本文選題：涇河流域 + 干旱危機(jī)診斷��； 參考：《長安大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：干旱災(zāi)害作為一個全球性問題,其對社會發(fā)展造成的影響極大。在我國,旱災(zāi)帶來的損失位居所有自然災(zāi)害損失之首,極大地阻礙了農(nóng)業(yè)、社會經(jīng)濟(jì)、牧業(yè)、生態(tài)環(huán)境等發(fā)展。單就農(nóng)業(yè)而言,建國以來,旱災(zāi)給農(nóng)業(yè)帶來的年均經(jīng)濟(jì)損失超過所有其它自然災(zāi)害損失之和。此外,在科學(xué)技術(shù)日趨發(fā)達(dá)的今天,旱災(zāi)仍是一個丞待解決的難題。且有資料表明,在氣候變化的影響下,干旱情勢在近幾十年更趨嚴(yán)峻,如何緩解干旱災(zāi)害帶來的影響已成為世界矚目的熱點(diǎn)課題。國內(nèi)外學(xué)者對此進(jìn)行了大量相關(guān)研究,內(nèi)容涉及干旱規(guī)律、干旱評價、干旱預(yù)警以及干旱管理等各個方面。然而研究中我們發(fā)現(xiàn)以往研究多集中于氣象水文要素、下墊面要素、氣候模式要素與干旱事件本身的相關(guān)分析,對干旱發(fā)展過程中人為因素和生態(tài)因素的考慮并不充分,難以全面獲知旱情發(fā)展過程中的復(fù)雜過程及其潛在影響。再者,由于氣象水文序列受到人類活動的干擾,其已不再滿足一致性要求,且干旱過程中的各因子之間的相互作用關(guān)系亦受其影響,這使得傳統(tǒng)研究中的統(tǒng)計分析、相關(guān)性分析結(jié)果,或單純結(jié)合氣候模式和氣象模式的干旱預(yù)報結(jié)果可能存在失真問題�；诖�,本研究以涇河流域?yàn)槔?圍繞研究區(qū)內(nèi)干旱規(guī)律與驅(qū)動機(jī)制解析、干旱危機(jī)診斷體系建立、面向干旱發(fā)展的二元水循環(huán)模擬模型建立、基于二元水循環(huán)的干旱危機(jī)診斷與調(diào)控體系等方面,對考慮人類活動影響的干旱診斷與調(diào)控體系模式展開了研究。其主要研究內(nèi)容及所得結(jié)論如下:一、干旱規(guī)律與驅(qū)動機(jī)制解析。從自然水循環(huán)與社會水循環(huán)兩個角度出發(fā),分析干旱情勢的演變規(guī)律。在自然水循環(huán)角度,從氣象因子、氣候因子、水文枯水指標(biāo)以及地文因子方面,分析其與干旱事件的關(guān)聯(lián)性;在社會水循環(huán)角度,從研究區(qū)用水量、用水結(jié)構(gòu)的演變分析其相伴關(guān)系,從供水水源以及調(diào)蓄工程方面分析干旱事件發(fā)生發(fā)展的歸因,試圖更為全面地解析干旱災(zāi)害的驅(qū)動過程。二、干旱危機(jī)診斷體系建立。在確定干旱危機(jī)診斷指標(biāo)甄選原則基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合研究區(qū)干旱災(zāi)害驅(qū)動機(jī)制分析結(jié)果,從氣象、水源情勢以及盈缺關(guān)系三個角度構(gòu)建干旱危機(jī)診斷指標(biāo)體系。并詳細(xì)說明了體系中各指標(biāo)的獲取方式與途徑,強(qiáng)調(diào)人類活動在干旱事件發(fā)展過程中扮演的重要角色,指出要真實(shí)地反映干旱演變過程,必須在指標(biāo)體系中納入人類活動的影響。而二元水循環(huán)模擬模型作為自然-人類二元耦合模型,正是反映人類活動與自然過程耦合的重要手段。三、面向干旱危機(jī)的二元水循環(huán)模擬模型。二元水循環(huán)模擬是干旱危機(jī)診斷的基礎(chǔ),是指標(biāo)獲取的重要途徑。二元水循環(huán)模擬模型的建立包括SWAT分布式水文模型的建立、水資源配置模型的建立和模型耦合三個部分。水文模型與水資源配置模型的耦合主要涉及時間尺度、空間尺度以及輸入輸出接口的耦合。四、基于二元水循環(huán)的干旱危機(jī)診斷與調(diào)控體系建立。危機(jī)診斷與調(diào)控體系體系是將危機(jī)診斷體系與面向干旱危機(jī)發(fā)展的二元水循環(huán)模擬模型的融合,通過二元水循環(huán)模型驅(qū)動干旱危機(jī)診斷體系的滾動運(yùn)行,融合調(diào)控手段后,可實(shí)現(xiàn)“預(yù)警—預(yù)決策—預(yù)決策效果分析—預(yù)決策修正—決策”的循環(huán)滾動式危機(jī)診斷與調(diào)控決策過程,可輔助干旱管理的科學(xué)量化進(jìn)程。五、實(shí)例分析。旨在將上述干旱危機(jī)診斷與調(diào)控體系體系,代入實(shí)際案例應(yīng)用,以驗(yàn)證所提模型與方法的合理性。以涇河流域2013年7月~2014年6月為研究時段,對流域內(nèi)Sub1-Sub27等27個子流域的干旱過程逐一進(jìn)行模擬,并以子流域?yàn)榛締卧?以慶陽片區(qū)、平?jīng)銎瑓^(qū)以及咸陽片區(qū)3子分區(qū)為評價單元,對區(qū)域干旱情勢發(fā)生發(fā)展過程進(jìn)行詳細(xì)的對比分析。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)干旱危機(jī)診斷與調(diào)控體系較為科學(xué)合理,預(yù)警結(jié)果可靠。根據(jù)預(yù)警結(jié)果選取適宜抗旱措施后可有效緩解旱情,認(rèn)為其可應(yīng)用于實(shí)際。
[Abstract]:Drought is a global problem, its impact on the social development greatly. In China, the drought losses among all natural disasters for the first time, greatly hindered the social economy, agriculture, animal husbandry, ecological environment development. Agriculture alone, since the founding of new China, the average annual economic losses to agricultural drought bring over all other natural disasters loss. In addition, in science and technology increasingly developed today, the drought is still a problem to be solved. And the data show that the effects of climate change, drought situation in recent ten years is more serious, how to alleviate the effects of drought disaster has become a hot topic the world's attention. The domestic and foreign scholars have conducted extensive research, involving the rules of drought, drought evaluation, various aspects of drought early warning and drought management. However, I have found that previous research studies The focus on meteorological and hydrological factors, underlying surface factors, correlation analysis of climate model elements and drought event itself, the human factors and ecological factors of drought in the development process of consideration is not sufficient, it is difficult to fully learn the complex process of drought in the process of development and its potential impact. Furthermore, the meteorological and hydrological sequence disturbance by human activities and it is no longer satisfy the consistency requirements, the relationship between each factor and the process of drought also affected, which makes the research in traditional statistical analysis, correlation analysis, or simple combination of drought forecast results of climate model and meteorological model may exist distortion problem. Based on this, this study in Jinghe basin for example, around the study area drought regularity and driving mechanism analysis, establish Drought Crisis diagnosis system, the two yuan water cycle simulation model was established for drought development base In two yuan of water cycle of Drought Crisis Control and diagnosis system, considering the influence of human activities on drought diagnosis and mode control system is studied. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows: first, the rules of drought and driving mechanism analysis. From the natural water cycle and water cycle society two angles, evolution analysis of drought situation. In view of the natural water cycle, from meteorological factors, climatic factors, hydrological water index and physiographic factors, correlation analysis and drought events; in the perspective of social water cycle, water from the study area, the evolution of water structure analysis of the associated relationship, from water supply and storage engineering attribution analysis drought event development, to more comprehensive analysis of drought driven process. Two, establish Drought Crisis diagnosis system. In determining the diagnosis index of the original selection of Drought Crisis On the basis of a combination of drought disasters in the study area driving mechanism analysis, from the weather, water shortage and surplus situation and three aspects of relationship building Drought Crisis diagnosis index system. And a detailed description of the access mode and way of index in the system, emphasizing the important role of human activities play in the development process of drought event, pointed out the need to reflect the drought, the impact of human activities must be included in the index system. And the two yuan water cycle simulation model as a natural human two element coupling model is an important means to reflect human activities and natural processes. The coupling simulation model of three, two yuan of water for drought crisis cycle. Two yuan water cycle simulation is the basis of Drought Crisis diagnosis, is an important way to obtain the index. Two models of water circulation is established including SWAT distributed hydrological model, water resources allocation model. The three part set and model coupling. Coupling of hydrological and water resources allocation model mainly involves time scale, spatial scale and coupled input and output interface. Four, the Drought Crisis diagnosis and control system is established based on water circulation of two yuan. The crisis control and diagnosis system is the system integration simulation model of two yuan water crisis diagnosis system with the development of the crisis oriented drought cycle, through two yuan water circulation model driven rolling operation Drought Crisis diagnosis system, integration control means, can realize the "pre warning decision - pre decision effectiveness analysis - correction - pre decision making" circulation crisis diagnosis and control decision process of rolling, can assist the drought management the scientific quantification process. Five, aimed at the analysis of an example. Drought Crisis Control and diagnosis system, into the actual case application, reasonable to verify the proposed model and method. In the Jinghe River Basin. In July 2013 ~2014 year in June for the study period, the drought process within the basin Sub1-Sub27 27 sub basins by simulation, and the sub basin as the basic unit in the Qingyang area, Pingliang area and Xianyang area 3 sub partitions for the evaluation unit, occurrence and development process of regional drought situation detailed comparative analysis study found that crisis control and diagnosis system of drought early warning of more scientific and reasonable, reliable results. According to the result of early warning the selection of appropriate anti drought measures can effectively alleviate the drought, it can be applied to practice.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：長安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：P426.616

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