本文選題：隨機(jī)生產(chǎn)模擬 + 多狀態(tài)機(jī)組模型��； 參考：《合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著新能源產(chǎn)業(yè)的快速發(fā)展,風(fēng)電場(chǎng)和光伏電站的隨機(jī)性、間歇性和波動(dòng)性對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃運(yùn)行和安全經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行產(chǎn)生了巨大的影響,從而對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)隨機(jī)生產(chǎn)模擬的準(zhǔn)確性和靈敏性提出了更高的要求。因此,本文先介紹了隨機(jī)生產(chǎn)模擬的經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)指標(biāo)和實(shí)現(xiàn)方法,并分析了基于持續(xù)負(fù)荷曲線的隨機(jī)生產(chǎn)模擬方法的不足。針對(duì)傳統(tǒng)隨機(jī)生產(chǎn)模擬方法忽略負(fù)荷及新能源時(shí)序特性,不能考慮系統(tǒng)和機(jī)組運(yùn)行約束,不便獲得機(jī)組冷、熱啟動(dòng)次數(shù)和動(dòng)態(tài)成本等問(wèn)題,本文對(duì)考慮時(shí)序特性的電力系統(tǒng)隨機(jī)生產(chǎn)模擬方法展開(kāi)了研究。首先,針對(duì)負(fù)荷及新能源出力的時(shí)序特性,以及常規(guī)火電機(jī)組的不同運(yùn)行狀態(tài)(如降額、間歇、連續(xù))和分段情況,本文建立了時(shí)序負(fù)荷模型和多狀態(tài)機(jī)組模型。其中,時(shí)序負(fù)荷模型提取了負(fù)荷的頻率轉(zhuǎn)移信息;多狀態(tài)機(jī)組模型考慮了機(jī)組的爬坡時(shí)間限制、啟動(dòng)失敗概率及最小開(kāi)停機(jī)時(shí)間限制。另外,本文介紹了機(jī)組條件強(qiáng)迫停運(yùn)率的概念及計(jì)算方法,并分析了其與傳統(tǒng)的強(qiáng)迫停運(yùn)率的區(qū)別。其次,在前述負(fù)荷與機(jī)組模型的基礎(chǔ)上,本文提出了一種考慮負(fù)荷與新能源時(shí)序特性的電力系統(tǒng)隨機(jī)生產(chǎn)模擬方法。該方法引入了系統(tǒng)爬坡和旋轉(zhuǎn)備用容量約束,并給出了系統(tǒng)約束中各參數(shù)的修正方法。為提高新能源的接納量,降低系統(tǒng)的燃料成本,本文以?xún)?yōu)先接納風(fēng)、光為前提,在滿(mǎn)足系統(tǒng)約束的條件下,按單位燃料成本較小的火電機(jī)組優(yōu)先投運(yùn)的原則來(lái)確定機(jī)組的投運(yùn)順序,并根據(jù)機(jī)組的運(yùn)行情況進(jìn)行等值負(fù)荷曲線的卷積運(yùn)算,最終獲得系統(tǒng)的各項(xiàng)經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)指標(biāo)。再次,本文對(duì)考慮負(fù)荷與新能源時(shí)序特性的隨機(jī)生產(chǎn)模擬方法進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)地分析。為了驗(yàn)證該方法的正確性與有效性,將該方法與等效電量函數(shù)法的結(jié)果作了比較,并采用控制變量法說(shuō)明了考慮機(jī)組運(yùn)行因素的必要性。同時(shí),文中還單獨(dú)分析了負(fù)荷、風(fēng)電、光伏發(fā)電的時(shí)序特性對(duì)隨機(jī)生產(chǎn)模擬的影響。最后,為考慮風(fēng)、光及負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)出力的不確定性,本文將蒙特卡洛模擬法與解析法相結(jié)合,建立了一種考慮風(fēng)光荷不確定性的隨機(jī)生產(chǎn)模擬方法,并分別分析了風(fēng)電、光伏發(fā)電、負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)出力不確定性對(duì)隨機(jī)生產(chǎn)模擬的影響。文中首先采用模擬法對(duì)風(fēng)、光、負(fù)荷時(shí)序出力的預(yù)測(cè)誤差進(jìn)行抽樣,并經(jīng)計(jì)算獲得含風(fēng)光荷不確定性的凈負(fù)荷曲線各統(tǒng)計(jì)參數(shù)的分布函數(shù),然后進(jìn)行等值負(fù)荷的卷積運(yùn)算和生產(chǎn)模擬。為驗(yàn)證本文所提方法的實(shí)際應(yīng)用價(jià)值,文中以我國(guó)某省實(shí)際電網(wǎng)為例,對(duì)電網(wǎng)的風(fēng)電接納能力和棄風(fēng)情況進(jìn)行了評(píng)估。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of new energy industry, the randomness, intermittency and volatility of wind farm and photovoltaic power station have a great impact on the planning and operation of power system and safe economic operation. Therefore, the accuracy and sensitivity of stochastic production simulation of power system are required higher. Therefore, this paper first introduces the economic and technical indexes and implementation methods of stochastic production simulation, and analyzes the shortage of stochastic production simulation method based on continuous load curve. In view of the traditional stochastic production simulation method neglecting the load and new energy timing characteristics, the system and unit operation constraints can not be considered, and it is inconvenient to obtain the cooling, hot start times and dynamic cost of the unit, etc. In this paper, the stochastic production simulation method of power system considering time series characteristics is studied. Firstly, according to the time series characteristics of load and new energy output, as well as the different operation state (such as reducing, intermittent, continuous) and segmentation of conventional thermal power units, this paper establishes a sequential load model and a multi-state unit model. The time-series load model extracts the frequency transfer information of the load, and the multi-state unit model takes into account the run-up time limit, start-up failure probability and minimum start-up and downtime limit. In addition, this paper introduces the concept and calculation method of conditional forced outage rate, and analyzes the difference between it and the traditional forced outage rate. Secondly, on the basis of the above load and unit model, this paper presents a stochastic production simulation method for power system considering load and new energy timing characteristics. In this method, the system climbing and rotating reserve capacity constraints are introduced, and the method of modifying the parameters in the system constraints is given. In order to increase the intake of new energy and reduce the fuel cost of the system, this paper is based on the premise of preferential admission wind and light, under the condition of satisfying the system constraints. According to the principle of preferential operation of thermal power units with low unit fuel cost, the operation sequence of units is determined, and the convolution operation of equivalent load curves is carried out according to the operating conditions of the units. Finally, various economic and technical indexes of the system are obtained. Thirdly, the stochastic production simulation method considering load and new energy timing characteristics is analyzed in detail. In order to verify the correctness and validity of the method, the results of the method are compared with the results of the equivalent power function method, and the necessity of considering the operation factors of the unit is explained by using the control variable method. At the same time, the influence of time series characteristics of load, wind power and photovoltaic on stochastic production simulation is analyzed separately. Finally, in order to consider the uncertainty of wind, light and load forecasting forces, a stochastic production simulation method considering the uncertainty of wind load is established by combining Monte Carlo simulation method with analytical method, and wind power generation is analyzed separately. Photovoltaic power generation, load forecasting force uncertainty on the impact of stochastic production simulation. In this paper, the prediction error of wind, light and load time series is sampled by the simulation method, and the distribution function of the statistical parameters of the net load curve with uncertainty of wind load is obtained by calculation. Then the equivalent load convolution operation and production simulation. In order to verify the practical application value of the method proposed in this paper, an example of the actual power grid of a province in China is given to evaluate the wind power acceptance and abandonment of the power grid.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TM743

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本文編號(hào)：1866358