本文選題：水資源承載力 + 云模型　； 參考：《合肥工業(yè)大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：安徽省水資源時空分布不均,人均水資源量相對較少,局部地區(qū)水污染嚴重,加之居民節(jié)水意識淡薄和再生水利用率低等原因,水資源已成為其國民經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的瓶頸和關鍵因素之一。本文以宣城市為例,對宣城市水資源承載力和水資源優(yōu)化配置進行探討和研究,以期為當?shù)厮Y源的可持續(xù)開發(fā)利用提供借鑒。本文以宣城市水資源綜合規(guī)劃、水資源公報和安徽省統(tǒng)計年鑒等為數(shù)據(jù)基礎,從水資源系統(tǒng)、生態(tài)環(huán)境系統(tǒng)、社會系統(tǒng)和經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)四方面按相關原則選取了18個評價指標,根據(jù)評價等級和相關文獻報告的經(jīng)驗,通過試算確定了各指標的云模型3個數(shù)字特征、9)和0),構(gòu)建了基于云模型的宣城市水資源承載力評價模型。由AHP法和熵權法完成組合賦權,運用正向云發(fā)生器求取宣城市2010~2015年各評價指標隸屬于各等級的隸屬度,綜合權重后獲得系列年水資源承載力綜合評價結(jié)果。并將結(jié)果與密切值法的評級結(jié)果進行對比。評價結(jié)果顯示:云模型和密切值法評價結(jié)果基本一致,說明云模型評價有較好的適用性和可信性。根據(jù)最大隸屬度原則,宣城市2010~2015年水資源承載力均屬于Ⅳ級,即良好承載,說明宣城市近年來水資源承載力比較穩(wěn)定且維持在良好水平,仍有一定的開發(fā)利用潛力和承載潛力。宣城市豐富的水資源,較高的植被覆蓋和綠化率及逐年提高的單方水產(chǎn)出效率(單位GDP用水量降低)都有利于承載力提高;但快速發(fā)展的城鎮(zhèn)化、較大農(nóng)田灌溉定額和居民人均用水量都給水資源承載力帶來較大壓力。本文運用云模型對宣城市水資源進行承載力評價研究,將評價等級的模糊性和隨機性相結(jié)合,實現(xiàn)了定量、定性互相轉(zhuǎn)換,使結(jié)果更加合理。以可持續(xù)發(fā)展為原則,設定相應限制條件,選取生活、工業(yè)、農(nóng)業(yè)、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)和生態(tài)環(huán)境用水效益為多目標,建立基于多目標優(yōu)化的宣城市水資源配置模型,通過調(diào)用Matlab優(yōu)化工具箱中的fgoalattain函數(shù)對模型進行求解。通過不同決策傾向得到6種方案,并分析各用水部門的用水特點,為區(qū)域水資源利用效益最優(yōu)化提供決策依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:The distribution of water resources in Anhui Province is uneven in time and space, the amount of water resources per capita is relatively small, the water pollution in local areas is serious, and the residents' awareness of saving water is weak and the utilization rate of recycled water is low. Water resources have become one of the bottleneck and key factors in the development of national economy. Taking Xuancheng as an example, this paper discusses and studies the carrying capacity and optimal allocation of water resources in Xuancheng, in order to provide reference for the sustainable development and utilization of local water resources. Based on the comprehensive planning of water resources in Xuancheng, the Bulletin of Water Resources and the Statistical Yearbook of Anhui Province, this paper selects 18 evaluation indexes from four aspects of water resources system, ecological environment system, social system and economic system according to the relevant principles. According to the evaluation grade and the experience of the related literature, the cloud model of each index is determined by trial calculation, and the evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity of Xuancheng city based on the cloud model is constructed. The combined weighting is accomplished by AHP method and entropy weight method. The membership degree of Xuancheng 2010 ~ 2015 evaluation index is obtained by using the forward cloud generator, and the comprehensive evaluation results of water resources carrying capacity are obtained after synthesizing the weight. The results are compared with the results of the close-value method. The evaluation results show that the cloud model is basically consistent with the close value method, which shows that the cloud model evaluation has good applicability and credibility. According to the principle of maximum degree of membership, the water resources carrying capacity of Xuancheng belongs to grade 鈪，

本文編號：1795456