本文選題：冬小麥 + 農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源　； 參考：《南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：隨著變暖為主要特征的全球氣候變化,全世界農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的脆弱性明顯增加,對(duì)世界糧食安全構(gòu)成了危害。中國(guó)是世界第一人口大國(guó),糧食安全直接影響經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展,所以,加強(qiáng)氣候資源中的農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源變化對(duì)糧食安全的影響研究是保障經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)建康穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的重要措施之一。江蘇是中國(guó)糧食主要產(chǎn)區(qū)之一,糧食總產(chǎn)量穩(wěn)居全國(guó)第五位,江蘇冬小麥產(chǎn)量常年占全國(guó)的7%左右。因此,研究農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源及其變化對(duì)江蘇冬小麥生長(zhǎng)發(fā)育的影響,采取積極應(yīng)對(duì)措施,保障江蘇冬小麥生產(chǎn)穩(wěn)定對(duì)保障全國(guó)糧食安全具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。據(jù)此,以江蘇省氣象系統(tǒng)1980-2015年冬小麥生產(chǎn)物候觀測(cè)資料和1960-2015年氣象觀測(cè)資料為基礎(chǔ),結(jié)合農(nóng)業(yè)部門的生產(chǎn)資料和試驗(yàn)研究資料,利用氣候?qū)W、農(nóng)業(yè)氣象學(xué)、作物栽培學(xué)、數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)、數(shù)值模擬等方法,對(duì)江蘇農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源變化,對(duì)冬小麥的生育期、產(chǎn)量構(gòu)成要素和單產(chǎn)的影響進(jìn)行評(píng)估,為農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源變化情景下科學(xué)種植冬小麥提供依據(jù)。江蘇冬小麥生長(zhǎng)發(fā)育期間的關(guān)鍵氣象因子(光溫水)隨著農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源變化發(fā)生了明顯改變,不同生育階段的變化程度及其對(duì)冬小麥生長(zhǎng)發(fā)育的影響也是不一樣的,具體研究結(jié)果如下:(1 )全生育期累計(jì)日照時(shí)數(shù)變化量占常年氣候平均值的比例,蘇北-2.13%·(10a)-1,蘇中-0.71%·(10a)—1,蘇南-1.27%·(10a)-1,蘇中日照時(shí)數(shù)相對(duì)穩(wěn)定,蘇北和蘇南明顯減少,尤其蘇南日照時(shí)數(shù)減少更有利于田間漬害加重發(fā)生。全省全生育期氣溫≥0℃活動(dòng)積溫都在增加,增加量占常年氣候平均值的比例,蘇北2.26%·(10a)-1,蘇中2.37%·(10a)-1,2.47%·(103)-1,說(shuō)明增溫速度由北向南遞增。分生育期氣溫≤0℃負(fù)積溫的氣候傾向率除蘇中和蘇北的起身期為負(fù)值(僅-0.03 ～ -0.01℃···(10a)-1)外均為正值,蘇北約是蘇中和蘇南的2和4倍,越冬期是其它生育期的2倍以上,即全省全生育期負(fù)積溫,尤其越冬期負(fù)積溫有快速減少的趨勢(shì),使得江蘇冬小麥越冬期變得越來(lái)越不明顯。降水量呈現(xiàn)高于或低于400mm的階段性變化特征,全生育期小雨日數(shù)占整個(gè)降水日數(shù)的比例全省平均80.5%,降水以小雨為主,有利于土壤保墑,利用充分運(yùn)用降水資源,減少?gòu)搅?緩解小麥生長(zhǎng)期間的旱情。江蘇冬小麥全生育期光溫生產(chǎn)潛力的改變量占正常年景光溫生產(chǎn)潛力的百分比,除蘇北中部到蘇中北部有一個(gè)-3%·( 1 0a)-1且—5%·(10a)—1的區(qū)域(屬于持平偏減),其它區(qū)域均為±3%·(10a)-1之間(屬于持平略增或略減)區(qū)域,且各生育的百分比的絕對(duì)值均小于5%·(10a)-1,絕大部分生育階段在3%·(10a)-1以內(nèi)。即,農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源變化并沒(méi)有引起江蘇冬小麥生產(chǎn)潛力明顯變化。營(yíng)養(yǎng)生長(zhǎng)期光溫生產(chǎn)潛力以減少為主,生殖生長(zhǎng)期光溫生產(chǎn)潛力以增加為主,這種變化趨勢(shì)對(duì)保障足穗是不利的,但對(duì)實(shí)現(xiàn)大穗是有利的,即利于提高品質(zhì)。(2)冬小麥生育期隨著生育進(jìn)程從出苗向成熟期推進(jìn),其出現(xiàn)時(shí)間越來(lái)越穩(wěn)定,統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)上一般將統(tǒng)計(jì)對(duì)象穩(wěn)定在95%以上設(shè)定為穩(wěn)定,據(jù)此,計(jì)算得出,起身開始生育期出現(xiàn)時(shí)間趨于穩(wěn)定,隨農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源變化變幅很小。因此,通過(guò)調(diào)節(jié)生育期來(lái)調(diào)整生育期長(zhǎng)度的關(guān)鍵期階段在拔節(jié)前。農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源變化對(duì)穗數(shù)的影響,不同生育期的影響程度不同,全生育期改變量以增加為主,約占正常氣候年景值的1.98%·(10a)-1。農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源變化對(duì)粒數(shù)的影響,不同生育期呈現(xiàn)“增-減”交替出現(xiàn)。全生育期的改變量以減少為主,約占正常氣候年景的-1.29%·(10a)-1。灌漿漸增期占整合灌漿期的23.4%,灌漿快增期占整合灌漿期的63.6%,灌漿緩增期整合灌漿期的13.0%。即,提高灌漿質(zhì)量的關(guān)鍵期是灌漿快增期。農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源變化引起光溫水的逐時(shí)要素變化對(duì)不同灌漿期(漸增期、快增期、緩增期)的影響程度差異明顯,氣象要素影響,溫度為1.36g·d-1·(10a)—1,降水為-1.35g·d-1·(10a)-1,日照時(shí)數(shù)為0.07 g·d-1·(10a)-1;光溫水綜合影響為 0.08g·d-1·(10a)-1,其中,漸增期為 0.02 g·d-1·(10a)-1,快增期為-0.04g·d-1·(10a)-1,緩增期為g·d-1·(10a)-1。農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源變化對(duì)江蘇冬小麥單產(chǎn)的影響為-94.069 ～18.942Kg·hm-2·(10a)-1,平均為-5.790 Kg·hm-2·(10a)-1。其中,蘇北為-20.229～18.942Kg·him-2·(10a)-1,平均為-7.151 Kg·hm-2·(i0a)-1;蘇中為-94.069 ～18.646Kg·hm-2·(10a)-1,平均為-7.497 Kg·hm-2·( 10a)-1;蘇南為-14.176 ～9.973Kg·hm-2·(1Oa)-1,平均為-0.746 Kg·hm-2·(10a)-1。江蘇農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源變化引起單產(chǎn)較上年增長(zhǎng)率改變量,全省為-0.120%· (10a)- ,蘇北為-0.071%· (10a)-1,蘇中為-0.110%. (10a)—1,蘇南為-0.205%· (10a) -1。即農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源變化引起了江蘇冬小麥單產(chǎn)和單產(chǎn)較年際增長(zhǎng)率的雙負(fù)增長(zhǎng),對(duì)提高冬小麥單產(chǎn)是極為不利的。(3)不同生育階段發(fā)生澇漬害的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)隨生育進(jìn)程推進(jìn)而加大,全省澇漬害相對(duì)指數(shù)呈現(xiàn)緯向分布,蘇南蘇中蘇北。澇漬害重點(diǎn)發(fā)生區(qū)域在蘇南,蘇北極少發(fā)生。江蘇的干旱風(fēng)險(xiǎn)總體上由北向南減弱,蘇南和蘇中干旱風(fēng)險(xiǎn)都在輕度以下,蘇北冬小麥生育前后期都在輕度以上,少數(shù)時(shí)間達(dá)到重度,不同生育期干旱風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù),蘇北 蘇中 蘇南。江蘇冬小麥生長(zhǎng)發(fā)育期間北部以干旱影響為主,南部以澇漬害影響為主,中部以干旱和澇漬害共同影響為主,因此,對(duì)不同區(qū)域要采取不同的栽培管理技術(shù)措施來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)澇漬害和干旱的危害。正常氣候年景下,干旱對(duì)單產(chǎn)的影響程度要明顯大于澇漬害的影響,全省澇漬害和干旱的綜合影響均是引起單產(chǎn)下降,全省平均幅度占近5年單產(chǎn)平均的-0.78%。江蘇冬小麥生長(zhǎng)前期和后期隨著農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源變化,干旱有加重的趨勢(shì),且強(qiáng)度有增強(qiáng)的趨勢(shì)。播種到分蘗這一階段是決定能否一播全苗和壯苗越冬,而能否壯苗越冬對(duì)產(chǎn)量和品質(zhì)影響很大。拔節(jié)到成熟期間是產(chǎn)量和品質(zhì)形成的關(guān)鍵階段,期間發(fā)生旱情直接影響產(chǎn)量和品質(zhì)。因此,必須研究應(yīng)對(duì)干旱的抗逆栽培技術(shù)措施,減緩農(nóng)業(yè)氣候資源變化的影響。
[Abstract]:With global warming as the main feature of global climate change, the vulnerability of agricultural production in the world is obviously increased and it is harmful to the world food security. China is the world's first population country, and the food security has a direct impact on the stable development of the economy and society. Therefore, the influence of the change of agricultural climate resources in the climate resources on the food security is strengthened. Research is one of the important measures to ensure the stable development of economic and social construction. Jiangsu is one of the major grain producing areas in China, the total grain output is fifth in the country, and the winter wheat production in Jiangsu occupies about 7% of the country. Therefore, the study of the influence of agricultural climate resources and its changes on the growth and development of Winter Wheat in Jiangsu is taken to take positive measures. In order to ensure the stability of winter wheat production in Jiangsu, it is of great practical significance to ensure national grain security. Based on the observation data of winter wheat production and meteorological observation data of 1960-2015 years as the basis of the 1980-2015 year meteorological system in Jiangsu Province, the production and test data of the agricultural department are combined with the climatology and agricultural meteorology. The methods of physical culture, mathematical statistics and numerical simulation are used to evaluate the changes of agricultural climate resources in Jiangsu, the growth period of winter wheat, the factors of yield components and the effect of single yield, and provide the basis for scientific planting of Winter Wheat under the situation of agricultural climate change. The key meteorological factors during the growth and development of Winter Wheat in Jiangsu (light warm water) The changes of agricultural climate resources have changed obviously, and the changes of different growth stages and their influence on the growth and development of winter wheat are different. The specific results are as follows: (1) the proportion of cumulative sunshine hours in the whole growth period accounts for the average annual climate, -2.13% (10a) -1, Suzhou -0.71%. (10a) - 1, South of Jiangsu -1.27%. (10a) -1, the sunshine hours in the Soviet Union were relatively stable, and the northern Jiangsu and South of Jiangsu decreased significantly, especially in South of Jiangsu, the decrease in sunshine hours was more conducive to the aggravation of the field stains. The total temperature of the whole growth period of the whole province was increasing, the increase in the temperature of 0 degrees centigrade, the proportion of the increase in the average annual climate, the North Jiangsu 2.26% (10a) -1, the 2.37%. (10a) -1,2.47%. (103) -1 in Suzhou. The temperature rate increased from north to south. The climatic tendency of the temperature less than 0 C in the growth period was negative (only -0.03 ~ -0.01 C / 10A -1) was positive, and the northern Jiangsu was about 2 and 4 times of the Soviet neutralization and South of Jiangsu, and the overwintering period was more than 2 times of the other growth periods, that is, the whole growth period of the whole province was negative accumulated temperature, especially the overwintering period. The negative accumulated temperature has a tendency to decrease rapidly, making the winter wheat overwintering in Jiangsu become less and more obvious. The precipitation is higher or lower than 400mm, and the number of rain days in the whole period of the whole growth period accounts for 80.5% of the whole province, and the precipitation is mainly small rain, which is beneficial to soil moisture conservation, and the utilization of precipitation resources is reduced. Less runoff, alleviating the drought during the period of wheat growth. The change in the light and temperature production potential of the winter wheat during the whole growth period of Jiangsu winter wheat accounted for the percentage of the normal annual light and temperature production potential, except for a region of -3% (1 0A) -1 and 5%. (10A) - 1 in the middle of Northern Jiangsu and Northern Jiangsu, and the other regions were 3%. (10a) -1 (belong to the same level). The absolute value of the region and the percentage of each fertility was less than 5%. (10a) -1, and most of the growth stages were within 3%. (10a) -1. That is, the changes in agricultural climate resources did not cause a significant change in the production potential of Winter Wheat in Jiangsu. Mainly, this change trend is unfavorable for ensuring the foot panicle, but it is beneficial to the realization of large spikes, which is beneficial to the improvement of quality. (2) as the growth period of winter wheat advances from emergence to mature period, the time of its emergence is more and more stable. The onset time of the birth time tends to be stable, with the change of the agro climatic resources change very small. Therefore, the key stage of adjusting the length of the growth period by adjusting the growth period is before jointing. The influence of the change of agricultural climate resources on the number of spikes is different, the change of the whole growth period is increased mainly, which accounts for the normal climate. The effect of 1.98% (10a) (10a) -1. on the number of agro climatic resources in the annual growth period showed an alternation of "increase and decrease" in different growth periods. The change of the whole growth period was reduced mainly, and the period of -1.29% (10a) -1. filling in the normal climate accounted for 23.4% of the integrated filling period, 63.6% of the filling period and the slow filling period of the filling period. The key period for improving the quality of grain filling during the filling period is that the key period for improving the quality of grain filling is the period of rapid grouting. The difference of the influence degree of the time to time factors of the light and warm water caused by the change of agricultural climate resources on the different filling periods (gradually increasing, fast increasing, slowly increasing) is obvious, the temperature is 1.36g. D-1. (10a) - 1, and the precipitation is -1.35g. D-1. (10a) -1. The illumination time was 0.07 G. D-1. (10a) -1, and the comprehensive effect of light temperature water was 0.08g. D-1. (10a) -1, and the gradual increase period was 0.02 g D-1. (10a) -1. (10a) -1., the North Jiangsu is -20.229 to 18.942Kg. Him-2. (10a) -1, the average is -7.151 Kg hm-2. (i0a) -1. The annual growth rate changes, the province is -0.120% (10a) -, the northern Jiangsu is -0.071% (10a) -1, the Soviet Union is -0.110%. (10a) - 1, South of Jiangsu is -0.205%. (10a) -1. that the agricultural climate resources change the double negative growth of the winter wheat yield and the interannual growth rate of the winter wheat in Jiangsu, which is extremely unfavorable to raising the yield of winter wheat. (3) different reproductive stages. The risk of waterlogging and waterlogging is increased with the growth process, and the relative index of waterlogging and waterlogging in South of Jiangsu is zonal distribution. The key areas of waterlogging in Northern Jiangsu Province are in South of Jiangsu, and North Jiangsu rarely occurs. The drought risk in Jiangsu is generally weakened from north to south, and the drought risks in South of Jiangsu and Suzhou are all below the mildly, and the winter wheat in Northern Jiangsu is in the early and late period of birth. They are all in the light, a few time to severe, different period of drought risk index, northern Suzhou South of Jiangsu. During the period of Winter Wheat in Jiangsu, the northern part of winter wheat is mainly drought, the south is mainly affected by waterlogging, and the central part is drought and waterlogging. Therefore, different cultivation management techniques should be taken to different regions. In the normal climate, the impact of drought on the yield of single yield is obviously greater than that of waterlogging, and the comprehensive effects of waterlogging and drought in the province are all caused by the decrease of single yield, and the average range of the province's average yield of -0.78%. Jiangsu winter wheat in the early and late period of the province is with the agricultural climate capital. In this stage of sowing to tillering, it is determined whether the whole seedling and the strong seedlings can be overwintered, and whether the overwintering of the strong seedlings will have a great influence on the yield and quality. The period of jointing to maturity is the key stage of the yield and quality formation, and the drought affects the yield and quality directly. We must study the measures to cope with drought resistance and mitigate the impact of changes in agro climatic resources.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：S512.11

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

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本文編號(hào)：2066465