本文選題：債務(wù)困境 + 地方債券��； 參考：《陜西科技大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國分稅制的改革和市場經(jīng)濟的深化,地方政府的財政資金的缺口越來越大,地方政府不得不通過融資平臺大量舉債。最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2015年地方債務(wù)余額高達16萬億,其中15.4萬億是2014年以前的存量,僅有1萬多億是人大批準(zhǔn)過的,其余都不合規(guī)的債務(wù)。巨大的債務(wù)壓力引起了一片恐慌,國家緊急出臺政策整頓地方融資平臺的不合規(guī)的舉債行為。為了給地方經(jīng)濟注入新的活力,同時防范隱性債務(wù)風(fēng)險,地方政府債券開始走入中國市場,幫助地方政府拓寬融資渠道,緩解資金壓力。從2009年到2016年我國地方債券的發(fā)行逐步放開,到目前為止各省級政府都有自主發(fā)行地方債券權(quán)利,但發(fā)行規(guī)模還需受中央的限額管理。所以預(yù)測地方債券的最適規(guī)模成為當(dāng)前研究最重要、最迫切的問題。只有消除中央對于地方債券規(guī)模風(fēng)險的憂慮,地方債券的發(fā)行才能實現(xiàn)真正意義的市場化。本文就是在此背景下展開對地方債券的研究,借助資產(chǎn)負債表法和修正的KMV模型,建立了地方債券最適規(guī)模的非線性預(yù)測模型。通過分析我國地方債券偏離最優(yōu)安全規(guī)模程度以及調(diào)整優(yōu)化的成本,實證考察地方債券發(fā)行規(guī)模的動態(tài)調(diào)整機制。并進一步挖掘地方債券的債務(wù)效益,基于增量分析法,在上述計量模型的基礎(chǔ)上反推出地方債券帶來的經(jīng)濟和社會效益,實現(xiàn)債務(wù)效益的量化評價。這也是本文一大創(chuàng)新點,即建立了一個既可以預(yù)測地方債券發(fā)行規(guī)模又能進行債務(wù)效益評價的計量模型,為以后相關(guān)研究和政府決策提供借鑒的思路。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),KMV模型的兩大修正——流動資產(chǎn)和轉(zhuǎn)移系數(shù)都在某種程度上放大了地方債券的最優(yōu)安全發(fā)債規(guī)模。但是地方債券發(fā)行量不僅僅取決于最優(yōu)安全發(fā)債規(guī)模,還與上一年地方債券發(fā)行量和調(diào)整優(yōu)化的成本有關(guān),所以地方債券的最適發(fā)債規(guī)模預(yù)測值并沒有放大,是符合實際的。地方債券發(fā)行不僅能為居民帶來社會效益而且為企業(yè)、地方政府和地區(qū)發(fā)展帶來經(jīng)濟效益,所以發(fā)行地方債券是解決目前債務(wù)困境的最佳方式,是現(xiàn)代財稅制度的必然要求,更是社會和諧發(fā)展、人民安居樂業(yè)的必然選擇。
[Abstract]:With the reform of the tax distribution system and the deepening of the market economy, the gap of the local government's financial funds is increasing, and the local government has to borrow a large amount of debt through the financing platform. According to the latest data, the balance of local debt reached 16 trillion in 2015, of which 15.4 trillion were pre-2014 stocks, with just over one billion approved by the NPC and the rest of the unruly debt. Huge debt pressures have caused panic, and the country has urgently put in place policies to clean up substandard borrowing by local financing vehicles. In order to inject new vitality into the local economy and guard against the risk of implicit debt, local government bonds began to enter the Chinese market to help local governments broaden financing channels and ease the financial pressure. From 2009 to 2016, the issuance of local bonds in China has been gradually liberalized. Up to now, all provincial governments have the right to issue local bonds independently, but the size of issuance still needs to be managed by the central authorities. Therefore, predicting the optimal size of local bonds has become the most important and urgent issue. Only by eliminating the central concern about the risk of local bond scale can the issuance of local bonds realize the marketization of real meaning. In this context, this paper studies the local bonds and establishes a nonlinear forecasting model for the optimal size of local bonds by using the balance sheet method and the modified KMV model. Based on the analysis of the degree of deviation from the optimal safety scale and the cost of adjustment and optimization, the dynamic adjustment mechanism of local bond issuance scale is investigated empirically. And further excavate the debt benefit of the local bond, based on the increment analysis method, on the basis of the above metrological model, the economic and social benefits brought by the local bond are put forward, and the quantitative evaluation of the debt benefit is realized. This is also one of the innovations of this paper, that is, to establish a quantitative model that can predict the size of local bond issuance and evaluate the debt benefit, which can provide a reference for related research and government decision-making in the future. It is found that the two major modifications of KMV model, current assets and transfer coefficients, to some extent magnify the optimal safe issuance of local bonds. But the amount of local bond issuance depends not only on the optimal size of safe bond issuance, but also on the amount of local bond issuance and the cost of adjusting the optimization, so the forecast value of the optimal local bond issuance size is not enlarged, which is realistic. Local bond issuance can not only bring social benefits to residents, but also bring economic benefits to enterprises, local governments and regional development. Therefore, issuing local bonds is the best way to solve the current debt distress and is an inevitable requirement of the modern fiscal and taxation system. Is the social harmonious development, the people live and work in peace and contentment inevitable choice.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：陜西科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F812.5

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