【摘要】：匯率是一國貨幣對別國貨幣的比價,在一國的宏觀經(jīng)濟運行中具有重要的作用。匯率可以從多個方面反映出一國的經(jīng)濟運行的總體狀況,并且匯率同時作為貨幣政策的中介目標,對宏觀經(jīng)濟的調(diào)節(jié)和最終目標的實現(xiàn)也起著十分重要的作用。本文從一國匯率制度的形成機理著手,先是介紹了國際經(jīng)濟發(fā)展史上匯率制度發(fā)展的歷史概況,又接著分析了影響匯率形成和波動的主要因素,以考察一國的匯率制度與宏觀經(jīng)濟間的相互關(guān)系。本文主要從以下三個方面依次展開論述。首先,本文在查閱求證了大量研究人員的研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,分析了在宏觀經(jīng)濟指標中通貨膨脹率和經(jīng)濟增長率與一國匯率制度選擇之間的關(guān)系,然后從一國的宏觀經(jīng)濟內(nèi)部均衡和外部均衡出發(fā),在斯旺模型的基礎(chǔ)上,分析一國經(jīng)濟內(nèi)外均衡沖突的狀態(tài)下貨幣政策和匯率政策的各種搭配組合。接下來,本文又在分析了斯旺模型的局限性的問題之后,引入了經(jīng)濟學(xué)家拉津改進的“新斯旺模型”,進一步細分了在緩解內(nèi)外均衡沖突問題上宏觀經(jīng)濟政策的配合使用,以更加全面的視角分析和研究了宏觀經(jīng)濟政策和匯率政策的搭配問題。其次,本文選取了在亞太地區(qū)17個國家和地區(qū)(中國,文萊,智利,中國香港,印度尼西亞,日本,韓國,墨西哥,馬來西亞,秘魯,菲律賓,俄羅斯,新加坡,泰國,越南,巴布亞新幾內(nèi)亞,和中國臺北地區(qū))進行分析,先是運用Ghosh的匯率制度分類法概括地分析了這17個國家和地區(qū)1980年至2009年匯率制度大體的發(fā)展狀況,分析比較了這些國家和地區(qū)的匯率發(fā)展歷史和脈絡(luò),之后又在Ghosh等人的計量分析模型基礎(chǔ)上,本文對上述17個國家和地區(qū)自1980年至2009年的宏觀經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)進行實證分析,得出釘住匯率制度可以較有效地抑制通貨膨脹,而卻與經(jīng)濟增長呈現(xiàn)負相關(guān)的關(guān)系的結(jié)論。上述結(jié)論跟Levy-Yeyati和Sturzenegger的實證研究結(jié)果相符。第三,在以上分析和討論的基礎(chǔ)上,本文結(jié)合歷史理論發(fā)展和經(jīng)驗總結(jié),分析了中國當前內(nèi)部均衡和外部均衡的沖突問題,并在斯旺模型和新斯旺模型的理論分析基礎(chǔ)上,提出適合中國的政策搭配的可行性和局限性以及中國本外幣沖突的制度和政策根源。最后,在綜合以上的分析和論述之后,本文在總結(jié)以上東亞四個國家和地區(qū)的匯率改革和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展經(jīng)驗分析的基礎(chǔ)上,為中國的匯率政策和貨幣政策的改革和發(fā)展提出了一些建議。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate is the value of a country's currency to another country's currency, and plays an important role in a country's macroeconomic operation. Exchange rate can reflect the overall situation of a country's economy from many aspects, and exchange rate, as the intermediate target of monetary policy, also plays a very important role in the adjustment of macroeconomic and the realization of final goal. Starting from the formation mechanism of a country's exchange rate regime, this paper first introduces the historical overview of the development of exchange rate regime in the history of international economic development, and then analyzes the main factors affecting the formation and fluctuation of exchange rate. In order to examine a country's exchange rate system and macroeconomic relations. This paper mainly discusses from the following three aspects. Firstly, based on the research results of a large number of researchers, this paper analyzes the relationship between the rate of inflation and the rate of economic growth in macroeconomic indicators and the choice of a country's exchange rate regime. Based on Swan's model, this paper analyzes various combinations of monetary policy and exchange rate policy under the conflict of internal and external equilibrium of a country's economy. Then, after analyzing the limitations of Swan model, this paper introduces the new Swan model, which is improved by economist Rajin, and further subdivides the cooperative use of macroeconomic policies in alleviating the conflict between internal and external equilibrium. This paper analyzes and studies the matching of macroeconomic policy and exchange rate policy from a more comprehensive perspective. Secondly, this paper selects 17 countries and regions (China, Brunei, Chile, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Malaysia, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam) in the Asia-Pacific region. Papua New Guinea (and Taipei region of China), first of all, using Ghosh's classification of exchange rate regimes, analyzed the general development of the exchange rate regimes of these 17 countries and regions from 1980 to 2009. This paper analyzes and compares the history and context of exchange rate development in these countries and regions, and then, on the basis of the econometric analysis model of Ghosh et al., makes an empirical analysis of the macroeconomic data of the 17 countries and regions mentioned above from 1980 to 2009. It is concluded that the pegged exchange rate system can restrain inflation effectively, but has a negative correlation with economic growth. These conclusions are consistent with the empirical results of Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger. Thirdly, on the basis of the above analysis and discussion, this paper analyzes the conflict between internal and external equilibrium in China based on the historical theoretical development and experience, and based on the theoretical analysis of Swan model and new Swan model. This paper puts forward the feasibility and limitation of the policy collocation suitable for China, and the system and policy root of the conflict between local and foreign currency in China. Finally, after synthesizing the above analysis and discussion, this paper summarizes the experience of exchange rate reform and economic development of the above four East Asian countries and regions. Some suggestions are put forward for the reform and development of China's exchange rate policy and monetary policy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：對外經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F832.6

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