本文選題：專用道公交優(yōu)先 + 駐站時(shí)間預(yù)測(cè)��； 參考：《北方工業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的日益發(fā)展,城市公共交通服務(wù)建設(shè)成為城市道路交通發(fā)展的重中之重。公交信號(hào)優(yōu)先干線協(xié)調(diào)因其實(shí)施方便、效果突出等特點(diǎn)能很好的提高城市公共交通服務(wù)水平。在公交專用道連續(xù)性得到提升的前提下,進(jìn)一步研究專用道公交干線優(yōu)先控制方法將具有更強(qiáng)的實(shí)際應(yīng)用價(jià)值。本文從專用道公交車輛駐站時(shí)間入手,結(jié)合專用道公交干線協(xié)調(diào)控制分區(qū)判據(jù)的研究,完善專用道公交社會(huì)車輛干線協(xié)調(diào)策略,具體主要分為以下三個(gè)部分:第一、專用道公交駐站時(shí)間預(yù)測(cè)�；跈z測(cè)器數(shù)據(jù)經(jīng)過(guò)數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)處理得到特定班次前后車到站時(shí)間間隔以及后車駐站時(shí)間的數(shù)據(jù)矩陣,采用多項(xiàng)式回歸、指數(shù)函數(shù)回歸、指數(shù)函數(shù)回歸等措施對(duì)其回歸擬合,采用皮爾遜系數(shù)對(duì)其回歸精度篩選以確定預(yù)測(cè)模型,通過(guò)平均預(yù)測(cè)精度來(lái)衡量駐站時(shí)間預(yù)測(cè)精度,最后通過(guò)蒙特卡洛算法和均值聚類算法計(jì)算動(dòng)態(tài)優(yōu)化誤差閾值,實(shí)現(xiàn)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果的動(dòng)態(tài)優(yōu)化。第二、專用道干線協(xié)調(diào)分區(qū)判據(jù)。首先,基于第一部分的駐站時(shí)間預(yù)測(cè),結(jié)合現(xiàn)有的專用道公交車輛的進(jìn)站平均速度和離站平均速度,以路段車輛檢測(cè)器的檢測(cè)時(shí)刻為準(zhǔn)推算公交車到達(dá)下游交叉口的時(shí)間;其次,通過(guò)結(jié)合下游交叉口的現(xiàn)有配時(shí)策略,統(tǒng)計(jì)半小時(shí)內(nèi)公交車的一次性通過(guò)率,通過(guò)對(duì)一次性通過(guò)率矩陣進(jìn)行偽F統(tǒng)計(jì)量分析得到最佳分類數(shù),將一維歐氏距離采用均值聚類算法分成最佳類別;最后,通過(guò)周期判斷原則分析上下游交叉口間的分區(qū)關(guān)系,最終得到專用道公交的干線協(xié)調(diào)分區(qū)。第三、多時(shí)段干線協(xié)調(diào)下專用道公交優(yōu)先。首先,基于譜聚類算法實(shí)現(xiàn)公交車輛的浮動(dòng)加權(quán)處理得到體現(xiàn)公交優(yōu)先的加權(quán)流量,并據(jù)此流量通過(guò)采用時(shí)間序列劃分算法研究單點(diǎn)的多時(shí)段劃分需求;實(shí)現(xiàn)多時(shí)段劃分和周期計(jì)算中體現(xiàn)公交優(yōu)先的目標(biāo);然后,依據(jù)干線協(xié)調(diào)優(yōu)化算法,對(duì)干線交叉口信號(hào)控制進(jìn)行優(yōu)化,以達(dá)到最大協(xié)調(diào)帶寬;最后,經(jīng)過(guò)仿真驗(yàn)證該策略的有效性和可靠性。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy, the construction of urban public transport service has become the most important part of urban road traffic development.The coordination of bus signal priority trunk lines can improve the service level of urban public transportation because of its convenient implementation and outstanding effect.On the premise of improving the continuity of bus lanes, it will be of more practical value to further study the priority control method of bus trunk lines.In this paper, starting with the stop time of public transport vehicles in special lanes, combined with the study of the criterion of coordinated control zoning of bus trunk lines of exclusive lanes, the coordination strategy of social trunk lines of public transport in special lanes is improved. The main contents are as follows: first,The bus stop time forecast.Based on the data preprocessing of the detector data, the data matrix of the time interval between the arrival and arrival of the train before and after a specific shift and the time of the rear train stop are obtained. The polynomial regression, the exponential function regression, the exponential function regression and so on are used to fit the data matrix.The regression accuracy of Pearson coefficient is screened to determine the prediction model, the prediction accuracy is measured by the average prediction precision, and the dynamic optimization error threshold is calculated by Monte Carlo algorithm and mean clustering algorithm.Dynamic optimization of prediction results is realized.Second, the special track trunk line coordinates the partition criterion.First of all, based on the first part of the station time prediction, combined with the existing bus stop average speed and exit average speed, based on the detection time of the vehicle detector in the section of the road to calculate the time of the bus to the downstream intersection;Secondly, by combining the existing timing strategy of the downstream intersection, the one-off pass rate of the bus within half an hour is counted, and the best classification number is obtained by the pseudo-F statistic analysis of the one-off pass rate matrix.The one-dimensional Euclidean distance is divided into the best category by means of the mean value clustering algorithm. Finally, the partition relationship between the upstream and downstream intersections is analyzed according to the principle of periodic judgment, and the coordinated trunk line partition of the dedicated public transportation is finally obtained.Third, under the coordination of multi-time trunk lines, public transport is preferred.Firstly, based on the spectral clustering algorithm, the floating weight processing of public transport vehicles is realized to get the weighted flow which reflects the priority of public transport. According to this, the demand of multi-time division of a single point is studied by using the time series partition algorithm.Realization of multi-time division and cycle calculation to reflect the goal of bus priority; then, according to the trunk line coordination optimization algorithm to optimize the trunk intersection signal control, in order to achieve the maximum coordinated bandwidth; finally,The effectiveness and reliability of the strategy are verified by simulation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北方工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：U491.54

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 覃鵬;王正;;公交被動(dòng)優(yōu)先下基于客流量的信號(hào)優(yōu)化方法研究[J];交通科技;2015年05期

2 張惠玲;尹寶計(jì);敖谷昌;;基于速度變化量的車輛折算系數(shù)研究[J];科學(xué)技術(shù)與工程;2015年22期

3 楊震;王煒;陳淑燕;丁浩洋;;干線公交綠波通行控制中公交專用相位的設(shè)置方法[J];東南大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2014年04期

4 薛行健;;城市快速路匝道合流區(qū)匯入車輛折算系數(shù)研究[J];重慶交通大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2015年01期

5 王建;鄧衛(wèi);;基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)組合模型的公交駐站時(shí)間預(yù)測(cè)[J];城市交通;2012年05期

6 徐天順;;譜聚類算法研究[J];電腦知識(shí)與技術(shù);2012年16期

7 梁乙朝;;公交信號(hào)優(yōu)先技術(shù)助力北京公共交通發(fā)展[J];公路交通科技;2011年S1期

8 胡華;高云峰;楊曉光;;考慮路網(wǎng)OD路徑的交叉口群動(dòng)態(tài)劃分方法[J];計(jì)算機(jī)工程與應(yīng)用;2010年31期

9 王瑞斌;王軍利;;信號(hào)交叉口公交優(yōu)先控制策略探討[J];中國(guó)人民公安大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2010年01期

10 馬萬(wàn)經(jīng);李曉丹;楊曉光;;基于路徑的信號(hào)控制交叉口關(guān)聯(lián)度計(jì)算模型[J];同濟(jì)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2009年11期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 楊希銳;考慮公交優(yōu)先的城市道路時(shí)空資源優(yōu)化方法研究[D];吉林大學(xué);2011年

2 李鳳;公交信號(hào)優(yōu)先協(xié)調(diào)控制理論與方法研究[D];吉林大學(xué);2009年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前7條

1 許秀華;公交車在公交�？空镜耐？繒r(shí)間研究[D];北京交通大學(xué);2015年

2 計(jì)曉昕;公交車到站時(shí)間預(yù)測(cè)模型與實(shí)證研究[D];北京交通大學(xué);2015年

3 陳耀如;公交站臺(tái)多�？课怀丝徒M織與智能引導(dǎo)[D];山東大學(xué);2014年

4 謝明隆;公共交通中的行程時(shí)間預(yù)測(cè)方法研究[D];華南理工大學(xué);2011年

5 朱慧;干線公交優(yōu)先信號(hào)協(xié)調(diào)控制方法研究[D];吉林大學(xué);2011年

6 謝穎;交通控制子區(qū)動(dòng)態(tài)劃分和信號(hào)協(xié)調(diào)優(yōu)化控制[D];廣西工學(xué)院;2011年

7 朱麗穎;公交車輛行程時(shí)間預(yù)測(cè)方法研究[D];北京交通大學(xué);2010年

，

本文編號(hào)：1753979