【摘要】：20世紀(jì)90年代以后,全國(guó)生育水平持續(xù)下降,老年人口比重繼續(xù)保持穩(wěn)步上升,2000年中國(guó)老年人口比重達(dá)到6.96%,中國(guó)進(jìn)入老齡化社會(huì)。2014年,我國(guó)60歲及以上的老年人口數(shù)量達(dá)2.12億人,占全國(guó)總?cè)丝诒戎氐?5.5%,中國(guó)已成為世界上老年人口總量最多的國(guó)家。人作為社會(huì)生產(chǎn)和社會(huì)需求的最終主體,人口結(jié)構(gòu)的變化,必然導(dǎo)致需求結(jié)構(gòu)變化,進(jìn)而影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)是衡量一國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)之一,合理的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整能夠促進(jìn)一國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,但若產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整與經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)整不協(xié)調(diào),則會(huì)嚴(yán)重阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的步伐。基于上述背景,本文擬研究人口老齡化對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的影響,為產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整提供參考建議。本文的研究主要包括五個(gè)部分:一是通過(guò)統(tǒng)計(jì)描述對(duì)我國(guó)人口老齡化及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行詳細(xì)分析;二是基于柯布-道格拉斯(CD)非齊次需求效應(yīng)函數(shù)推導(dǎo)證明人口老齡化對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的影響途徑,探討人口老齡化影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的內(nèi)在機(jī)制;三是運(yùn)用灰關(guān)聯(lián)分析方法研究人口老齡化與三次產(chǎn)業(yè)及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)測(cè)度指標(biāo)間的關(guān)聯(lián)度;四是運(yùn)用SYS-GMM估計(jì)動(dòng)態(tài)分析我國(guó)人口老齡化對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的具體影響;五是總結(jié)前文研究成果,并給出相應(yīng)的政策建議。在上述研究的基礎(chǔ)上本文得出以下主要結(jié)論:第一,我國(guó)人口老齡化雖然起步晚但發(fā)展迅速,且區(qū)域間存在較大差異,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)最早進(jìn)入人口老齡化。第二,人口老齡化與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整間存在必然聯(lián)系,且人口老齡化與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)氋級(jí)化間的關(guān)聯(lián)度要高于人口老齡化與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化間的關(guān)聯(lián)度。第三,通過(guò)對(duì)我國(guó)近20年老齡化與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的研究發(fā)現(xiàn):人口老齡化不僅能夠促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高級(jí)化,對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化也存在著積極影響,但區(qū)域間存在一定差異。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, the national fertility level has continued to decline, and the proportion of the elderly population has continued to rise steadily. In 2000, the proportion of China's elderly population reached 6.96, and China entered an aging society. In 2014, The number of old people aged 60 and above in China reaches 212 million, accounting for 15.5percent of the total population in China. China has become the country with the largest number of elderly people in the world. As the final subject of social production and social demand, the change of population structure will inevitably lead to the change of demand structure, and then affect the adjustment of industrial structure. Industrial structure is one of the standards to measure the economic development of a country. Reasonable industrial structure adjustment can promote the economic development of a country, but if the adjustment of industrial structure and economic adjustment is not coordinated, it will seriously hinder the pace of economic development. Based on the above background, this paper intends to study the effect of population aging on industrial structure adjustment, and provide some suggestions for industrial structure adjustment. The research of this paper mainly includes five parts: first, the current situation of aging population and industrial structure in China is analyzed in detail through statistical description; Secondly, based on the derivation of the inhomogeneous demand effect function of Cobb-Douglas (CD), the influence of population aging on the adjustment of industrial structure is proved, and the internal mechanism of the effect of population aging on industrial structure is discussed. The third is to use the grey correlation analysis method to study the correlation degree between the aging of population and the measurement index of three industries and industrial structure, the fourth is to use SYS-GMM estimation to dynamically analyze the specific impact of the aging population on the adjustment of industrial structure in China. The fifth is to summarize the previous research results and give corresponding policy recommendations. On the basis of the above research, this paper draws the following main conclusions: first, although the population aging in China started late, it has developed rapidly, and there are great differences between regions, and the economically developed regions are the first to enter the aging population. Secondly, there is an inevitable relationship between population aging and industrial structure adjustment, and the correlation degree between population aging and industrial structure is higher than that between population aging and industrial structure rationalization. Thirdly, through the research on the aging and industrial structure of China in the past 20 years, it is found that the aging of the population can not only promote the upgrading of industrial structure, but also have a positive impact on the rationalization of industrial structure, but there are some differences between regions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：C924.24;F121.3

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