【摘要】：眾所周知,中國(guó)社會(huì)是一種復(fù)雜的關(guān)系型社會(huì)。在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)體制日趨完善,全球化經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)一步凸顯的今天,各類的人際關(guān)系、企業(yè)關(guān)系、聯(lián)盟關(guān)系甚至國(guó)家關(guān)系都影響著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定性。如何研究這些關(guān)系?視角固然有很多,林語堂的筆下對(duì)關(guān)系進(jìn)行了細(xì)膩的描繪,黃國(guó)光作為心理學(xué)家則從人情世故和關(guān)系網(wǎng)加以刻畫,而對(duì)數(shù)字嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)膰?guó)外社會(huì)學(xué)學(xué)者經(jīng)過七十多年對(duì)人類社會(huì)發(fā)展歷史的研究選擇從社會(huì)結(jié)構(gòu)入手,通過定量研究揭示社會(huì)學(xué)科現(xiàn)象。復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論意義在于通過對(duì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中統(tǒng)計(jì)特征量化分析,從而為相關(guān)中層實(shí)證命題檢驗(yàn)和網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論的構(gòu)建提供定量解決方案,甚至可以建立“宏觀和微觀”之間的橋梁。而另一方面,隨著全球自然災(zāi)害和突發(fā)事件的增多、各國(guó)和地區(qū)不斷爆發(fā)的金融危機(jī),供需市場(chǎng)難以把握的交易信息加之供應(yīng)鏈結(jié)構(gòu)復(fù)雜化,使得供應(yīng)鏈穩(wěn)定性變得更加脆弱。中國(guó)作為后起的大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體,雖然國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率與同體量國(guó)家相比仍處于較高水平,但市場(chǎng)成熟度、各產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀以及社會(huì)信用環(huán)境建設(shè)等各方面相比發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家仍有較大差距。因此針對(duì)我國(guó)各產(chǎn)業(yè)供應(yīng)鏈網(wǎng)絡(luò)的結(jié)構(gòu)和內(nèi)部研究也將相較于以前的西方復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論有所差異;作為供應(yīng)鏈網(wǎng)絡(luò)成員,企業(yè)在面臨上級(jí)違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳染以及網(wǎng)絡(luò)內(nèi)有關(guān)系往來的企業(yè)違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)交互傳染時(shí),應(yīng)對(duì)措施也將變得更為復(fù)雜。因此,對(duì)供應(yīng)鏈網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)和統(tǒng)計(jì)特征全面了解,構(gòu)建相關(guān)違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳染模型,在宏觀上能夠彌補(bǔ)一些針對(duì)供應(yīng)鏈網(wǎng)絡(luò)違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳染機(jī)制研究的缺陷,微觀上有助于供應(yīng)鏈企業(yè)制定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制策略。本文在現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)研究的基礎(chǔ)上,為定量分析核心制造商違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)爆發(fā)對(duì)分銷商網(wǎng)絡(luò)的傳染影響,在謠言傳播模型的基礎(chǔ)上,引入違約相關(guān)因素,構(gòu)建二級(jí)供應(yīng)鏈網(wǎng)絡(luò)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳染模型,對(duì)分銷商網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)中各成員企業(yè)的關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系強(qiáng)度度造成的違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)交互傳染問題進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)研究。本文首先對(duì)復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)特性進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)分析,并結(jié)合供應(yīng)鏈企業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系類型,采用層次分析法對(duì)供應(yīng)鏈網(wǎng)絡(luò)企業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系權(quán)重進(jìn)行評(píng)估,并將這些關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系作為網(wǎng)絡(luò)節(jié)點(diǎn)度的定量研究因素。在此基礎(chǔ)上,利用SHKR謠言傳播模型,以制造商-分銷商二級(jí)供應(yīng)鏈網(wǎng)絡(luò)為研究對(duì)象,構(gòu)建制造商-分銷商二級(jí)供應(yīng)鏈違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳染模型,發(fā)現(xiàn)分銷商網(wǎng)絡(luò)平均度越大,節(jié)點(diǎn)間發(fā)生連接的概率越高,核心制造商違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)爆發(fā)的影響就越大,蔓延時(shí)間也越長(zhǎng),并向下級(jí)呈正向跳躍。接著由供應(yīng)鏈網(wǎng)絡(luò)整體轉(zhuǎn)向局部,將研究范圍縮小到供應(yīng)鏈企業(yè)違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)觀點(diǎn)變化及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制策略研究,通過模型構(gòu)建和仿真分析,為了有效降低國(guó)內(nèi)供應(yīng)鏈違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損害,供應(yīng)鏈節(jié)點(diǎn)企業(yè)必須加強(qiáng)企業(yè)初始風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別、評(píng)估和預(yù)警能力,并慎重制定供應(yīng)鏈合作伙伴選擇方案。
[Abstract]:As we all know, Chinese society is a complicated relation society. Nowadays, when the national economic system is becoming more and more perfect and the global economy is becoming more prominent, the stability of the global economy is affected by all kinds of interpersonal relations, enterprise relations, alliance relations and even national relations. How do you study these relationships? Of course, there are a lot of perspectives. Lin Yutang's works depict the relationship, and Huang Guoguang, as a psychologist, portrays it from the perspective of the world and the network of relationships. After more than 70 years' research on the history of human social development, foreign sociologists with rigorous figures begin with the social structure and reveal the phenomenon of social discipline through quantitative research. The significance of the complex network theory lies in the quantitative analysis of the statistical characteristics in the network, so as to provide a quantitative solution for the relevant middle-level empirical proposition test and the construction of the network theory, and even to build a bridge between "macro and micro". On the other hand, with the increase of natural disasters and emergencies in the world, the financial crisis broke out in various countries and regions, the difficult transaction information of supply and demand market and the complexity of supply chain structure make the stability of supply chain more fragile. China, as a newly rising large economy, although the growth rate of its national economy is still at a relatively high level compared with that of other countries, but the market maturity is still relatively high. Compared with the developed countries, there is still a big gap in the development of industries and the construction of social credit environment. As a member of supply chain network, the structure and internal research of supply chain network in China will be different from that of western complex network theory. When enterprises are faced with the contagion of superior default risk and those connected with each other in the network, the countermeasures will become more complicated. Therefore, through a comprehensive understanding of the supply chain network structure and statistical characteristics, the establishment of a related default risk contagion model can make up for some defects in the research of supply chain network default risk contagion mechanism. Microscopically, it helps supply chain enterprises to formulate risk control strategies. In this paper, based on the existing literature, in order to quantitatively analyze the impact of the outbreak of default risk of core manufacturers on the network of distributors, based on the rumor dissemination model, the related factors of default are introduced. The risk contagion model of secondary supply chain network is constructed, and the interactive contagion of default risk caused by the intensity of association relationship of each member enterprise in the network structure of distributor is studied systematically. In this paper, the characteristics of complex network structure are analyzed in detail, and the relationship weight of supply chain network enterprises is evaluated by AHP. These correlations are used as quantitative research factors of network node degree. On this basis, using the SHKR rumor propagation model, taking the manufacturer-distributor secondary supply chain network as the research object, constructs the manufacturer-distributor secondary supply chain default risk contagion model, and finds that the average degree of the distributor network is larger. The higher the probability of connection between nodes, the greater the impact of default risk outbreak of the core manufacturer, the longer the spreading time, and the higher the jump to the lower level. Then by the supply chain network as a whole, the research scope is reduced to the supply chain enterprise default risk perspective change and risk control strategy research, through the model construction and simulation analysis, in order to effectively reduce the domestic supply chain default risk damage. Supply chain node enterprises must strengthen their initial risk identification, assessment and early warning capabilities, and carefully formulate supply chain partner selection schemes.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F274

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