本文選題：霧霾 + 影響因素�。� 參考：《陜西師范大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,中國(guó)多地出現(xiàn)空氣質(zhì)量日益惡化的情況,“霧霾”也隨之進(jìn)入大眾視線,成為社會(huì)熱點(diǎn)問題之一。本次大范圍的爆發(fā)霧霾,是生產(chǎn)要素和資源大量消耗的粗放式經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展必然會(huì)帶來的環(huán)境問題；霧霾還使得能見度降低,城鎮(zhèn)的交通事故發(fā)生的概率比平時(shí)高；此外霧霾還影響大眾的健康安全；霧霾問題還是中國(guó)工業(yè)化進(jìn)程中面臨的巨大挑戰(zhàn)。霧霾的產(chǎn)生具有一定的季節(jié)性周期,多發(fā)于深秋和冬季。其易在有大量污染源排放出一次氣溶膠和二次氣溶膠的前體物且無風(fēng)濕度較大的天氣里形成。可見霧霾的形成其中一個(gè)不可忽略的關(guān)鍵因素就是污染源,而這些污染物多由經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)產(chǎn)生,故霧霾與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之間的關(guān)系橋梁就此搭建。為了進(jìn)一步探究各省市自治區(qū)霧霾影響因素和差異。選擇了空氣質(zhì)量指數(shù)(AQI)作為霧霾的量化指標(biāo)。并用天氣因素、能源耗量、城鎮(zhèn)發(fā)展三類指標(biāo)來對(duì)AQI影響因素進(jìn)行描述。天氣因素包括溫度、降雨和風(fēng)力：能源銷量包括煤炭、成品油的耗量和天然氣消耗量；城鎮(zhèn)發(fā)展則選取在建工程建筑面積、汽車保有量和第二產(chǎn)業(yè)生產(chǎn)總值的占比、城鎮(zhèn)人口。其中天氣因素是自然變量,能源消耗和城鎮(zhèn)發(fā)展為是人為變量。本次研究采用聚類分析和全局因子分析來探索霧霾的影響因素。選取了中國(guó)25個(gè)省市,采集了2013年12月至2015年12月共25個(gè)月的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)。首先對(duì)25個(gè)省市的空氣質(zhì)量指數(shù)(AQI)進(jìn)行了統(tǒng)計(jì)描述,發(fā)現(xiàn)在傳統(tǒng)的劃分省市區(qū)域時(shí),在部分區(qū)域內(nèi)省市間存在著一定差異性,而在區(qū)域間部分區(qū)域卻存在著一定的相似性。故為了對(duì)25個(gè)省份進(jìn)行合理分區(qū),采用K均值聚類法,根據(jù)各省AQI的動(dòng)態(tài)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分類,最終將所有省市分為三組,并依據(jù)霧霾的嚴(yán)重程度,分別命名為重度區(qū)、中度區(qū)和輕度區(qū)。其中,重度區(qū)包括北京、河北、河南和山東；中度區(qū)包括安徽、黑龍江、湖北、湖南、江蘇、吉林、遼寧、陜西、山西、四川、天津、浙江和重慶；輕度區(qū)包括福建、甘肅、廣東、廣西、貴州、江西、上海和云南。隨后,再分別對(duì)這三組地區(qū)進(jìn)行全局因子分析得到各區(qū)的公共因子,并發(fā)現(xiàn)三組的公共因子之間存在差異,其中重度區(qū)著重的是城鎮(zhèn)發(fā)展因子(月成品油消耗量、月在建工程的施工面積、月汽車保有量和月城鎮(zhèn)人口數(shù)),其中三大能源中的煤炭和天然氣與第二產(chǎn)業(yè)占比出現(xiàn)了相關(guān)性；中度區(qū)著重的是綜合城鎮(zhèn)發(fā)展因子(月煤炭消耗量、月成品油消耗量、月天然氣消耗量、月在建工程的施工面積、月汽車保有量、月城鎮(zhèn)人口數(shù)),并且第二產(chǎn)業(yè)占比單獨(dú)成為了一個(gè)公因子；輕度區(qū)中,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展因子作為關(guān)鍵公因子包含了除氣象指標(biāo)以外的所有變量。根據(jù)本文的結(jié)論得出三組區(qū)域的省市需要根據(jù)各組特點(diǎn)實(shí)施治理霧霾的政策。重度區(qū)內(nèi)的省市需采用低排放式優(yōu)化城鎮(zhèn)發(fā)展,配合上降低第二產(chǎn)業(yè)占比的組合方式；中度區(qū)內(nèi)的省市需采用低排放式優(yōu)化城鎮(zhèn)發(fā)展和第二產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部技術(shù)升級(jí)以降低能源消耗的方法；輕度區(qū)內(nèi)的省份需要堅(jiān)持盡可能持續(xù)保持優(yōu)化所有經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的低污染性。本文的研究特色和創(chuàng)新之處主要體現(xiàn)在以下兩個(gè)方面：第一,分析變量的選取和數(shù)據(jù)頻率。霧霾是較為復(fù)雜的氣象現(xiàn)象,因此選取變量必須要考慮氣象變量。而且所選取的數(shù)據(jù)頻率為月度,這也是為了與霧霾的周期性相一致進(jìn)行了調(diào)整,但有些變量不能直接獲取月度數(shù)據(jù),要通過自定義的計(jì)算方法才能獲取。第二,根據(jù)AQI的動(dòng)態(tài)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行聚類分析,得出霧霾不同程度的分組。再根據(jù)分組,得出每組之間的影響公因子,進(jìn)行省際比較分析。
[Abstract]:In recent years, more and more air quality has deteriorated in China. The haze has also entered the public view and became one of the hot issues in the society. This large-scale outbreak of fog and haze is an inevitable environmental problem that will inevitably bring about the extensive consumption of production factors and resources, and the haze also reduces visibility, towns and cities. The probability of traffic accidents is higher than usual; in addition, haze also affects the health and safety of the public, and the haze problem is a huge challenge in the process of industrialization in China. The haze has a certain seasonal cycle, mostly in the late autumn and winter. It is easy to release an aerosol and two aerosols in a large number of sources. It can be seen that one of the key factors that can not be ignored is the source of pollution, and these pollutants are mostly produced by economic activities, so the bridge between haze and economic development is built. In order to further explore the factors and differences of haze in provinces and municipalities. The air quality index (AQI) is used as a quantitative indicator of haze, and the influence factors of AQI are described with weather factors, energy consumption and urban development. The weather factors include temperature, rainfall and wind power: the energy sales include coal, the consumption of finished oil and the consumption of natural gas, and the urban development is selected in the construction area of construction, There are natural variables, energy consumption and urban development are human variables. This study uses cluster analysis and global factor analysis to explore the influence factors of haze. In this study, 25 provinces and cities in China were selected and 25 were collected from December 2013 to December 2015. The relevant data of the month. First, the statistical description of the air quality index (AQI) of the 25 provinces and cities is made. It is found that there are certain differences in the provinces and municipalities in the traditional division of provinces and municipalities, but there are some similarities in some regions. Therefore, the reasonable partition of the 25 provinces and the use of the K mean clustering are used. According to the dynamic data of AQI in each province, the method is divided into three groups, which are divided into three groups. According to the severity of the haze, they are named as severe, moderate and mild. Among them, the severe areas include Beijing, Hebei, Henan and Shandong, and the moderate areas include Anhui, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangsu, Jilin, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and four. In Sichuan, Tianjin, Zhejiang and Chongqing, the mild areas include Fujian, Gansu, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Jiangxi, Shanghai and Yunnan. Then, the public factors of the three groups are analyzed by the global factor analysis, and the difference between the three groups of public factors is found. Consumption, the construction area of the month, the monthly car ownership and the number of urban population in the month, of which coal and gas in the three major energy sources are related to the proportion of the second industry, and the moderate areas are focused on the comprehensive urban development factors (monthly coal consumption, monthly oil consumption, monthly natural gas consumption, and the construction surface of the construction project. " The product, the monthly car ownership, the monthly urban population number), and the second industry occupation ratio has become a public factor alone; in the mild area, the economic development factor as the key public factor contains all the variables except the meteorological index. According to the conclusion of this article, the province and the city of the three groups need to implement the policy of harnessing the haze according to the characteristics of each group. The provinces and cities in the severe area should adopt the low emission model to optimize the development of cities and towns, cooperate with the combination mode of reducing the proportion of the second industry. The provinces and cities in the moderate area should adopt the method of optimizing the urban development and the upgrading of the internal technology of the second industry to reduce the energy consumption. The provinces in the mild areas need to persist in maintaining the optimization as far as possible. The characteristics and innovation of this paper are mainly reflected in the following two aspects: first, the selection of analysis variables and the frequency of data. Haze is a more complex meteorological phenomenon. Therefore, the selection of variables must consider the meteorological variables. And the frequency of the selected data is monthly, which is also for the fog and haze. The periodicity has been adjusted, but some variables can not get the monthly data directly. Second, according to the dynamic data of the AQI, the clustering analysis is carried out to get the groups of different degrees of fog and haze. Then, according to the group, the influence public factors in each group are obtained, and the interprovincial comparative analysis is carried out.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：陜西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：X513

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