本文選題：增長減速 + 潛在增長率　； 參考：《華中科技大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：2008年國際金融危機(jī)以來,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長明顯放緩,從高速增長轉(zhuǎn)入中高速增長。對于這輪的增速下降到底是由于長期潛在增長率下降引起的還是外部沖擊導(dǎo)致的短期經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,學(xué)術(shù)界仍存在分歧。因此,估計(jì)我國當(dāng)前GDP潛在增長率及當(dāng)產(chǎn)出缺口對正確理解我國當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力并制定合適的宏觀調(diào)控政策具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文試圖對我國1978—2014年的潛在GDP和產(chǎn)出缺口進(jìn)行估算,并比較了常見的5種統(tǒng)計(jì)濾波方法的優(yōu)劣。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文使用統(tǒng)計(jì)性描述以及計(jì)量回歸模型,詳細(xì)考察了影響潛在GDP增長率的諸因素的變化情況。本文研究結(jié)論主要有:(1)從2008年開始,我國的潛在GDP增長率開始出現(xiàn)大幅下滑,同時期產(chǎn)出缺口也由正轉(zhuǎn)負(fù),顯示出2008年國際金融危機(jī)以來,我國出現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速下降是長期潛在增長率下降和短期外部沖擊導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)出下降共同作用的結(jié)果。(2)自2008年以來,我國勞動力、資本、全要素這三大要素的增長率都出現(xiàn)了惡化:其一,人口老齡化在加重,老年贍養(yǎng)比在攀升,同時20-29歲年齡段的勞動力占比在下降;其二,從2000年起我國的資本存量增長率在不斷攀升,這導(dǎo)致從2008年至2014年期間,增量資本產(chǎn)出比(ICOR)上升了3倍,資本的邊際產(chǎn)出率已經(jīng)降到了近30年來最低點(diǎn);其三,從2012年以后,我國越來越多省份的TFP增長率由正轉(zhuǎn)負(fù)。基于以上結(jié)論,本文認(rèn)為提高我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率需完善養(yǎng)老保障制度,提高勞動參與率;完善經(jīng)濟(jì)體制,提高TFP增長率;加快國企改革,加強(qiáng)國企市場化導(dǎo)向,提高國企投資效率。
[Abstract]:Since the 2008 international financial crisis, China's economic growth has slowed obviously, from high-speed growth to high-speed growth. Academia remains divided over whether the slowdown in growth is due to a long-term potential decline in growth or a short-term recession caused by external shocks. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to estimate the potential growth rate of GDP and the output gap in order to correctly understand the downward pressure of China's current economy and formulate appropriate macro-control policies. This paper attempts to estimate the potential GDP and output gap in China from 1978 to 2014, and compares the advantages and disadvantages of five common statistical filtering methods. On this basis, the statistical description and the econometric regression model are used to investigate in detail the changes of the factors affecting the growth rate of potential GDP. The main conclusions of this paper are: (1) since 2008, China's potential GDP growth rate has begun to decline sharply, and the output gap has also changed from positive to negative in the same period, which shows that since the 2008 international financial crisis, The decline in China's economic growth rate is the result of both the decline in long-term potential growth rate and the decline in output caused by short-term external shocks.) since 2008, China's labor force, capital, The growth rate of all three elements has deteriorated: first, the aging population is increasing, the old-age dependency ratio is rising, and the proportion of the workforce in the 20-29 age group is declining. Since 2000, China's capital stock growth rate has been rising, which has led to a threefold increase in incremental capital output compared with ICOR between 2008 and 2014, and the marginal output ratio of capital has fallen to its lowest level in nearly 30 years; thirdly, since 2012, the marginal output ratio of capital has dropped to the lowest level in nearly 30 years. The growth rate of TFP in more and more provinces of China has changed from positive to negative. Based on the above conclusions, this paper holds that to improve the economic growth rate of our country, we should improve the old-age security system, improve the labor participation rate, perfect the economic system, improve the TFP growth rate, accelerate the reform of state-owned enterprises, strengthen the market-oriented orientation of state-owned enterprises. We will improve the investment efficiency of state-owned enterprises.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F124

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