本文關(guān)鍵詞：昆明國際陸港物流績效評(píng)價(jià)及動(dòng)力學(xué)仿真研究　出處：《昆明理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 國際陸港 物流績效 評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系 陸港—城市系統(tǒng) 系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)

【摘要】：隨著城市經(jīng)濟(jì)外向型的大力推進(jìn),內(nèi)陸地區(qū)國際貿(mào)易市場競爭不斷加劇,國際陸港的建設(shè)和發(fā)展,不僅能促進(jìn)內(nèi)陸區(qū)域外向型經(jīng)濟(jì)加速發(fā)展,還能改善物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè),提高物流效率和降低物流成本,有效地增加物流供給能力,滿足區(qū)域城市交通運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)和國際物流發(fā)展的需求。然而,國際陸港的建設(shè)和發(fā)展已呈現(xiàn)出些許弊端,大量土地資源和資金的投入致使盲目建設(shè),缺少行業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化體系致使國際陸港的物流作業(yè)紊亂,物流效率低于規(guī)劃目標(biāo),同時(shí),國際陸港與城市的相互關(guān)系比較模糊,缺乏整體性和系統(tǒng)性聯(lián)系。因此,如何構(gòu)建和完善國際陸港物流績效評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系己成為國際陸港提高物流效率,實(shí)現(xiàn)快速發(fā)展急需解決的問題,同時(shí),如何正確和全面認(rèn)識(shí)國際陸港與城市的系統(tǒng)內(nèi)在聯(lián)系,對(duì)于指導(dǎo)陸港—城市協(xié)同建設(shè)發(fā)展,推動(dòng)城市物流產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展和促進(jìn)區(qū)域國際貿(mào)易經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展具有不言而喻的戰(zhàn)略意義。 本文首先闡述國際陸港理論部分,對(duì)其概念、分類等進(jìn)行改善和補(bǔ)充,同時(shí)對(duì)其功能以及形成模式進(jìn)行初步探討；分析了國內(nèi)外國際陸港的建設(shè)與發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,給出其發(fā)展制約因素；基于演化博弈理論,提出國際陸港演化博弈模型,探討國際陸港的演化發(fā)展方向。在綜合歸納物流績效理論的基礎(chǔ)上,明確了國際陸港物流績效評(píng)價(jià)基礎(chǔ)理論知識(shí)。 其次,結(jié)合一般評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)建立原則,闡述了基于平衡計(jì)分卡理論的指標(biāo)選取方法,并對(duì)其改進(jìn),從宏觀層面構(gòu)建國際陸港物流績效評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系；采用熵值法和灰色關(guān)聯(lián)綜合分析法,以5個(gè)陸港城市為例,進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)價(jià),得出陸港城市物流績效的排序,分析其績效結(jié)果。 最后,基于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)理論,模擬國際陸港—城市復(fù)合系統(tǒng),對(duì)系統(tǒng)中的邊界條件進(jìn)行因果關(guān)系分析,建立陸港—城市系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)流圖；同時(shí),以昆明國際陸港為例,使用Vensim PLE軟件構(gòu)建系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型,應(yīng)用歷史數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行多次模擬檢驗(yàn),明確了各變量的數(shù)學(xué)方程式。對(duì)昆明市陸港—城市系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行一般模擬,分析系統(tǒng)現(xiàn)狀和未來發(fā)展,通過政策模擬,并對(duì)比兩次模擬結(jié)果,對(duì)各變量的靈敏度進(jìn)行分析,同時(shí),結(jié)合區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境,提出促進(jìn)昆明國際陸港發(fā)展的對(duì)策與建議。
[Abstract]:With the development of export-oriented urban economy, the competition of international trade market in inland areas is becoming more and more intense. The construction and development of international dry ports can not only accelerate the development of export-oriented economy in inland regions. It can also improve the construction of logistics infrastructure, improve logistics efficiency and reduce logistics costs, effectively increase logistics supply capacity, meet the needs of regional urban transport networks and international logistics development. The construction and development of international dry ports have shown some drawbacks, a large number of land resources and capital investment led to blind construction, the lack of industry standardization system led to the international dry ports logistics operations disorder. Logistics efficiency is lower than the planning goal, at the same time, the relationship between international dry ports and cities is vague, lack of integrity and systematic connection. How to construct and improve the performance evaluation index system of international dry port logistics has become an urgent problem to be solved to improve logistics efficiency and realize rapid development of international dry port. How to correctly and comprehensively understand the internal relationship between the international dry port and the city system will guide the development of the dry port-city coordinated construction. It is of strategic significance to promote the development of urban logistics industry and the development of regional international trade economy. In this paper, the theoretical part of the international dry port is first elaborated, its concept, classification and so on are improved and supplemented, at the same time, the function and the formation mode of the dry port are discussed preliminarily. This paper analyzes the present situation of the construction and development of international dry ports at home and abroad, and gives the restrictive factors for its development. Based on the evolutionary game theory, this paper puts forward the evolution game model of international dry ports, and discusses the evolution direction of international dry ports. Defined the international dry port logistics performance evaluation basic theoretical knowledge. Secondly, combined with the general evaluation index establishment principle, elaborated the balanced scorecard theory based on the index selection method, and improved it, from the macro level to build the international dry port logistics performance evaluation index system; Taking five dry port cities as an example, the comprehensive evaluation of logistics performance of dry port cities is carried out by using entropy method and grey relational comprehensive analysis method. The ranking of logistics performance of dry port cities is obtained, and the results of performance analysis are analyzed. Finally, based on the theory of system dynamics, the international dry port-city composite system is simulated, and the boundary conditions in the system are analyzed by causality analysis, and the dynamic flow diagram of dry port-city system is established. At the same time, taking Kunming International dry Port as an example, the system dynamics model is constructed by using Vensim PLE software, and the historical data are used to carry out many simulation tests. The mathematical equations of each variable are defined. The general simulation of Kunming dry port-city system is carried out, and the present situation and future development of the system are analyzed. Through policy simulation, the results of two simulations are compared. The sensitivity of each variable is analyzed, and the countermeasures and suggestions to promote the development of Kunming International dry Port are put forward according to the regional economic environment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F259.27

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