本文選題：天津港 + ARMA模型��； 參考：《天津大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化迅速發(fā)展的當(dāng)下,進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易經(jīng)濟(jì)顯得尤其重要,對(duì)國(guó)家或者區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的貢獻(xiàn)也越來(lái)越大,同時(shí)港口物流服務(wù)的需求量也慢慢增長(zhǎng)這都要?dú)w功于進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的快速發(fā)展,而作為物流服務(wù)供應(yīng)鏈上重要節(jié)點(diǎn)的港口在現(xiàn)代物流業(yè)中所占的比重也越來(lái)越大。根據(jù)天津統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒統(tǒng)計(jì),天津絕大部分進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的物流服務(wù)都由天津港承擔(dān),所以天津進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的發(fā)展中天津港物流業(yè)的發(fā)展水平顯得尤為重要。截止至2014年,天津港貨物吞吐量達(dá)5.4億噸,集裝箱吞吐量達(dá)4.53億噸,同時(shí)居世界第四位。進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易總額近些年持續(xù)、快速的增長(zhǎng),特別是面對(duì)國(guó)家“一帶一路”重大戰(zhàn)略實(shí)施的新機(jī)遇,這幾年天津港進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易額增長(zhǎng)非常迅猛,但是天津進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易的發(fā)展比天津港的發(fā)展對(duì)比顯得更快,天津港還出現(xiàn)了幾點(diǎn)問題:理念落后、功能性產(chǎn)能不足和過剩等。在發(fā)展國(guó)家“一帶一路”重大戰(zhàn)略的背景下,通過分析天津港物流業(yè)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀、存在問題、發(fā)展條件等,本文建立了多元回歸和ARMA模型,對(duì)天津市未來(lái)5年的港口物流服務(wù)需求量和自身承載能力進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),旨在說(shuō)明天津市物流有擴(kuò)大的必要性;通過建立SWOT模型,提出了幾點(diǎn)天津港物流發(fā)展的對(duì)策,以期在未來(lái)天津港物流發(fā)展中得到借鑒。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of world economic integration, the import and export trade economy is particularly important, and its contribution to the national or regional economy is increasing. At the same time, the demand for port logistics services is also slowly increasing, which is due to the rapid development of import and export trade, and as an important node in the logistics supply chain, the port accounts for an increasingly large proportion in the modern logistics industry. According to statistics of Tianjin Statistical Yearbook, Tianjin Port undertakes most of the logistics services of import and export trade, so the development level of Tianjin Port logistics industry is particularly important in the development of Tianjin import and export trade. By 2014, Tianjin Port's cargo throughput reached 540 million tons and container throughput reached 453 million tons, ranking fourth in the world. The total volume of import and export trade has been increasing continuously and rapidly in recent years, especially in the face of the new opportunity of implementing the important strategy of "Belt and Road", the volume of import and export trade of Tianjin Port has been increasing very rapidly in recent years. However, the development of Tianjin import and export trade is more rapid than that of Tianjin Port. There are several problems in Tianjin Port: backward concept, insufficient functional capacity and excess. Under the background of developing the important strategy of "Belt and Road" of the country, this paper establishes the multiple regression and ARMA model by analyzing the present situation, existing problems and developing conditions of the logistics industry in Tianjin Port. This paper forecasts the demand for port logistics service and the carrying capacity of Tianjin in the next five years in order to explain the necessity of the expansion of Tianjin logistics, and through the establishment of SWOT model, puts forward some countermeasures for the development of Tianjin port logistics. With a view to the future of Tianjin Port logistics development to be used for reference.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F552.7;F259.27

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