不同維度數(shù)據(jù)下的能源經(jīng)濟(jì)建模及中國(guó)能耗峰值預(yù)測(cè)研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-05-17 04:17
【摘要】：開展能源經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)在規(guī)律與趨勢(shì)研究是制定能源戰(zhàn)略的基礎(chǔ)性工作。國(guó)際經(jīng)驗(yàn)值得借鑒或警示,但國(guó)家、行業(yè)、技術(shù)等異質(zhì)性決定了任何單個(gè)或少數(shù)幾個(gè)國(guó)家能源消費(fèi)的歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)都很難單獨(dú)作為其他國(guó)家的參考。本文采用不同維度的數(shù)據(jù)以刻畫這些異質(zhì)性,通過(guò)建立自適應(yīng)分段計(jì)量模型,探索更多國(guó)家和部門能源消費(fèi)軌跡差異及其成因,并形成決策參考。自適應(yīng)分段計(jì)量模型通過(guò)對(duì)入均GDP(：人均投資和人均消費(fèi))的分段回歸,得到由多段不同斜率的線段組成的擬合線,在結(jié)果得到之前,并不能預(yù)期其形狀和趨勢(shì)。這避免了常用的二次、三次函數(shù)模型對(duì)模型形式的提前主觀設(shè)定。針對(duì)經(jīng)驗(yàn)研究中通常存在的穩(wěn)健性問(wèn)題,本文對(duì)各部分研究的分段方法、分段數(shù)、控制變量等均進(jìn)行穩(wěn)健性檢驗(yàn),并對(duì)各部分的峰值預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果進(jìn)行相互比較,以檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果的穩(wěn)健性。本文數(shù)據(jù)不僅包括60多個(gè)大國(guó)1960年以來(lái)的面板數(shù)據(jù),也包括“60多個(gè)國(guó)家×50多年時(shí)間×5個(gè)行業(yè)”的三維數(shù)據(jù)。增加了一個(gè)行業(yè)維度,考慮到了行業(yè)間的關(guān)聯(lián)、擴(kuò)充了研究中的基礎(chǔ)信息量、增強(qiáng)了結(jié)論的統(tǒng)計(jì)顯著性,同時(shí)也控制了更多的不可觀測(cè)因素。主要內(nèi)容包括：(1)以總量能耗為研究對(duì)象,討論能源消費(fèi)隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的歷史軌跡,結(jié)果表明,國(guó)際平均意義上,人均能耗首先隨人均GDP增加而增加,在人均GDP達(dá)到1.9萬(wàn)美元左右(2005年不變價(jià),購(gòu)買力平價(jià)法,下同),人均能耗開始有下降趨勢(shì)。考慮到能耗主要是由GDP中的投資驅(qū)動(dòng)的,有必要從需求側(cè)出發(fā),區(qū)分投資和消費(fèi)對(duì)能源消費(fèi)的作用效果,依據(jù)國(guó)際經(jīng)驗(yàn)討論中國(guó)未來(lái)投資率變化：對(duì)能耗的影響。高投資率會(huì)導(dǎo)致較高的能耗水平以及較晚的達(dá)峰時(shí)間。依據(jù)“能耗一投資”模型,得到高投資率情景下,我國(guó)能耗在2032年達(dá)到峰值,峰值量為60億噸標(biāo)準(zhǔn)油(對(duì)應(yīng)人均GDP為2.9萬(wàn)美元)；在低投資率情景下,在2029年達(dá)峰,峰值量為53.5億噸標(biāo)準(zhǔn)袖(對(duì)應(yīng)人均GDP為2.5萬(wàn)美元)。(2)以公路交通部門為研究對(duì)象,分析公路交通能耗的國(guó)際歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn),并據(jù)此預(yù)測(cè)原金磚四國(guó)未來(lái)公路交通的能源消費(fèi)。結(jié)論表明：在國(guó)際平均意義上,隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),人均公路交通能耗先增加,在達(dá)到一個(gè)峰值點(diǎn)(人均GDP等于1.9萬(wàn)美元)后,開始有下降趨勢(shì)。中國(guó)公路交通能耗將在2039年達(dá)到峰值,峰值能耗為6.1億噸標(biāo)油,對(duì)應(yīng)的人均GDP為3.9萬(wàn)美元。(3)以分部門能耗為對(duì)象,將國(guó)家、行業(yè)、時(shí)間三個(gè)維度的能耗數(shù)據(jù)集結(jié)在一個(gè)統(tǒng)一的分析框架內(nèi),在考慮產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)以及多類別不可觀測(cè)因素的基礎(chǔ)上討論各個(gè)行業(yè)的能耗歷史規(guī)律,并據(jù)此預(yù)測(cè)中國(guó)各部門能耗。結(jié)論表明,在國(guó)際一般意義上,總體人均能耗及分部門人均能耗(除其他部門)在經(jīng)濟(jì)水平較低階段均隨著人均GDP增長(zhǎng)而增加,在達(dá)到某一經(jīng)濟(jì)水平后逐漸趨緩甚至下降。在低投資率情境下,我國(guó)總能源消費(fèi)量在2032年達(dá)到,約為151億噸標(biāo)準(zhǔn)油(對(duì)應(yīng)人均GDP為2.9萬(wàn)美元)；工業(yè)部門在2023年達(dá)到峰值,峰值量為12億噸標(biāo)準(zhǔn)油(1.8萬(wàn)美元)；居民部門在2031年達(dá)到峰值,峰值量為7.2億噸標(biāo)準(zhǔn)油(2.7萬(wàn)美元)；交通部門在2036年達(dá)到峰值,峰值量為6億噸標(biāo)準(zhǔn)油0.5萬(wàn)美元)。本文的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果是對(duì)“自然”情景的預(yù)測(cè)。如果今后我國(guó)采取約束力更強(qiáng)的節(jié)能減排政策,實(shí)際用能量將比本文的預(yù)測(cè)值低。本研究結(jié)果也為氣候政策綜合評(píng)估模型提供了一個(gè)比較基準(zhǔn)。
[Abstract]:The study of the internal law and trend of energy economy is the basic work to develop energy strategy. International experience is worth learning or warning, but the heterogeneity of the country, industry, technology and so on determines that any single or a few of the historical experiences of energy consumption in a few countries are very difficult to serve as a reference for other countries. In this paper, data of different dimensions are used to describe these heterogeneity, and through the establishment of a self-adaptive segmentation model, the difference and the origin of energy consumption in more countries and departments are explored, and the decision-making reference is formed. The adaptive segment measurement model obtains the fitting line composed of segments with different slopes by the segment regression to the average GDP (per capita investment and per capita consumption), and the shape and the trend cannot be expected before the result is obtained. This avoids the usual quadratic and cubic function models in advance subjective setting of the model. In this paper, the robustness of the method, the number of segments, the control variables and the like of each part of the study are tested for robustness, and the peak prediction results of each part are compared with each other to check the robustness of the results. The data not only includes the panel data of more than 60 big countries since 1960, but also the three-dimensional data of the "More than 60 countries have over 50 years of time and five industries". An industry dimension is added, the inter-industry association is taken into account, the basic information amount in the research is expanded, the statistical significance of the conclusion is enhanced, and more non-observable factors are also controlled. The main contents include: (1) The total energy consumption is the research object, and the historical track of energy consumption with the development of the economy is discussed. The results show that the per capita energy consumption is first increased with the increase of the per capita GDP in the international average sense, and the per capita GDP is around US $19,000 (the constant price of 2005). The purchasing power parity (PPP), the same below), the per capita energy consumption begins to decline. Considering that the energy consumption is mainly driven by the investment in GDP, it is necessary to distinguish the effect of investment and consumption on energy consumption from the demand side, and discuss the change of the future investment rate of China according to the international experience: the effect on energy consumption. High investment rates lead to higher levels of energy consumption and later time to peak. According to the "energy consumption one investment" model, under the condition of high investment rate, the energy consumption of China reached the peak in 2032, and the peak value is 6 billion tons of standard oil (the corresponding per capita GDP is US $2.9 million); in the low investment rate scenario, at the peak of 2029, The peak value is 53.5 million tons of standard sleeves (corresponding per capita GDP of US $25,000). (2) The highway traffic department is the research object, and the international historical experience of the highway traffic energy consumption is analyzed, and the energy consumption of the future highway traffic of the former BRIC is predicted accordingly. The conclusion shows that, with the growth of the economy, the energy consumption per capita is increased firstly, and the trend of falling is started after a peak point is reached (per capita GDP is equal to US $1.9 million). China's road traffic energy consumption will reach its peak in 2039, with a peak energy consumption of 6.1 billion tons of standard oil, and the corresponding per capita GDP is $3.9 million. (3) the energy consumption data of the three dimensions of the national, the industry and the time are assembled in a unified analysis framework by using the energy consumption of the sub-sector as an object, and the energy consumption history rule of each industry is discussed based on the industrial association and the multi-category non-observable factors, And the energy consumption of each department in China is predicted accordingly. The conclusion shows that, in the international general sense, the overall per capita energy consumption and the per-capita energy consumption of the sub-sector (other than other departments) increase with the increase of the per capita GDP in the lower stage of the economic level, and gradually decrease or even decrease after reaching a certain economic level. In the context of low investment rate, China's total energy consumption was reached in 2032, about 151 billion tons of standard oil (per capita GDP of $2.9 million); the industrial sector reached its peak in 2023 with a peak of 1.2 billion tons of standard oil ($180 million); and the population sector reached its peak in 2031. The peak amount is 7.2 million tons of standard oil ($2.7 million); the transport sector has reached its peak in 2036 with a peak of 600 million tons of standard oil (US $0.5 million). The prediction of this paper is the prediction of the "natural" scenario. If a more binding energy-saving and emission-reduction policy is adopted in the future, the actual energy will be lower than the predicted value of this paper. The results of this study also provide a baseline for the climate policy integrated assessment model.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F206
本文編號(hào)：2478795
[Abstract]:The study of the internal law and trend of energy economy is the basic work to develop energy strategy. International experience is worth learning or warning, but the heterogeneity of the country, industry, technology and so on determines that any single or a few of the historical experiences of energy consumption in a few countries are very difficult to serve as a reference for other countries. In this paper, data of different dimensions are used to describe these heterogeneity, and through the establishment of a self-adaptive segmentation model, the difference and the origin of energy consumption in more countries and departments are explored, and the decision-making reference is formed. The adaptive segment measurement model obtains the fitting line composed of segments with different slopes by the segment regression to the average GDP (per capita investment and per capita consumption), and the shape and the trend cannot be expected before the result is obtained. This avoids the usual quadratic and cubic function models in advance subjective setting of the model. In this paper, the robustness of the method, the number of segments, the control variables and the like of each part of the study are tested for robustness, and the peak prediction results of each part are compared with each other to check the robustness of the results. The data not only includes the panel data of more than 60 big countries since 1960, but also the three-dimensional data of the "More than 60 countries have over 50 years of time and five industries". An industry dimension is added, the inter-industry association is taken into account, the basic information amount in the research is expanded, the statistical significance of the conclusion is enhanced, and more non-observable factors are also controlled. The main contents include: (1) The total energy consumption is the research object, and the historical track of energy consumption with the development of the economy is discussed. The results show that the per capita energy consumption is first increased with the increase of the per capita GDP in the international average sense, and the per capita GDP is around US $19,000 (the constant price of 2005). The purchasing power parity (PPP), the same below), the per capita energy consumption begins to decline. Considering that the energy consumption is mainly driven by the investment in GDP, it is necessary to distinguish the effect of investment and consumption on energy consumption from the demand side, and discuss the change of the future investment rate of China according to the international experience: the effect on energy consumption. High investment rates lead to higher levels of energy consumption and later time to peak. According to the "energy consumption one investment" model, under the condition of high investment rate, the energy consumption of China reached the peak in 2032, and the peak value is 6 billion tons of standard oil (the corresponding per capita GDP is US $2.9 million); in the low investment rate scenario, at the peak of 2029, The peak value is 53.5 million tons of standard sleeves (corresponding per capita GDP of US $25,000). (2) The highway traffic department is the research object, and the international historical experience of the highway traffic energy consumption is analyzed, and the energy consumption of the future highway traffic of the former BRIC is predicted accordingly. The conclusion shows that, with the growth of the economy, the energy consumption per capita is increased firstly, and the trend of falling is started after a peak point is reached (per capita GDP is equal to US $1.9 million). China's road traffic energy consumption will reach its peak in 2039, with a peak energy consumption of 6.1 billion tons of standard oil, and the corresponding per capita GDP is $3.9 million. (3) the energy consumption data of the three dimensions of the national, the industry and the time are assembled in a unified analysis framework by using the energy consumption of the sub-sector as an object, and the energy consumption history rule of each industry is discussed based on the industrial association and the multi-category non-observable factors, And the energy consumption of each department in China is predicted accordingly. The conclusion shows that, in the international general sense, the overall per capita energy consumption and the per-capita energy consumption of the sub-sector (other than other departments) increase with the increase of the per capita GDP in the lower stage of the economic level, and gradually decrease or even decrease after reaching a certain economic level. In the context of low investment rate, China's total energy consumption was reached in 2032, about 151 billion tons of standard oil (per capita GDP of $2.9 million); the industrial sector reached its peak in 2023 with a peak of 1.2 billion tons of standard oil ($180 million); and the population sector reached its peak in 2031. The peak amount is 7.2 million tons of standard oil ($2.7 million); the transport sector has reached its peak in 2036 with a peak of 600 million tons of standard oil (US $0.5 million). The prediction of this paper is the prediction of the "natural" scenario. If a more binding energy-saving and emission-reduction policy is adopted in the future, the actual energy will be lower than the predicted value of this paper. The results of this study also provide a baseline for the climate policy integrated assessment model.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F206
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