安徽省農(nóng)村信用社改制中的攀比效應(yīng)研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-04 20:34
【摘要】：改革開放以來,我國金融業(yè)取得了巨大成就,發(fā)展進(jìn)入加速期。但“金融排斥”問題卻始終是困擾我國金融業(yè)發(fā)展的難題。在二元經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)的背景下,國有商業(yè)銀行從農(nóng)村地區(qū)大量撤并機構(gòu)網(wǎng)點,郵政儲蓄銀行只存不貸,農(nóng)村信用社改革進(jìn)程緩慢等因素,導(dǎo)致農(nóng)村金融服務(wù)可得性較小,嚴(yán)重阻礙了“三農(nóng)”經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展,進(jìn)而拉大了城鄉(xiāng)差距。在國家發(fā)展普惠金融的總體要求下,急切需要破解農(nóng)村地區(qū)存在的金融排斥問題。國家積極引入出臺相應(yīng)政策,進(jìn)行農(nóng)村金融改革,構(gòu)建以需求為導(dǎo)向的農(nóng)村金融組織體系,加大了地方法人金融機構(gòu)對農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟的支持力度。而農(nóng)村信用合作社正是這類地方法人金融機構(gòu)的主要代表,其改制工作也開始加速。國家鼓勵在經(jīng)濟比較發(fā)達(dá)、城鄉(xiāng)一體化較高的地區(qū),將農(nóng)村信用社通過股份制改造組建成農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行。在中國現(xiàn)行的政治體制下,地方政府可以有效干預(yù)或者控制地方法人金融機構(gòu),不少地區(qū)金融市場在很大程度上都帶有地方政府塑造的痕跡,最終形成“地方法人金融機構(gòu)在相當(dāng)程度上從屬于地方政府”的局面。因此,農(nóng)村信用合作社也被深深地打上了地方政府的烙印。農(nóng)村信用社作為支持農(nóng)村金融服務(wù)的主力軍,對推動農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟發(fā)展具有十分突出的作用。地方政府推動農(nóng)村信用社改制的積極性,即根源于農(nóng)村信用社有望能夠帶動當(dāng)?shù)氐慕?jīng)濟增長。而在以經(jīng)濟績效為主的官員考核體制下,良好的經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)往往被認(rèn)為是獲得政治晉升的重要前提,經(jīng)濟分權(quán)和政治晉升構(gòu)成了地方政府發(fā)展經(jīng)濟的內(nèi)在動力。在追逐經(jīng)濟快速增長的目標(biāo)下,金融資源無疑成為了地方政府爭奪的主要對象。地方政府都有干預(yù)金融業(yè)的內(nèi)在沖動,而推動設(shè)立地方法人金融機構(gòu)則成為其最直接有效的做法。自2011年起,農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行以每年120多家的數(shù)量增加,在銀監(jiān)會的全力推動之下,各地組建農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行的步伐明顯提速。但為什么有的縣市已經(jīng)成功地將農(nóng)信社改制為農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行,而另一些縣市卻尚未完成?各縣市在改制農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行上,是否存在策略互動?在全國農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行還沒有進(jìn)行全面覆蓋之前,要研究和解決這些問題,有必要對我國農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行設(shè)立的原因進(jìn)行全面、綜合的定性和定量分析。為此,本文以安徽省農(nóng)信社改制為例,在第二章對國內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行綜述的基礎(chǔ)上,第三章對農(nóng)信社發(fā)展情況及安徽省農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行描述。第四章通過理論和現(xiàn)實分析提出農(nóng)信社的改制可能存在攀比效應(yīng)。第五章運用實證分析,檢驗安徽省農(nóng)村信用社的改制是否存在攀比效應(yīng),以幫助我們理解地方法人金融機構(gòu)設(shè)立的邏輯。第六章提出相關(guān)建議,為其他地區(qū)農(nóng)信社的改革工作和未來農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行的持續(xù)發(fā)展提供借鑒。本文的目的在于通過研究地方法人金融機構(gòu)在設(shè)立上存在的攀比效應(yīng)來合理規(guī)范地方政府競爭行為、促進(jìn)區(qū)域金融的進(jìn)一步發(fā)展、避免資源配置扭曲問題。本文的研究思路為:首先,在緒論中論述本文的研究背景與意義、方法與技術(shù)路線、相關(guān)理論界定和可能存在的創(chuàng)新與不足,并在此基礎(chǔ)上對現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行綜合述評、并提出本文的研究視角。其次,對農(nóng)信社發(fā)展改革歷程、安徽省農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行描述。再次,通過對理論和現(xiàn)實的分析來提出本文需要驗證的命題。然后,對計量經(jīng)濟模型進(jìn)行權(quán)重構(gòu)造,對安徽省農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行設(shè)立存在的攀比效應(yīng)進(jìn)行實證分析。最后,對規(guī)范地方政府行為以及農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行的發(fā)展提出相關(guān)建議。研究結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn):縣市社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平、政府財政自主度對農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行的成立具有顯著性影響。一般而言,經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平較高的地區(qū),越傾向于將農(nóng)信社組建為農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行。基于空間Probit模型的實證結(jié)果表明,在政績競爭體制的考慮下,周邊縣市農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行的成立會刺激本縣市農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行的成立,農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行的設(shè)立存在攀比效應(yīng),本文也通過穩(wěn)健性分析和反事實推斷證明了農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行在設(shè)立上存在攀比效應(yīng)。這些結(jié)論對于地方政府是否能夠合理地設(shè)立地方法人金融機構(gòu)、促進(jìn)當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟的可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's financial industry has made great achievements and entered an accelerated period of development. However, the problem of "financial exclusion" has always been a difficult problem in the development of China's financial industry. Slow progress and other factors lead to less availability of rural financial services, seriously hindering the development of the "three rural" economy, thus widening the gap between urban and rural areas. The construction of a demand-oriented rural financial organization system has strengthened the support of local legal person financial institutions to the rural economy. Rural credit cooperatives are the main representatives of such local legal person financial institutions, and their restructuring work has begun to accelerate. Credit cooperatives are formed into rural commercial banks through joint-stock reform. Under the current political system in China, local governments can effectively intervene in or control the local legal person financial institutions. Many regional financial markets bear traces of local government shaping to a great extent, and eventually form "local legal person financial institutions from a considerable extent." Rural credit cooperatives, as the main force to support rural financial services, play a very prominent role in promoting rural economic development. The enthusiasm of local governments to promote the reform of rural credit cooperatives is rooted in rural credit cooperatives. It is hoped that the local economic growth will be promoted. Under the official appraisal system based on economic performance, good economic performance is often regarded as an important prerequisite for political promotion. Economic decentralization and political promotion constitute the intrinsic motive force for local governments to develop their economy. Local governments have the intrinsic impulse to intervene in the financial industry, and promoting the establishment of local legal person financial institutions has become the most direct and effective way. Since 2011, rural commercial banks have increased by more than 120 each year. Under the full impetus of the CBRC, rural commercial banks have been set up everywhere. But why have some counties and cities successfully transformed rural credit cooperatives into rural commercial banks, while others have not yet been completed? Are there any strategic interactions among the counties and cities in restructuring rural commercial banks? Before the national rural commercial banks are fully covered, it is necessary to study and solve these problems. This paper takes the reform of Anhui Rural Credit Cooperatives as an example. Based on the review of the domestic and foreign literature in the second chapter, the third chapter describes the development of rural credit cooperatives and the current situation of rural commercial banks in Anhui Province. Chapter 5 uses empirical analysis to test whether there is a comparative effect in the reform of rural credit cooperatives in Anhui Province, so as to help us understand the logic of the establishment of local legal person financial institutions. Chapter 6 puts forward relevant suggestions for the reform of rural credit cooperatives in other areas and the future rural areas. The purpose of this paper is to study the comparative effect of the establishment of local corporate financial institutions to rationally regulate local government competition, promote the further development of regional finance, and avoid the distortion of resource allocation. Research background and significance, methods and technical routes, the definition of relevant theories and possible innovations and shortcomings, and on this basis, a comprehensive review of the existing literature, and put forward the perspective of this study. secondly, the development and reform of rural credit cooperatives, Anhui Province, the status of rural commercial banks are described. thirdly, through the theory and reality Then, the weights of econometric models are constructed, and the comparative effect of the establishment of rural commercial banks in Anhui Province is analyzed. Finally, some suggestions are put forward to standardize the behavior of local governments and the development of rural commercial banks. Generally speaking, the higher the level of economic development, the more inclined to form rural credit cooperatives into rural commercial banks. The empirical results based on the spatial Probit model show that, under the consideration of the performance competition system, the rural commercial banks in the surrounding counties and cities will be established. Stimulating the establishment of rural commercial banks in our county, the establishment of rural commercial banks has a comparative effect. This paper also proves that there is a comparative effect in the establishment of rural commercial banks through robust analysis and counterfactual inference. Sustainable development has important practical significance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F832.35
本文編號：2223254
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's financial industry has made great achievements and entered an accelerated period of development. However, the problem of "financial exclusion" has always been a difficult problem in the development of China's financial industry. Slow progress and other factors lead to less availability of rural financial services, seriously hindering the development of the "three rural" economy, thus widening the gap between urban and rural areas. The construction of a demand-oriented rural financial organization system has strengthened the support of local legal person financial institutions to the rural economy. Rural credit cooperatives are the main representatives of such local legal person financial institutions, and their restructuring work has begun to accelerate. Credit cooperatives are formed into rural commercial banks through joint-stock reform. Under the current political system in China, local governments can effectively intervene in or control the local legal person financial institutions. Many regional financial markets bear traces of local government shaping to a great extent, and eventually form "local legal person financial institutions from a considerable extent." Rural credit cooperatives, as the main force to support rural financial services, play a very prominent role in promoting rural economic development. The enthusiasm of local governments to promote the reform of rural credit cooperatives is rooted in rural credit cooperatives. It is hoped that the local economic growth will be promoted. Under the official appraisal system based on economic performance, good economic performance is often regarded as an important prerequisite for political promotion. Economic decentralization and political promotion constitute the intrinsic motive force for local governments to develop their economy. Local governments have the intrinsic impulse to intervene in the financial industry, and promoting the establishment of local legal person financial institutions has become the most direct and effective way. Since 2011, rural commercial banks have increased by more than 120 each year. Under the full impetus of the CBRC, rural commercial banks have been set up everywhere. But why have some counties and cities successfully transformed rural credit cooperatives into rural commercial banks, while others have not yet been completed? Are there any strategic interactions among the counties and cities in restructuring rural commercial banks? Before the national rural commercial banks are fully covered, it is necessary to study and solve these problems. This paper takes the reform of Anhui Rural Credit Cooperatives as an example. Based on the review of the domestic and foreign literature in the second chapter, the third chapter describes the development of rural credit cooperatives and the current situation of rural commercial banks in Anhui Province. Chapter 5 uses empirical analysis to test whether there is a comparative effect in the reform of rural credit cooperatives in Anhui Province, so as to help us understand the logic of the establishment of local legal person financial institutions. Chapter 6 puts forward relevant suggestions for the reform of rural credit cooperatives in other areas and the future rural areas. The purpose of this paper is to study the comparative effect of the establishment of local corporate financial institutions to rationally regulate local government competition, promote the further development of regional finance, and avoid the distortion of resource allocation. Research background and significance, methods and technical routes, the definition of relevant theories and possible innovations and shortcomings, and on this basis, a comprehensive review of the existing literature, and put forward the perspective of this study. secondly, the development and reform of rural credit cooperatives, Anhui Province, the status of rural commercial banks are described. thirdly, through the theory and reality Then, the weights of econometric models are constructed, and the comparative effect of the establishment of rural commercial banks in Anhui Province is analyzed. Finally, some suggestions are put forward to standardize the behavior of local governments and the development of rural commercial banks. Generally speaking, the higher the level of economic development, the more inclined to form rural credit cooperatives into rural commercial banks. The empirical results based on the spatial Probit model show that, under the consideration of the performance competition system, the rural commercial banks in the surrounding counties and cities will be established. Stimulating the establishment of rural commercial banks in our county, the establishment of rural commercial banks has a comparative effect. This paper also proves that there is a comparative effect in the establishment of rural commercial banks through robust analysis and counterfactual inference. Sustainable development has important practical significance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F832.35
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