本文選題：經(jīng)濟周期 + 審計風(fēng)險��； 參考：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：宏觀經(jīng)濟的運行總是周而復(fù)始、連續(xù)不斷地經(jīng)歷著繁榮、衰退、蕭條和復(fù)蘇。目前審計工作面臨的最主要的宏觀環(huán)境就是經(jīng)濟周期的波動,在已發(fā)表的文獻(xiàn)中關(guān)于審計風(fēng)險的影響因素的研究主要集中在微觀層面,主要研究了企業(yè)的財務(wù)狀況、關(guān)聯(lián)方等重大交易、公司治理、內(nèi)部控制有效性、收入與支出等具體微觀經(jīng)濟行為對審計風(fēng)險的影響,而沒有考慮審計風(fēng)險也會受到宏觀經(jīng)濟周期波動這一宏觀環(huán)境的影響,因此本文引入宏觀經(jīng)濟周期波動這一宏觀因素來研究對審計風(fēng)險的影響,而不再局限于原有的微觀視角。許多領(lǐng)域的經(jīng)濟活動指標(biāo)會受到宏觀經(jīng)濟周期波動的影響從而產(chǎn)生同向的變化,這種影響被稱為宏觀經(jīng)濟周期的擴張性。審計作為重要的經(jīng)濟活動之一,當(dāng)然也會不可避免地受到這種擴張性的影響。本文將研究的重點從微觀指標(biāo)轉(zhuǎn)換到宏觀經(jīng)濟周期相關(guān)指標(biāo)與審計活動的聯(lián)動關(guān)系上面,對于影響審計風(fēng)險的因素的范圍進(jìn)行了一定程度的擴大。本文在經(jīng)濟周期這一大背景下,對審計風(fēng)險問題進(jìn)行研究,利用計量分析方法對宏觀經(jīng)濟周期、審計風(fēng)險的相關(guān)性與因果性進(jìn)行研究檢驗。在此基礎(chǔ)上提出假設(shè),本文提出兩個假設(shè):1.相比經(jīng)濟上升期,經(jīng)濟下降期的重大錯報風(fēng)險更高;2.相比經(jīng)濟上升期,經(jīng)濟下降期的檢查風(fēng)險更高;通過對兩個假設(shè)的實證檢驗結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析,從而得出經(jīng)濟周期與審計風(fēng)險的相關(guān)關(guān)系。本文以2007-2015年中國滬深兩市上市公司數(shù)據(jù)為研究樣本,構(gòu)建相應(yīng)的審計風(fēng)險模型,利用最小二乘法進(jìn)行多元回歸分析,從而對假設(shè)進(jìn)行檢驗并得出最終結(jié)論。最后說明本文研究的創(chuàng)新性、局限性以及為未來進(jìn)行更深入研究提出建設(shè)性意見。本文最終得出研究結(jié)論即相比于經(jīng)濟上升期,經(jīng)濟下降期的審計風(fēng)險更高。本文將經(jīng)濟周期與審計風(fēng)險相結(jié)合,既為現(xiàn)有經(jīng)濟周期的理論研究提供一定的微觀基礎(chǔ),也為審計風(fēng)險的理論研究提供了宏觀視角。該實證研究結(jié)論為我們更準(zhǔn)確的認(rèn)識經(jīng)濟周期與審計風(fēng)險的相互聯(lián)動影響關(guān)系提供了理論依據(jù),使我們可以更全面的把握在不同的宏觀經(jīng)濟周期階段中審計風(fēng)險的變化及其影響機制。因此,本文的研究結(jié)果對于今后的審計風(fēng)險的理論研究具有指導(dǎo)意義。
[Abstract]:The macro-economy always runs in cycles, experiencing booms, recessions, depressions, and recoveries. At present, the most important macroeconomic environment facing audit work is the fluctuation of economic cycle. In the published literature, the research on the influencing factors of audit risk is mainly focused on the micro level, which mainly studies the financial situation of enterprises. Related party and other major transactions, corporate governance, effectiveness of internal control, revenue and expenditure and other specific microeconomic behavior on audit risk, but not taking into account audit risk will also be affected by macroeconomic cycle fluctuations, Therefore, this paper introduces the macro factor of macroeconomic cycle fluctuation to study the impact on audit risk, and no longer confined to the original micro perspective. The indicators of economic activity in many fields will be influenced by the fluctuation of macroeconomic cycle, which is called expansibility of macroeconomic cycle. Audit as one of the important economic activities, of course, will inevitably be affected by this expansion. In this paper, the emphasis of the research is changed from microcosmic index to the linkage relationship between macroeconomic cycle related index and audit activity, and the scope of influencing factors of audit risk is expanded to a certain extent. In this paper, under the background of business cycle, the audit risk is studied, and the correlation and causality of audit risk are tested by econometric analysis method. On this basis, we propose two hypotheses: 1. The risk of major misstatement during the downturn is 2. 2% higher than during the upswing. Compared with the economic upswing period, the inspection risk in the economic decline period is higher, and the correlation between the economic cycle and the audit risk is obtained through the analysis of the empirical test results of two hypotheses. Based on the data of listed companies from 2007 to 2015 in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in China, this paper constructs a corresponding audit risk model and uses the least square method to carry out multivariate regression analysis, so as to test the hypothesis and draw the final conclusion. Finally, this paper explains the innovation and limitation of this study and puts forward constructive suggestions for further research in the future. The conclusion of this paper is that the audit risk is higher in the period of economic decline than in the period of economic growth. The combination of business cycle and audit risk not only provides a certain microscopic basis for the theoretical study of the existing economic cycle, but also provides a macro perspective for the theoretical study of audit risk. The conclusion of this empirical study provides a theoretical basis for us to understand the interaction between business cycle and audit risk more accurately. So that we can grasp the change of audit risk and its influence mechanism in different macroeconomic cycles. Therefore, the research results of this paper have guiding significance for the theoretical research of audit risk in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F239.4;F124.8

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