【摘要】：干旱是一個全球性的問題,具有持續(xù)時間長、發(fā)生頻率高、分布地域廣等特點。我國也是一個干旱重災(zāi)國,隨著國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,干旱缺水問題日益凸顯,不僅對農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)造成巨大損失,也對人們生活帶來巨大影響,嚴(yán)重影響著國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展和社會的安定。在與農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害的長期斗爭實踐中,人們逐漸認(rèn)識到旱災(zāi)是客觀存在不可避免的,只有通過科學(xué)有效的風(fēng)險管理,盡力降低或分散干旱風(fēng)險,才能將干旱損失降低到最低水平。因此,有必要對干旱進(jìn)行科學(xué)的分析和預(yù)測,為農(nóng)業(yè)防災(zāi)減災(zāi)提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。湖南是我國的產(chǎn)糧大省,也是我國重要的糧棉油生產(chǎn)基地,但同時,湖南也是我國南方各省中干旱最為嚴(yán)重的省份之一。本文主要運(yùn)用管理學(xué)、計量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、統(tǒng)計學(xué)及災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理等理論知識,采用文獻(xiàn)分析法、實證分析法、定性與定量分析相結(jié)合的方法,對湖南省農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了較為深入的研究。首先,借鑒已有研究成果,對干旱災(zāi)害與農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害等相關(guān)概念進(jìn)行了界定;接著,探析了湖南干旱災(zāi)害的時空分布、社會經(jīng)濟(jì)影響以及形成機(jī)理。湖南干旱災(zāi)害比較嚴(yán)重主要原因在于湖南特殊的氣候和地理條件,湖南地處亞熱帶季風(fēng)濕潤氣候區(qū),季風(fēng)進(jìn)退的時間和強(qiáng)度各年不一,地形上山川交錯、地表復(fù)雜,因此,致使湖南各地區(qū)降水時空分布不均,湖南農(nóng)業(yè)在享有比較豐沛的雨水量的同時也飽受季節(jié)性干旱災(zāi)害之苦;然后,從湖南農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害的內(nèi)在與外在生成機(jī)制出發(fā),進(jìn)一步剖析其影響因素,并將湖南農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害的影響因素概括為自然因素、人類活動和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展因素三大類。在統(tǒng)計分析1978——2014年36年間湖南農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)受災(zāi)與成災(zāi)面積等相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上,探尋了湖南農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害的時間分布規(guī)律,并運(yùn)用灰色系統(tǒng)理論建模方法,采用農(nóng)作物受災(zāi)異常指數(shù)和成災(zāi)異常指數(shù)作為評價農(nóng)業(yè)旱情的指標(biāo),借助MATLAB軟件,建立了旱災(zāi)重災(zāi)年份的灰色災(zāi)變GM(1,1)預(yù)測模型,依據(jù)模型對未來15年湖南省農(nóng)業(yè)干旱重災(zāi)年份進(jìn)行了預(yù)測;最后,結(jié)合上述分析結(jié)果,從干旱災(zāi)害影響因素出發(fā),根據(jù)我省農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害實際情況,提出主要從提高政府組織協(xié)調(diào)能力、提高監(jiān)測預(yù)警能力、加強(qiáng)農(nóng)田水利工程建設(shè)、優(yōu)化用水結(jié)構(gòu)、調(diào)整農(nóng)作物種植結(jié)構(gòu)、加強(qiáng)節(jié)水宣傳教育等方面提出了湖南農(nóng)業(yè)干旱災(zāi)害防災(zāi)減災(zāi)的對策建議。以期為我省科學(xué)有效地防旱抗旱和提高抗旱應(yīng)急管理能力、減少災(zāi)害損失、穩(wěn)定糧食產(chǎn)量、保障農(nóng)民收入提供較為科學(xué)的行之有效的決策依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Drought is a global problem with long duration, high frequency and wide distribution. China is also a drought-stricken country. With the rapid development of the national economy, the problem of drought and water shortage is becoming increasingly prominent, which not only causes huge losses to agricultural production, but also has a huge impact on people's lives. Seriously affect the development of the national economy and social stability. In the long struggle against agricultural drought, people have come to realize that drought is inevitable and only through scientific and effective risk management to reduce or disperse drought risk. To minimize drought losses. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out scientific analysis and prediction of drought to provide scientific basis for agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation. Hunan is a big grain producing province and an important production base of grain, cotton and oil in China. However, Hunan is also one of the most arid provinces in the southern provinces of China. This paper mainly uses the theories of management, econometrics, statistics and disaster risk management, and adopts the methods of literature analysis, empirical analysis, qualitative and quantitative analysis. The risk of agricultural drought disaster in Hunan Province is studied deeply. Firstly, the concepts of drought disaster and agricultural drought disaster are defined based on the existing research results, and then, the spatio-temporal distribution, social and economic impact and formation mechanism of drought disaster in Hunan are analyzed. The main reason for the severe drought disasters in Hunan lies in the special climatic and geographical conditions of Hunan. Hunan is located in the subtropical monsoon humid climate area. The time and intensity of the monsoon advance and retreat vary from year to year, the terrain is crisscrossed by mountains and rivers, and the surface is complex, so, As a result of the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation in various regions of Hunan, Hunan agriculture suffers from seasonal drought disasters while enjoying abundant rainfall; then, from the internal and external generation mechanism of agricultural drought disasters in Hunan, The influencing factors of agricultural drought disaster in Hunan are summarized into three categories: natural factors, human activities and economic development factors. Based on the statistical analysis of the related data of agricultural drought disaster and disaster area in Hunan Province from 1978 to 2014, the temporal distribution of agricultural drought disaster in Hunan Province is explored, and the grey system theory is used to model the drought disaster in Hunan Province. With the help of MATLAB software, the grey disaster GM (1 / 1) prediction model of severe drought year is established by using crop disaster anomaly index and disaster formation anomaly index as indicators to evaluate agricultural drought. Based on the model, the severe agricultural drought years in Hunan Province in the next 15 years are predicted. Finally, based on the above analysis results, according to the actual situation of agricultural drought disasters in Hunan Province, the factors affecting drought disasters are analyzed. It is put forward that improving the ability of government organization and coordination, improving the ability of monitoring and early warning, strengthening the construction of irrigation and water conservancy engineering, optimizing the structure of water use, adjusting the structure of crop planting, The countermeasures and suggestions for preventing and reducing agricultural drought disaster in Hunan Province are put forward in the aspects of water saving propaganda and education. It is expected to provide a scientific and effective decision basis for preventing drought and drought effectively and improving the ability of drought and emergency management, reducing disaster losses, stabilizing grain production, and ensuring farmers' income in our province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：D632.5;F327

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