本文選題：時(shí)間序列 + 回歸分析　； 參考：《長(zhǎng)春工業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速發(fā)展,經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化已經(jīng)成為不可避免的趨勢(shì),各企業(yè)都不可避免的需要面對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的挑戰(zhàn),有機(jī)遇同時(shí)更有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。同時(shí),計(jì)算機(jī)技術(shù)和統(tǒng)計(jì)軟件的發(fā)展使企業(yè)銷售預(yù)測(cè)被廣泛使用,一個(gè)優(yōu)秀的預(yù)測(cè)分析系統(tǒng)能夠幫助企業(yè)決策者進(jìn)行準(zhǔn)確而有效的決策,提高預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確度,從而相應(yīng)地減少安全庫(kù)存量,提高管理水平。所以,能夠準(zhǔn)確的把握企業(yè)營(yíng)銷的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)成為每個(gè)企業(yè)必須解決的問題。 本文以計(jì)量分析中的C-D生產(chǎn)函數(shù)及CES生產(chǎn)函數(shù)為基礎(chǔ),構(gòu)建企業(yè)營(yíng)銷估計(jì)的模型,主要進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)分析；同時(shí)根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)的特點(diǎn)建立了回歸與時(shí)間序列模型,揭示各種產(chǎn)品銷售量之間的數(shù)量聯(lián)系。利用統(tǒng)計(jì)和數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)軟件,對(duì)某企業(yè)2000年一2008年間的營(yíng)銷數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了分析,估計(jì)模型參數(shù)；然后,通過Chow檢驗(yàn)等方法,將上述估計(jì)模型,以不同因素對(duì)企業(yè)營(yíng)銷轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)進(jìn)行計(jì)量分析,得到了該企業(yè)在不同方面的營(yíng)銷轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn),根據(jù)估計(jì)所得的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn),對(duì)該企業(yè)在轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)前后的營(yíng)銷情況進(jìn)行分析,并對(duì)該企業(yè)營(yíng)銷情況提出了一些建議,以便企業(yè)更好地把握營(yíng)銷情況。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the world economy, economic globalization has become an inevitable trend, all enterprises inevitably need to face the challenges of economic globalization, there are opportunities at the same time more risks. At the same time, with the development of computer technology and statistical software, enterprise sales forecasting is widely used. An excellent forecasting and analysis system can help enterprise decision makers to make accurate and effective decisions and improve prediction accuracy. Accordingly, the safety inventory is reduced and the management level is improved. Therefore, to be able to accurately grasp the turning point of enterprise marketing has become a problem that every enterprise must solve. On the basis of C-D production function and CES production function in econometric analysis, this paper constructs the model of enterprise marketing estimation, mainly carries on the turning point analysis, and establishes the regression and time series model according to the characteristic of the data. Reveal the quantitative relationship between sales of various products. By using statistical and quantitative economic software, the marketing data of a certain enterprise from 2000 to 2008 are analyzed, and the model parameters are estimated. This paper analyzes the turning point of enterprise marketing with different factors, and obtains the turning point of marketing in different aspects. According to the estimated turning point, the paper analyzes the marketing situation of the enterprise before and after the turning point. And put forward some suggestions to the enterprise marketing situation, in order to better grasp the marketing situation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)春工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：O212.1

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