本文選題：飽和負(fù)荷 + 負(fù)荷預(yù)測　； 參考：《南昌大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,城市用電量也快速增長,常規(guī)的負(fù)荷預(yù)測方法,已經(jīng)難以適應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會發(fā)展需求,難以做到適度超前的規(guī)劃以及與城市規(guī)劃的銜接。整個電網(wǎng)中最靠近用戶的就是配電網(wǎng),它對用電的可靠性和安全性起到至關(guān)重要的作用�？茖W(xué)規(guī)劃好這個部分,對電網(wǎng)的穩(wěn)定性和經(jīng)濟(jì)要求都有很現(xiàn)實(shí)的意義。本課題立足于城市發(fā)展的用電需求以及對城市的布局進(jìn)行詳細(xì)的規(guī)劃,提出了基于生長曲線和計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型的飽和負(fù)荷預(yù)測方法,與此同時,給出電力系統(tǒng)飽和負(fù)荷綜合預(yù)測法,給城市配電網(wǎng)遠(yuǎn)期規(guī)劃作出負(fù)荷依據(jù)。城市飽和負(fù)荷密度是電網(wǎng)發(fā)展最后規(guī)模的關(guān)鍵性指標(biāo)。研究它,就基本確定了城市電網(wǎng)發(fā)展的最后規(guī)模,可以超前規(guī)劃線路走廊的變電站布點(diǎn),且可以將遠(yuǎn)景電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃為目標(biāo)對近期電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃與建設(shè)進(jìn)行指導(dǎo),就可以大大減少不必要的改、擴(kuò)建工程,將因此產(chǎn)生的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失減到最少,協(xié)調(diào)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和電網(wǎng)建設(shè)規(guī)劃之間的步調(diào)。本文以贛州市為分析算例,結(jié)合灰色理論中的灰色關(guān)聯(lián)法對社會經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)中影響用電量的各因素進(jìn)行分析,采用贛州新區(qū)GDP及人口微計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型的最基本的指標(biāo)。然后,運(yùn)用了三種方法對未來贛州市電力系統(tǒng)的飽和負(fù)荷進(jìn)行預(yù)測。實(shí)例證明,預(yù)測精度最高的辦法是基于生長曲線與計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型法結(jié)合的綜合預(yù)測方法。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy and the rapid growth of urban electricity consumption, it is difficult for the conventional load forecasting methods to adapt to the needs of economic and social development, to achieve moderate ahead planning and to link up with urban planning. The distribution network is the closest to the users in the whole power grid, which plays a vital role in the reliability and safety of power consumption. Scientific planning of this part is of practical significance to the stability and economic requirements of power grid. Based on the demand of urban development and the detailed planning of urban layout, this paper puts forward the saturation load forecasting method based on growth curve and econometric model, at the same time, The comprehensive forecasting method of saturated load of power system is presented, and the load basis for the long term planning of urban distribution network is given. Urban saturated load density is a key indicator of the final scale of power grid development. By studying it, the final scale of urban power network development is basically determined, the substation layout of line corridor can be planned ahead of time, and the long-term power network planning can be taken as the goal to guide the planning and construction of power grid in the near future. It can greatly reduce the unnecessary reform, expand the project, reduce the economic losses to the minimum, and coordinate the pace between economic development and power network construction planning. This paper takes Ganzhou City as an example and analyzes the factors affecting electricity consumption in the social economic system by combining the grey correlation method in grey theory. The most basic indexes of GDP and population microeconometric model in Ganzhou New area are adopted. Then, three methods are used to predict the saturation load of Ganzhou electric power system in the future. An example shows that the most accurate method is a comprehensive forecasting method based on the combination of growth curve and econometric model.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南昌大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：TM715

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本文編號：2001789