本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于綜合模擬預(yù)警法的重慶市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警研究　出處：《重慶理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警 綜合模擬法 ARIMA模型

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)作為我國重要的消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)和投資市場(chǎng)，其發(fā)展趨勢(shì)一直備受關(guān)注。隨著住房制度的改革和城市化進(jìn)程的加快，近幾年我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)取得了較快的發(fā)展，市場(chǎng)呈現(xiàn)出供銷兩旺的局面。一方面，房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資額占固定資產(chǎn)投資比重不斷上升，與房地產(chǎn)相關(guān)的貸款余額也快速上升；另一方面，商品房價(jià)格也大幅度上漲，國內(nèi)外關(guān)于目前房價(jià)是否合理、房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)是否存在泡沫的討論也由此展開。近年來，隨著城市化進(jìn)程的加快以及重慶整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，農(nóng)村人口的轉(zhuǎn)移以及外來人口的增加為重慶的城市發(fā)展和房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)帶來了機(jī)遇。與此同時(shí)，越來越多的開發(fā)企業(yè)和投機(jī)者進(jìn)入重慶市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)，使得重慶市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展環(huán)境愈加復(fù)雜，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源也隨之增加。因此洞悉房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)可能存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)而采取有效的規(guī)避措施，對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)利益相關(guān)者而言就顯得愈加重要。 本文首先介紹了房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警研究的一般理論，并詳細(xì)分析了房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的形成原因。其次，本文對(duì)重慶市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了較為詳細(xì)的分析，并認(rèn)為當(dāng)前重慶市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)整體運(yùn)行較為平穩(wěn)。結(jié)合重慶市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展的這一現(xiàn)狀，，本文運(yùn)用文獻(xiàn)統(tǒng)計(jì)法與因子分析法結(jié)合重慶市房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀，從房地產(chǎn)業(yè)同國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的協(xié)調(diào)關(guān)系、房地產(chǎn)業(yè)自身增長速度、房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)供求狀態(tài)以及房地產(chǎn)自身結(jié)構(gòu)的協(xié)調(diào)關(guān)系四個(gè)方面出發(fā)構(gòu)建了重慶市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警的指標(biāo)體系。最后，研究結(jié)合重慶市2002-2013年的房地產(chǎn)相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，采用綜合模預(yù)警擬法以及自回歸移動(dòng)平均模型對(duì)2014-2015年的重慶市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了綜合預(yù)警。結(jié)果顯示，2014年至2015年重慶市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)將延續(xù)2013年下半年的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)持續(xù)走高，且極有可能在2015年突破警戒線出現(xiàn)市場(chǎng)過熱。為防止重慶市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大，文章最后嘗試從房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)與政府兩個(gè)方面給出了相應(yīng)的規(guī)避措施。
[Abstract]:The real estate market as an important consumer market and investment market in China, its development trend has been paid close attention to. With the reform of housing system and the acceleration of urbanization process. In recent years, China's real estate industry has made rapid development, the market presents a situation of both supply and marketing. On the one hand, the investment in real estate development has been increasing in the proportion of fixed assets investment. The balance of loans related to real estate also rose rapidly; On the other hand, the price of commercial housing has also increased substantially, the domestic and foreign on whether the current housing prices are reasonable, whether there is a bubble in the real estate market has also been discussed in recent years. With the acceleration of urbanization and the development of Chongqing's overall economy, the transfer of rural population and the increase of foreign population have brought opportunities for Chongqing's urban development and real estate development. More and more development enterprises and speculators enter Chongqing real estate market, which makes the development environment of Chongqing real estate market more complex. Therefore, it is more important for the stakeholders in the real estate market to understand the possible risks in the real estate market and take effective measures to avoid them. This paper first introduces the general theory of real estate market risk early warning, and analyzes the formation of real estate market risk in detail. Secondly. This paper has carried on the detailed analysis to the Chongqing real estate market development present situation, and considered the Chongqing real estate market as a whole to run relatively smoothly, unifies this present situation which the Chongqing real estate market develops. This article uses the literature statistics method and the factor analysis method unifies the Chongqing real estate economy development present situation, from the real estate industry and the national economy coordination relations, the real estate industry own growth speed. Real estate market supply and demand as well as the coordination of the real estate structure of the four aspects of the construction of Chongqing real estate market risk warning index system. The study combines the real estate related data of Chongqing from 2002 to 2013. This paper uses the synthetic model early warning method and the autoregressive moving average model to carry on the comprehensive early warning to the real estate market risk of Chongqing in 2014-2015. The result shows. 2014 to 2015 Chongqing real estate market will continue to 2013's second half of the development trend continued to rise. And it is very likely to break through the warning line in 2015 and appear market overheating. In order to prevent the risk of the real estate market in Chongqing to further expand. Finally, this paper tries to give the corresponding evading measures from two aspects of real estate development enterprises and government.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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