本文關鍵詞：基于綜合模擬預警法的重慶市房地產市場風險預警研究　出處：《重慶理工大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 房地產市場 風險預警 綜合模擬法 ARIMA模型

【摘要】：房地產市場作為我國重要的消費市場和投資市場，其發(fā)展趨勢一直備受關注。隨著住房制度的改革和城市化進程的加快，近幾年我國房地產業(yè)取得了較快的發(fā)展，市場呈現(xiàn)出供銷兩旺的局面。一方面，房地產開發(fā)投資額占固定資產投資比重不斷上升，與房地產相關的貸款余額也快速上升；另一方面，商品房價格也大幅度上漲，國內外關于目前房價是否合理、房地產市場是否存在泡沫的討論也由此展開。近年來，隨著城市化進程的加快以及重慶整體經濟的發(fā)展，農村人口的轉移以及外來人口的增加為重慶的城市發(fā)展和房地產開發(fā)帶來了機遇。與此同時，越來越多的開發(fā)企業(yè)和投機者進入重慶市房地產市場，使得重慶市房地產市場的發(fā)展環(huán)境愈加復雜，風險源也隨之增加。因此洞悉房地產市場可能存在的風險進而采取有效的規(guī)避措施，對房地產市場利益相關者而言就顯得愈加重要。 本文首先介紹了房地產市場風險預警研究的一般理論，并詳細分析了房地產市場風險的形成原因。其次，本文對重慶市房地產市場發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀進行了較為詳細的分析，并認為當前重慶市房地產市場整體運行較為平穩(wěn)。結合重慶市房地產市場發(fā)展的這一現(xiàn)狀，，本文運用文獻統(tǒng)計法與因子分析法結合重慶市房地產經濟發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀，從房地產業(yè)同國民經濟的協(xié)調關系、房地產業(yè)自身增長速度、房地產市場供求狀態(tài)以及房地產自身結構的協(xié)調關系四個方面出發(fā)構建了重慶市房地產市場風險預警的指標體系。最后，研究結合重慶市2002-2013年的房地產相關數(shù)據(jù)，采用綜合模預警擬法以及自回歸移動平均模型對2014-2015年的重慶市房地產市場風險進行了綜合預警。結果顯示，2014年至2015年重慶市房地產市場將延續(xù)2013年下半年的發(fā)展趨勢持續(xù)走高，且極有可能在2015年突破警戒線出現(xiàn)市場過熱。為防止重慶市房地產市場風險進一步擴大，文章最后嘗試從房地產開發(fā)企業(yè)與政府兩個方面給出了相應的規(guī)避措施。
[Abstract]:The real estate market as an important consumer market and investment market in China, its development trend has been paid close attention to. With the reform of housing system and the acceleration of urbanization process. In recent years, China's real estate industry has made rapid development, the market presents a situation of both supply and marketing. On the one hand, the investment in real estate development has been increasing in the proportion of fixed assets investment. The balance of loans related to real estate also rose rapidly; On the other hand, the price of commercial housing has also increased substantially, the domestic and foreign on whether the current housing prices are reasonable, whether there is a bubble in the real estate market has also been discussed in recent years. With the acceleration of urbanization and the development of Chongqing's overall economy, the transfer of rural population and the increase of foreign population have brought opportunities for Chongqing's urban development and real estate development. More and more development enterprises and speculators enter Chongqing real estate market, which makes the development environment of Chongqing real estate market more complex. Therefore, it is more important for the stakeholders in the real estate market to understand the possible risks in the real estate market and take effective measures to avoid them. This paper first introduces the general theory of real estate market risk early warning, and analyzes the formation of real estate market risk in detail. Secondly. This paper has carried on the detailed analysis to the Chongqing real estate market development present situation, and considered the Chongqing real estate market as a whole to run relatively smoothly, unifies this present situation which the Chongqing real estate market develops. This article uses the literature statistics method and the factor analysis method unifies the Chongqing real estate economy development present situation, from the real estate industry and the national economy coordination relations, the real estate industry own growth speed. Real estate market supply and demand as well as the coordination of the real estate structure of the four aspects of the construction of Chongqing real estate market risk warning index system. The study combines the real estate related data of Chongqing from 2002 to 2013. This paper uses the synthetic model early warning method and the autoregressive moving average model to carry on the comprehensive early warning to the real estate market risk of Chongqing in 2014-2015. The result shows. 2014 to 2015 Chongqing real estate market will continue to 2013's second half of the development trend continued to rise. And it is very likely to break through the warning line in 2015 and appear market overheating. In order to prevent the risk of the real estate market in Chongqing to further expand. Finally, this paper tries to give the corresponding evading measures from two aspects of real estate development enterprises and government.
【學位授予單位】：重慶理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23

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