【摘要】：在西方發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家中,存貨投資在國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)中所占的比重很小,僅僅占到GDP的0.5%左右。但是,在經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的過(guò)程中,經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的變化與存貨投資的變化又緊密地聯(lián)系在一起。經(jīng)濟(jì)周期性的波動(dòng)與存貨投資周期性的波動(dòng)如影隨形,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)生波動(dòng)的同時(shí),存貨投資往往也劇烈地變動(dòng)。Blinder曾說(shuō)過(guò),只有透徹地了解了企業(yè)的存貨行為后,才有可能了解經(jīng)濟(jì)的周期性。存貨又是企業(yè)的一項(xiàng)重要資產(chǎn),原材料存貨直接影響產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn),產(chǎn)成品存貨直接影響產(chǎn)品的銷售,從而間接影響了企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)狀況和經(jīng)營(yíng)成果,影響到公司價(jià)值的實(shí)現(xiàn)�？梢�(jiàn),存貨投資不僅在宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)中扮演著重要的角色,在微觀企業(yè)層面也發(fā)揮著巨大的作用。對(duì)于存貨投資問(wèn)題,諸多國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者將研究的重點(diǎn)放在經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)層面上,從宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)角度,利用宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)研究存貨投資行為。本文創(chuàng)新性地選取了新的角度,從微觀企業(yè)層面研究上市公司的存貨投資行為,包括上市公司存貨投資行為的特征、存貨投資的行業(yè)差異、存貨投資與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的關(guān)系,以及存貨投資行為對(duì)企業(yè)價(jià)值的影響。本文利用2003-2014年我國(guó)上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,建立了一個(gè)多元回歸模型,以托賓Q值為被解釋變量,以期末存貨占資產(chǎn)總額的比例為解釋變量,以資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率、凈資產(chǎn)收益率、成長(zhǎng)性、企業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)性質(zhì)、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)周期等為控制變量。利用SPSS19.0進(jìn)行了描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)分析、相關(guān)性分析、回歸分析以及穩(wěn)健性檢驗(yàn),最終得到實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)的結(jié)果,并進(jìn)行了總結(jié)。統(tǒng)計(jì)分析發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)2003年到2014年全部樣本公司的期末存貨占資產(chǎn)總額的比例年平均數(shù)為0.22,全部樣本公司的年度存貨投資變化率的年平均數(shù)為0.36。(2)2003年到2014年行業(yè)間的期末存貨占資產(chǎn)總額比例的年平均數(shù)差距不大,行業(yè)間的年度存貨投資變化率的年平均數(shù)差異比較大。(3)2003年到2014年期末存貨占資產(chǎn)總額的比例的年均數(shù)與名義經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率、居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)、通貨膨脹率之間不存在顯著的相關(guān)關(guān)系。(4)2003年到2014年年度存貨投資變化率的年均數(shù)與名義經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率、居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)、通貨膨脹率之間不存在顯著的相關(guān)關(guān)系。實(shí)證研究發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)不論是國(guó)有企業(yè)還是非國(guó)有企業(yè),期末存貨占資產(chǎn)總額的比例與企業(yè)價(jià)值之間都存在著一種顯著的倒"U"型關(guān)系。非國(guó)有企業(yè)期末存貨占資產(chǎn)總額的比例對(duì)公司價(jià)值的影響比國(guó)有企業(yè)大。(2)在經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮時(shí)期,企業(yè)期末存貨占資產(chǎn)總額的比例與企業(yè)價(jià)值之間存在著一種顯著的倒"U"型關(guān)系;在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時(shí)期,企業(yè)期末存貨占資產(chǎn)總額的比例與企業(yè)價(jià)值之間存在著一種顯著的"U"型關(guān)系。
[Abstract]:In western developed countries, the share of inventory investment in (GDP) is very small, accounting for only about 0.5% of GDP. However, in the process of economic operation, the change of economic cycle is closely related to the change of inventory investment. The cyclical fluctuations of the economy and the cyclical fluctuations of inventory investment follow each other. At the same time, while the economy fluctuates, inventory investment often changes dramatically. Blinder once said that only after a thorough understanding of the inventory behavior of enterprises, It is possible to understand the periodicity of the economy. Inventory is an important asset of an enterprise. Raw material inventory directly affects the production of products, and finished product inventory directly affects the sales of products, which indirectly affects the financial situation and operating results of the enterprise, and affects the realization of the value of the company. It can be seen that inventory investment not only plays an important role in the macro-economy, but also plays a huge role in the micro-enterprise level. For inventory investment, many domestic and foreign scholars focus on the economic level, from the macro-economic point of view, using macroeconomic data to study the behavior of inventory investment. This paper innovatively selects a new angle to study the inventory investment behavior of listed companies from the micro-enterprise level, including the characteristics of inventory investment behavior of listed companies, the industry differences of inventory investment, and the relationship between inventory investment and macro-economy. And the impact of inventory investment behavior on the value of enterprises. This paper makes an empirical study on the financial data of listed companies in China from 2003 to 2014, and establishes a multiple regression model with Tobin Q value as the explained variable, the ratio of inventory to total assets as the explanatory variable, and the asset-liability ratio as the explanatory variable. The rate of return on net assets, growth, the economic nature of the enterprise, macroeconomic cycle and so on are control variables. Descriptive statistical analysis, correlation analysis, regression analysis and robustness test were carried out by using SPSS19.0. Finally, the results of empirical test were obtained and summarized. Statistical analysis found: (1) from 2003 to 2014, the annual average of closing inventory to total assets of all sample companies was 0.22, The annual average of the annual inventory investment change rate for all sample companies is 0.36. (2) there is little difference in the annual average ratio of closing inventory to total assets between 2003 and 2014 between industry and industry. The annual average change rate of annual inventory investment among industries varies greatly. (3) the average annual number of inventory as a proportion of total assets from 2003 to the end of 2014 is related to the nominal economic growth rate, and the consumer price index of residents. There is no significant correlation between inflation rate. (4) there is no significant correlation between the annual change rate of inventory investment from 2003 to 2014 and the nominal economic growth rate, consumer price index and inflation rate. The empirical study shows that: (1) there is a significant inverted "U" relationship between the ratio of inventory to total assets and the value of enterprises in both state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises. The ratio of inventory to total assets of non-state-owned enterprises at the end of the period has a greater impact on the value of the company than that of state-owned enterprises. (2) during the period of economic prosperity, There is a significant inverted "U" relationship between the proportion of inventory to the total assets at the end of the enterprise and the value of the enterprise. In the period of economic recession, there is a significant "U" relationship between the ratio of inventory to total assets and the value of the enterprise at the end of the period.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F832.51

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