【摘要】：作為電氣化鐵路的核心環(huán)節(jié),接觸網(wǎng)承擔(dān)著向電力機(jī)車提供持續(xù)電能的重要任務(wù),是機(jī)車唯一的直接動(dòng)力來源,其可靠性不僅影響到電力牽引優(yōu)越性的充分發(fā)揮,而且直接關(guān)系到列車運(yùn)行的穩(wěn)定與安全。對(duì)接觸網(wǎng)的可靠性進(jìn)行研究與分析評(píng)估對(duì)于保障列車安全運(yùn)行、提高電氣化鐵路運(yùn)行質(zhì)量和經(jīng)濟(jì)效益等都具有重要意義。本文根據(jù)實(shí)際調(diào)研得到的接觸網(wǎng)故障資料,采用貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)方法對(duì)接觸網(wǎng)進(jìn)行了可靠性分析與評(píng)估。首先,通過對(duì)于故障資料的統(tǒng)計(jì)與分析,得到了接觸網(wǎng)主要零部件的可靠性指標(biāo)和接觸網(wǎng)的故障樹模型。然后在此基礎(chǔ)上建立了接觸網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,并采用精確推理算法對(duì)系統(tǒng)可靠性進(jìn)行了推理分析,計(jì)算得到了在役接觸網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的失效概率,診斷得到了影響接觸網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)可靠性的薄弱環(huán)節(jié),并計(jì)算得到了接觸網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的可靠性指標(biāo)。其次利用貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)方法對(duì)于前面系統(tǒng)分析中得到的處于薄弱環(huán)節(jié)的關(guān)鍵零部件進(jìn)行了可靠性分析評(píng)估,得到了這些零部件的故障概率及影響其可靠性的主要故障因素。同時(shí)對(duì)上述零部件的故障情況按月份進(jìn)行了統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,研究了故障的月份(季節(jié))特點(diǎn)。接著根據(jù)以上分析結(jié)果和調(diào)研見聞,對(duì)影響零部件可靠性的主要故障因素及其防治進(jìn)行了闡述分析。根據(jù)之前的研究,給出了提高接觸網(wǎng)可靠性的思路與建議。最后研究了接觸網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的可靠性分配。在考慮了影響系統(tǒng)可靠性分配的多種因素下,采用模糊綜合評(píng)判法對(duì)接觸網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行了的可靠性分配;利用貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)反向推理中條件失效概率能夠反映零部件對(duì)系統(tǒng)可靠性影響的特點(diǎn),將貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)方法應(yīng)用到可靠性分配中,以接觸懸掛子系統(tǒng)為例,實(shí)現(xiàn)了其零部件的可靠性分配。
[Abstract]:As the core link of electrified railway, the catenary undertakes the important task of providing continuous electric energy to the electric locomotive, and is the only direct power source of the locomotive. Its reliability not only affects the full play of the superiority of electric traction. And it is directly related to the stability and safety of train operation. It is of great significance to study and evaluate the reliability of catenary for ensuring the safe operation of trains, improving the quality of electrified railway operation and economic benefits. In this paper, the reliability of catenary is analyzed and evaluated by using Bayesian network method according to the fault data of catenary. Firstly, the reliability index of the main parts of catenary and the fault tree model of the catenary are obtained through the statistics and analysis of the fault data. Then, the Bayesian network model of the catenary system is established, and the reliability of the system is analyzed by using the exact reasoning algorithm, and the failure probability of the in-service catenary system is calculated. The weak links affecting the reliability of the catenary system are obtained and the reliability index of the catenary system is calculated. Secondly, the Bayesian network method is used to evaluate the reliability of the key parts which are in the weak link in the previous system analysis, and the failure probability of these parts and the main fault factors affecting their reliability are obtained. At the same time, the fault situation of the above parts is analyzed by month, and the characteristics of fault month (season) are studied. Then, according to the above analysis results and investigation, the main fault factors affecting the reliability of parts and their prevention and treatment are analyzed. According to the previous research, the ideas and suggestions for improving the reliability of catenary are given. Finally, the reliability distribution of catenary system is studied. Under the consideration of many factors affecting the reliability distribution of the system, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to assign the reliability of the catenary system. The conditional failure probability in Bayesian network reverse reasoning can reflect the influence of components on the reliability of the system. The Bayesian network method is applied to the reliability distribution, and the contact suspension subsystem is taken as an example. The reliability distribution of its parts is realized.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：U225

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本文編號(hào)：2164253