本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國(guó)投資結(jié)構(gòu)及其與生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)系研究　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 投資 生產(chǎn) 模型 結(jié)構(gòu)

【摘要】：固定資產(chǎn)投資是當(dāng)年GDP的重要組成部分，能夠通過乘數(shù)作用拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，形成未來生產(chǎn)和服務(wù)能力，提供就業(yè)崗位，促進(jìn)消費(fèi)，在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中具有重要作用；同時(shí)投資又是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的三駕馬車中最活躍的變量，穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)必須穩(wěn)投資，成為各地政府的共識(shí)；現(xiàn)階段經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)失衡的主要原因是投資結(jié)構(gòu)的失衡，通過投資的存量和增量變動(dòng)，是優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的根本方法，所以研究投資和投資結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響是非常重要的。 全文分為五部分:第一部分是引言,包括研究背景和選題的意義，國(guó)內(nèi)外研究評(píng)介，文章的結(jié)構(gòu)安排與創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)。第二部分是中國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和投資結(jié)構(gòu)的變遷，通過投資結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的分析，來揭示我國(guó)投資結(jié)構(gòu)和生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)的變動(dòng)規(guī)律，并分析其中的問題。第三部分是計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型的實(shí)證研究,主要通過建立投資的加速模型、存量調(diào)整模型、中國(guó)投資函數(shù)模型，比較各模型的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)，從而確定一個(gè)描述中國(guó)投資總量的合理模型，并進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。第四部分是投入產(chǎn)出模型模型的實(shí)證研究,主要討論1987年、1992年、1997年、2002年、2007年五張投入產(chǎn)出表中各行業(yè)的投資誘發(fā)系數(shù)的變動(dòng)，并進(jìn)行排序找出投資誘發(fā)系數(shù)的變動(dòng)規(guī)律，預(yù)測(cè)了2012年的各行業(yè)的投資誘發(fā)系數(shù)；理論建模與實(shí)證分析結(jié)合在一起,將投入產(chǎn)出模型與計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型有機(jī)結(jié)合在一起,并進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析、結(jié)構(gòu)分析。第五部分通過全文分析的結(jié)論，給予政策建議。 本文主要特點(diǎn)與創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)是通過世界各國(guó)人均投資的比較，以及理論分析得出中國(guó)投資率并不過高的結(jié)論，利用最新和較全面的數(shù)據(jù)比較了歷年投資結(jié)構(gòu)和生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)的變化，并結(jié)合投資誘發(fā)系數(shù)的變化來分析原因，預(yù)測(cè)了2012年的投資誘發(fā)系數(shù)，建立了中國(guó)投資的計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型,研究了中國(guó)投資的規(guī)律并進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，將計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型與投入產(chǎn)出模型相結(jié)合，并進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)。
[Abstract]:Fixed asset investment is an important part of GDP in that year, which can stimulate economic growth through multiplier, form future production and service capacity, provide jobs and promote consumption. Plays an important role in the development of national economy; At the same time, investment is the most active variable in the troika of economic growth. The main reason of the imbalance of economic structure at present is the imbalance of investment structure, which is the fundamental method to optimize the industrial structure through the change of stock and increment of investment. So it is very important to study the influence of investment and investment structure on production structure. The full text is divided into five parts: the first part is the introduction, including the research background and the significance of the topic, domestic and foreign research reviews, the structure of the article and innovation. The second part is the changes of industrial structure and investment structure in China. Through the analysis of investment structure and industrial structure, this paper reveals the changing law of investment structure and production structure in China, and analyzes the problems. The third part is the empirical study of econometric model. Mainly through the establishment of investment acceleration model, stock adjustment model, China investment function model, compare the advantages and disadvantages of each model, so as to determine a reasonable model to describe the total amount of investment in China. The 4th part is an empirical study of the input-output model, which mainly discusses 1987, 1992, 1997, 1997. In 2007, five input-output tables show the change of investment inducement coefficient of each industry, and find out the law of change of investment inducement coefficient in order, and predict the investment inducement coefficient of each industry in 2012; Theoretical modeling and empirical analysis are combined, the input-output model and econometric model are organically combined, and the comparative analysis, structural analysis. 5th through the conclusion of the full text analysis. Give policy advice. The main features and innovations of this paper are the comparison of the per capita investment in different countries and the conclusion that the investment rate of China is not too high. Based on the latest and more comprehensive data, this paper compares the changes of investment structure and production structure over the years, analyzes the reasons for the change of investment inducement coefficient, and forecasts the investment inducement coefficient in 2012. The econometric model of Chinese investment is established, and the law of Chinese investment is studied and forecasted. The econometric model and the input-output model are combined and forecasted.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F124

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