本文選題：人口紅利 + 撫養(yǎng)比　； 參考：《廣西大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開(kāi)放以來(lái),隨著社會(huì)主義市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的迅速發(fā)展,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速增長(zhǎng),已成為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展速度最快的國(guó)家之一。與此同時(shí),我國(guó)人口的劇烈增長(zhǎng)對(duì)社會(huì)帶來(lái)了諸多改變,例如由人口增長(zhǎng)所帶來(lái)的人口紅利的變化,以及人口紅利的變化使得經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的方式進(jìn)一步發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)變。如何有效的把握這種轉(zhuǎn)變成為了關(guān)鍵。人口紅利問(wèn)題包含著較為豐富的內(nèi)容,像人口數(shù)量紅利、人口結(jié)構(gòu)紅利以及人口質(zhì)量紅利,其對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有著各自不同的貢獻(xiàn)和影響。本文基于國(guó)內(nèi)外對(duì)人口經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)分析的角度,對(duì)于改革開(kāi)放以來(lái),我國(guó)人口紅利的嬗變以及其對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式的影響進(jìn)行分析。本文運(yùn)用一定計(jì)量與統(tǒng)計(jì)方法像Holt-Winters、lasso對(duì)于數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行處理,分別從簡(jiǎn)單觀察與數(shù)據(jù)驗(yàn)證兩個(gè)角度考察人口紅利的嬗變,并按階段歸納總結(jié)其規(guī)律與特點(diǎn);同時(shí)從產(chǎn)業(yè)增速變遷、技術(shù)進(jìn)步變革以及勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率變化三個(gè)角度考察人口紅利嬗變對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式的影響。發(fā)現(xiàn)我國(guó)的各項(xiàng)人口紅利變化趨勢(shì)具有輪動(dòng)效應(yīng),其中:第一階段,人口因素主要依靠人口數(shù)量的增長(zhǎng),經(jīng)濟(jì)主要依靠勞動(dòng)要素粗放投入進(jìn)行拉動(dòng);第二階段,人口紅利主要依靠城鄉(xiāng)勞動(dòng)力的流動(dòng)以及微弱的人口撫養(yǎng)比的下降,勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率、人均產(chǎn)出小幅提升,經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)始向著集約化轉(zhuǎn)變;第三階段人口撫養(yǎng)比達(dá)到低谷對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)貢獻(xiàn)達(dá)到頂峰,同時(shí)結(jié)構(gòu)紅利趨緩,由教育累積而帶來(lái)的質(zhì)量紅利逐漸擴(kuò)大并出現(xiàn)蓬勃發(fā)展的趨勢(shì),高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)飛速增長(zhǎng)。同時(shí)在不同時(shí)期伴隨著人口紅利的不同經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的方式也隨之發(fā)生著相應(yīng)的變化。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, with the rapid development of the socialist market economy, China's economy has grown rapidly and has become one of the fastest developing countries in the world. At the same time, the rapid growth of population in our country has brought many changes to the society, such as the change of the demographic dividend brought by the population growth, and the change of the demographic dividend, which makes the mode of economic growth change further. How to effectively grasp this change has become the key. The problem of population dividend contains rich contents, such as the dividend of population quantity, the dividend of population structure and the dividend of population quality, which have different contribution and influence to economic growth. Based on the analysis of population economics at home and abroad, this paper analyzes the evolution of demographic dividend and its influence on economic growth since the reform and opening up. This paper uses certain metrological and statistical methods such as Holt-Winterslasso to deal with the data, examines the evolution of demographic dividend from two angles of simple observation and data verification, and sums up its laws and characteristics according to the stages, at the same time, the change of industrial growth rate. The impact of demographic dividend evolution on economic growth is investigated from the perspectives of technological change and labor productivity change. It is found that the trend of demographic dividend changes in China has a rotational effect. In the first stage, the population factor mainly depends on the growth of the population, the economy mainly depends on the extensive input of labor factors to pull; the second stage, The demographic dividend mainly depends on the flow of urban and rural labor force and the decline of the population dependency ratio, labor productivity and output per capita increase slightly, and the economy begins to turn to intensive. In the third stage, the population dependency ratio reached a low point and reached the peak of economic contribution, while the structural dividend slowed down, the quality dividend brought by the accumulation of education gradually expanded and appeared the trend of vigorous development, and the high and new technology industry grew rapidly. At the same time, the different ways of economic growth accompanied by the demographic dividend have changed accordingly in different periods.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣西大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：C924.2;F124.1

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