本文選題：居民實(shí)際最終消費(fèi) + 實(shí)物社會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)移�。� 參考：《天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的三駕馬車中,居民消費(fèi)需求占著舉足輕重的作用,研究居民消費(fèi)需求意義深遠(yuǎn)。然而值得注意的是:改革開放以來(lái)拉動(dòng)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長(zhǎng)的主要是投資和凈出口,居民消費(fèi)需求嚴(yán)重不足。此外,我國(guó)現(xiàn)行的核算體系,未給出實(shí)際最終消費(fèi)的相關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì),這使得居民消費(fèi)不具有國(guó)際可比性。為了解決上述問(wèn)題,文章首先測(cè)算出我國(guó)居民實(shí)際最終消費(fèi)�；趯�(shí)際最終消費(fèi)的定義,文章從財(cái)政支出中分離出相應(yīng)的實(shí)物社會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)移,從而得到居民實(shí)際最終消費(fèi),并且分析其變化趨勢(shì)和結(jié)構(gòu)。得出結(jié)論:即使在加入實(shí)物社會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)移后我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)水平仍舊低于發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家美國(guó)、韓國(guó),以及發(fā)展中國(guó)家印度;在加入政府因素后,我國(guó)的恩格爾系數(shù)已經(jīng)低于30%,達(dá)到比較富裕的階段。接著深入探討實(shí)物社會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)移與居民消費(fèi)之間的關(guān)系。文章從兩個(gè)角度進(jìn)行分析:一是從全國(guó)的角度,利用2003-2014年的城鄉(xiāng)實(shí)物社會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)移與消費(fèi)的數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用線性回歸模型發(fā)現(xiàn)兩者之間的關(guān)系。得出結(jié)論:在總量方面,實(shí)物社會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)移對(duì)城鄉(xiāng)居民影響效果不同,對(duì)前者的效應(yīng)不明顯,對(duì)后者存在擠入效應(yīng);在結(jié)構(gòu)方面,教育、文化和社會(huì)保護(hù)支出與農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)存在擠入效應(yīng),而醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生支出與農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)存在擠出效應(yīng)。對(duì)于城鎮(zhèn)居民,教育和醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生支出與居民消費(fèi)存在擠出效應(yīng)。二是利用我國(guó)31個(gè)省份2007-2014年的面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行空間計(jì)量分析,得出我國(guó)城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)存在明顯的空間正相關(guān),存在空間滯后效應(yīng)和空間誤差效應(yīng)。最后,基于文章的實(shí)證結(jié)果,從提升居民人均可支配收入、優(yōu)化財(cái)政支出結(jié)構(gòu)、完善相應(yīng)公共服務(wù)以及注重區(qū)域協(xié)同發(fā)展等方面努力,力求達(dá)到促進(jìn)居民消費(fèi)的目的。
[Abstract]:In the troika of economic growth, the consumption demand of residents plays an important role. However, it is worth noting that since the reform and opening up, the main driving factors for China's rapid economic growth are investment and net exports, and the consumption demand of residents is seriously insufficient. In addition, the current accounting system of our country does not give the relevant statistics of the actual final consumption, which makes the resident consumption not comparable internationally. In order to solve the above problems, the article first measured the actual final consumption of Chinese residents. Based on the definition of actual final consumption, this paper separates the corresponding real social transfer from the financial expenditure, and then obtains the real final consumption of residents, and analyzes its changing trend and structure. The conclusion is that the consumption level of Chinese residents is still lower than that of the developed countries, the United States, South Korea, and the developing country India, even after joining the physical social transfer. The Engel coefficient of our country has been lower than 30 percent, reaching a relatively rich stage. Then the relationship between the real social transfer and the residents' consumption is discussed in depth. This paper analyzes from two angles: first, from the point of view of the whole country, using the data of urban and rural real social transfer and consumption from 2003 to 2014, using the linear regression model to find the relationship between the two. Conclusion: in terms of total amount, the effect of physical social transfer on urban and rural residents is different, the effect on the former is not obvious, and there is crowding effect on the latter. Cultural and social protection expenditure and rural residents' consumption had crowding in effect, while medical and health expenditure had crowding-out effect on rural residents' consumption. For urban residents, there is an crowding out effect between expenditure on education and health care and residents' consumption. Secondly, the panel data from 31 provinces of China from 2007 to 2014 are used to carry out spatial econometric analysis, and it is concluded that there is a significant spatial positive correlation, spatial lag effect and spatial error effect in the consumption of urban and rural residents in China. Finally, based on the empirical results of the paper, the author tries to promote the residents' consumption by improving the per capita disposable income, optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditure, perfecting the corresponding public services and paying attention to the coordinated development of the region.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F126.1;F124

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前4條

1 趙春艷;由實(shí)物社會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)移引發(fā)的思考[J];統(tǒng)計(jì)與決策;2000年02期

2 趙春艷;由實(shí)物社會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)移引發(fā)的思考[J];江蘇統(tǒng)計(jì);2000年02期

3 高敏雪;;從初次分配 再分配到“第三次分配”[J];中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì);2006年03期

4 許滌龍,任英華;基于國(guó)際接軌的宏觀消費(fèi)核算[J];消費(fèi)經(jīng)濟(jì);2002年06期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 陳金靈;我國(guó)居民實(shí)際最終消費(fèi)的測(cè)算及對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響[D];天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2016年

，

本文編號(hào)：2096960