【摘要】：我國(guó)快速的人口老齡化對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金的財(cái)務(wù)可持續(xù)性造成巨大的壓力已為學(xué)界所共識(shí)。在生育政策調(diào)整之前,一些研究認(rèn)為放開(kāi)生育限制、提升生育水平,能夠有效應(yīng)對(duì)人口老齡化。那么在生育政策調(diào)整之后,“全面二孩”政策正式落地的現(xiàn)實(shí)背景下,政策調(diào)整究竟能夠?qū)θ丝诶淆g化產(chǎn)生多大的影響,進(jìn)而能夠?qū)攫B(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金財(cái)務(wù)狀況產(chǎn)生多大的影響效應(yīng),這些需要科學(xué)的人口預(yù)測(cè)和基金收支預(yù)測(cè)為依據(jù)來(lái)回答。本文通過(guò)使用第五次人口普查、第六次人口普查數(shù)據(jù)、歷年中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒以及國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)與社會(huì)發(fā)展統(tǒng)計(jì)公報(bào)、人力資源和社會(huì)保障事業(yè)發(fā)展統(tǒng)計(jì)公報(bào)等既有數(shù)據(jù),并在對(duì)相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)做出調(diào)整的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用人口預(yù)測(cè)方法和精算建模方法對(duì)“全面二孩”政策調(diào)整影響城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金財(cái)務(wù)狀況的效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究。研究表明:第一,“全面二孩”政策實(shí)施可以有效緩解人口老齡化進(jìn)程,優(yōu)化人口結(jié)構(gòu),2016-2065年間政策調(diào)整生育率低、中和高方案下人口老齡化水平相比基準(zhǔn)方案的下降區(qū)間分別為0.04%-2.2%、0.05%-5.96%和0.06%-8.12%;第二,維持現(xiàn)行生育政策不變情況下,人口老齡化危機(jī)會(huì)對(duì)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金的可持續(xù)運(yùn)行造成嚴(yán)重挑戰(zhàn),到預(yù)測(cè)期末累計(jì)缺口達(dá)到51萬(wàn)億元;第三,“全面二孩”政策實(shí)施能夠改善社會(huì)統(tǒng)籌基金財(cái)務(wù)收支狀況,政策調(diào)整生育率低、中和高方案下基金收入相比基準(zhǔn)方案增長(zhǎng)區(qū)間分別為0.37%-8.47%、0.46%-22.96%和0.56%-32.67%,同時(shí)年度性缺口和累計(jì)缺口均有不同程度的減少;第四,生育水平變動(dòng)對(duì)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金收支的影響具有滯后性。此外,先前國(guó)內(nèi)雖然已有學(xué)者研究過(guò)調(diào)整生育政策對(duì)公共養(yǎng)老金的影響,但是研究大多發(fā)生在單獨(dú)政策尚未顯現(xiàn)、全面二孩政策“尚無(wú)時(shí)間表”的情境之下,所以在全面二孩政策落地之后,一些假設(shè)條件都已經(jīng)不符合現(xiàn)實(shí)背景的變化。故本文將“全面二孩”政策實(shí)施對(duì)我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金可持續(xù)性的結(jié)合起來(lái),構(gòu)建生育政策調(diào)整和基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金的聯(lián)系具有一定的創(chuàng)新性。
[Abstract]:The rapid aging of the population in China has caused tremendous pressure on the financial sustainability of the basic old-age insurance fund for urban enterprise workers. Before the fertility policy adjustment, some studies believe that liberalizing fertility restrictions and raising fertility level can effectively cope with the aging of the population. Well, after the adjustment of the fertility policy, under the realistic background of the "comprehensive two-child" policy falling to the ground, how will the policy adjustment have an impact on the aging population? Then it can affect the financial situation of the basic pension insurance fund, which needs scientific population forecast and fund income and expenditure forecast as the basis to answer. By using the data of the fifth census, the sixth census, the statistical yearbook of China over the years, the statistical bulletin on national economic and social development, and the statistical bulletin on the development of human resources and social security, On the basis of adjusting the relevant data, this paper makes an empirical study on the effect of the adjustment of "all-around two-child" policy on the financial status of the basic pension insurance fund of urban enterprises by using population forecasting method and actuarial modeling method. The results show that: first, the implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy can effectively alleviate the aging process of the population and optimize the population structure. In 2016-2065, the policy adjusts the fertility rate to a low level. The decline in population ageing levels compared to the benchmark programme under the medium and high schemes is 0.04-2.2 per cent and 0.05-5.96 per cent and 0.06-8.12 respectively; second, while the current fertility policy remains unchanged, The aging population crisis will pose a serious challenge to the sustainable operation of the basic old-age insurance fund for workers and staff, and the cumulative gap will reach 51 trillion yuan by the end of the forecast period. Third, The implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy can improve the financial income and expenditure of the social fund as a whole, and the policy adjustment has a low fertility rate. The growth range of fund income is 0.37-8.470.46-22.96% and 0.56-32.67, respectively. At the same time, the annual gap and accumulative gap are all reduced in varying degrees; fourth, the influence of fertility level change on the income and expenditure of basic pension insurance fund is lagging behind. In addition, although previous domestic scholars have studied the impact of the adjustment of birth policy on public pensions, most of the studies have taken place in situations where separate policies have not yet emerged and the overall two-child policy has "no timetable". Therefore, after the two-child policy, some assumptions have not been in line with the real background changes. Therefore, this paper combines the implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy with the sustainability of the basic pension insurance fund for urban workers in China, and constructs the relationship between the adjustment of the fertility policy and the basic pension insurance fund.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F842.67

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