本文選題：銀行信貸 + 房地產價格　； 參考：《華南理工大學》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：從經濟學理論的角度來看,銀行信貸、房地產價格和經濟增長三者之間存在密切的關系。銀行信貸是我國房地產市場最主要的資金來源,也是政府調控房地產市場的重要工具之一,房地產市場是關系到國計民生的重要產業(yè)之一,對維系經濟穩(wěn)定、推動經濟增長十分重要。目前國內對三者關系的研究主要集中于全國層面,且多為房地產價格和銀行信貸之間兩者關系的研究,然而我國地大物博,各地資源稟賦差異、城市化進程和經濟發(fā)展差異等都會對當?shù)氐姆康禺a市場、經濟發(fā)展政策等產生較大影響,尤其是一些具有明顯區(qū)域特點的城市,其銀行信貸、房地產價格和經濟增長的互動關系如何,該方面研究尚屬稀少。近年來我國經濟增速普遍放緩,產業(yè)升級和結構調整壓力明顯增大,深圳作為改革開放一直以來的排頭兵,其發(fā)展速度和發(fā)展質量對全國起著重要的示范作用。從整體經濟運行來看,近年來深圳地區(qū)GDP增長快速,同時其銀行信貸投放也增長迅速,數(shù)據(jù)顯示,深圳地區(qū)的銀行信貸中有相當一部分資金流向了房地產行業(yè),資金集結樓市使得深圳房地產價格近年持續(xù)高漲,2015年一手房銷售價格漲幅更是達到40%。目前深圳房地產市場的投資過熱、價格瘋漲現(xiàn)狀,給深圳地區(qū)的經濟健康和金融安全埋下隱患�；谏钲诘臍v史使命和發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,有必要對深圳地區(qū)銀行信貸、房地產價格和經濟增長之間的互動關系進行跟蹤研究。本文主要按照理論分析-實證分析-對策建議的思路展開研究。本文首先從理論角度剖析了銀行信貸、房地產價格和經濟增長之間互動關系的影響機制,為深入理解三者作用關系奠定理論基礎,并在此基礎上初步分析了近年來深圳地區(qū)三者的實際表現(xiàn)和作用關系,為下文的實證結果埋下參照。其次,本文選取了2007年3月到2015年12月期間深圳地區(qū)銀行信貸、房地產價格和經濟增長的相關季度數(shù)據(jù)并對其進行初步加工處理后,根據(jù)現(xiàn)代計量經濟學理論建立起滯后3期的VAR模型,并在此基礎上進行了協(xié)整檢驗和Granger因果關系檢驗。協(xié)整檢驗結果表明,在深圳地區(qū)的實體經濟中,銀行信貸、房地產價格和GDP之間存在長期協(xié)整關系:房地產價格每變化1個百分點,GDP將變化0.0519個百分點,兩者之間有較為顯著的正向關系;銀行信貸每變化1個百分點,GDP將變化0.009個百分點,表明深圳地區(qū)的銀行信貸增長在拉動經濟增長方面作用有限。此外,Granger因果關系檢驗結果顯示,深圳地區(qū)的銀行信貸總額對房地產價格存在單向影響關系。最后,基于理論分析和實證分析結果,本文針對深圳地區(qū)的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)提出了五點針對性的政策建議。
[Abstract]:From the angle of economic theory, there is a close relationship among bank credit, real estate price and economic growth. Bank credit is the most important source of funds for the real estate market in our country, and it is also one of the important tools for the government to regulate the real estate market. The real estate market is one of the important industries related to the national economy and the people's livelihood, and it is of great importance to the maintenance of economic stability. It is very important to promote economic growth. At present, the domestic research on the relationship between the three is mainly focused on the national level, and most of them are the research on the relationship between real estate prices and bank credit. The process of urbanization and the differences in economic development will have a great impact on the local real estate market, economic development policies, etc., especially in some cities with obvious regional characteristics, their bank credit, The relationship between real estate prices and economic growth is rare. In recent years, the economic growth rate of our country has generally slowed down, and the pressure of industrial upgrading and structural adjustment has increased obviously. Shenzhen, as the vanguard of reform and opening up, its development speed and quality play an important role in the demonstration of the whole country. Judging from the overall economic operation, in recent years, GDP in the Shenzhen region has grown rapidly, while its bank credit has also increased rapidly. Data show that quite a portion of the bank credit in the Shenzhen area has gone to the real estate industry. The capital build-up in the property market has kept real estate prices soaring in Shenzhen in recent years, with sales of primary homes rising by 40% in 2015. At present, the investment in Shenzhen's real estate market is overheated and prices are soaring, which has laid hidden dangers for the economic health and financial safety of Shenzhen. Based on Shenzhen's historical mission and development situation, it is necessary to track and study the interaction among bank credit, real estate price and economic growth in Shenzhen. This article mainly carries on the research according to the theory analysis-the demonstration analysis-the countermeasure suggestion train of thought. This paper first analyzes the influence mechanism of the interactive relationship among bank credit, real estate price and economic growth from a theoretical point of view, so as to lay a theoretical foundation for a deep understanding of the relationship between the three. On the basis of this, the paper preliminarily analyzes the actual performance and the function relationship of the three in Shenzhen area in recent years, which is a reference for the empirical results below. Secondly, this paper selects the relevant quarterly data of bank credit, real estate price and economic growth in Shenzhen from March 2007 to December 2015, and after processing them, According to the modern econometrics theory, the VAR model with three lag periods is established, and the cointegration test and Granger causality test are carried out on the basis of this model. The results of co-integration test show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between bank credit, real estate prices and GDP in the real economy of Shenzhen: every 1 percentage point change in real estate prices will change 0.0519 percentage points. There is a significant positive relationship between the two, and every 1 percentage point change in bank credit will change 0.009 percentage points of GDP, indicating that the growth of bank credit in Shenzhen has a limited role in driving economic growth. In addition, Granger causality test results show that the total amount of bank credit in Shenzhen has a one-way impact on real estate prices. Finally, based on the results of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward five pertinent policy recommendations for the research findings in Shenzhen.
【學位授予單位】：華南理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F832.4;F299.23;F124.1

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本文編號：1895051