【摘要】：能源一直以來都是整個(gè)社會(huì)前進(jìn)與發(fā)展的物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ),經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展更是需要能源作為主要支撐點(diǎn)。隨著社會(huì)的不斷進(jìn)步和經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷發(fā)展,能源消費(fèi)需求快速增加的問題也隨之產(chǎn)生,例如:能源消費(fèi)總量大、利用效率低、不可再生資源儲(chǔ)存量逐漸減少以及由于能源的不合理消費(fèi)導(dǎo)致的環(huán)境污染問題。在近幾年的發(fā)展過程中這些問題逐漸引起了人們的關(guān)注。天津市的能源消費(fèi)一直是以煤炭、石油等為主要消費(fèi)方式,而太陽能、風(fēng)能等一些清潔能源的使用占比比較低。天津市作為"一帶一路"和"京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展"戰(zhàn)略的重要組成部分,其經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方向一直備受關(guān)注。如何使天津市的經(jīng)濟(jì)、能源、環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展是目前天津市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過程中的一個(gè)重要研究方向。因此需要對(duì)天津市的能源消費(fèi)與增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行研究,并對(duì)能源消費(fèi)的一些影響因素進(jìn)行分析,進(jìn)而達(dá)到為天津市的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與能源消費(fèi)提出一些可行性建議的目的。首先為了對(duì)天津市目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和能源消費(fèi)現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了解,本文對(duì)1990-2014年的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和能源消費(fèi)的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了描述統(tǒng)計(jì)。然后在對(duì)能源消費(fèi)、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)建立經(jīng)濟(jì)模型的基礎(chǔ)之上,采用了協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果關(guān)系以及脈沖響應(yīng)分析的計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)分析方法對(duì)兩者的關(guān)系進(jìn)行研究。最后又對(duì)能源強(qiáng)度和能源消費(fèi)總量按照不同的影響因素進(jìn)行因素分解。研究結(jié)果最終發(fā)現(xiàn),天津市的能源消費(fèi)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)數(shù)據(jù)通過了協(xié)整檢驗(yàn),即表明兩者存在某種長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系,但是格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)卻顯示兩者之間并沒有存在明顯的格蘭杰因果關(guān)系。在對(duì)天津市能源消費(fèi)強(qiáng)度后,得出的結(jié)論是:天津市的能源強(qiáng)度受到技術(shù)進(jìn)步因素的影響作用比較大,受產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的影響程度則比較小;同理在對(duì)能源消費(fèi)總量因素分解時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn),總產(chǎn)出是影響消費(fèi)總量的最主要因素,其次是技術(shù)進(jìn)步因素,再其次是產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變化的影響。同時(shí)在對(duì)2005-2014年的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析得出,天津市在近十年的發(fā)展的過程中,通過優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和提高科技水平等相關(guān)方面措施,能源強(qiáng)度和消費(fèi)總量都得到了較好的改善,節(jié)能減排工作取得了階段性的成果。最后,根據(jù)本文的研究結(jié)果,從產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和技術(shù)進(jìn)步兩個(gè)方面給出了一些針對(duì)能源消費(fèi)方面的一些可行性措施。
[Abstract]:Energy has always been the material foundation for the whole society to advance and develop, and the rapid development of economy needs energy as the main supporting point. With the continuous progress of society and the development of economy, the problem of rapid increase of energy consumption demand also arises, for example: the total amount of energy consumption is large, the utilization efficiency is low, The storage of non-renewable resources is decreasing gradually and the environmental pollution caused by unreasonable consumption of energy. In the process of development in recent years, these problems have gradually attracted people's attention. Tianjin's energy consumption has been coal, oil as the main consumption mode, while solar, wind energy and other clean energy use is relatively low. As an important part of the strategy of "Belt and Road" and "Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei coordinated development", Tianjin's economic development direction has been paid close attention to. How to make Tianjin's economy, energy and environment develop harmoniously is an important research direction in the process of Tianjin's economic development. Therefore, it is necessary to study the relationship between energy consumption and growth in Tianjin, and to analyze some influencing factors of energy consumption, and then put forward some feasible suggestions for Tianjin's economic development and energy consumption. In order to understand the current economic development and energy consumption in Tianjin, this paper describes the data of economic development and energy consumption from 1990 to 2014. Then, based on the economic model of energy consumption and economic growth, the relationship between them is studied by using co-integration test, Granger causality and impulse response analysis. Finally, the energy intensity and total energy consumption are decomposed according to different factors. Finally, it is found that the data of energy consumption and economic growth in Tianjin have passed the cointegration test, that is to say, there is a certain long-term equilibrium relationship between the two. But the Granger causality test shows that there is no obvious Granger causality between the two. After analyzing the intensity of energy consumption in Tianjin, the following conclusions are drawn: the energy intensity of Tianjin is greatly influenced by the factors of technological progress, and the influence of industrial structure adjustment is relatively small; When decomposing the factors of total energy consumption, it is found that the total output is the most important factor affecting the total consumption, followed by technological progress, and then the influence of the change of industrial structure. At the same time, through the analysis of the data from 2005 to 2014, it is concluded that the energy intensity and the total consumption of Tianjin have been improved better by optimizing the industrial structure and raising the level of science and technology during the past ten years of development. Energy conservation and emission reduction work has achieved periodic results. Finally, according to the research results of this paper, some feasible measures for energy consumption are given from two aspects: industrial structure adjustment and technological progress.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F426.2;F127

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