發(fā)布時間：2018-03-31 05:01

  本文選題：海區(qū)　切入點：AIS　出處：《大連海事大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來航運業(yè)不斷發(fā)展,海運經(jīng)濟的地位日益凸顯,船舶數(shù)量也增長到一定規(guī)模。然而,隨著船舶種類的多樣化、大型化和高速化,以及海上通航環(huán)境的日益復雜,使得海上交通事故頻發(fā),成為制約航運發(fā)展的一個主要因素。為保障船舶航行安全,減少不必要的航行事故,保障航運業(yè)持續(xù)發(fā)展,有必要對船舶在海上通航安全進行深入研究,建立科學的海上通航安全評價體系,從而為海上安全管理提供一定的依據(jù)。海區(qū)通航安全影響因素眾多,信息采集難度大,各因素重要程度及評價標準存在一定的未知性和模糊性,基于傳統(tǒng)的交通實態(tài)觀測數(shù)據(jù)難以滿足海區(qū)通航安全評價的要求,因此利用海量AIS信息經(jīng)過數(shù)據(jù)挖掘獲得的交通實態(tài)觀測數(shù)據(jù)對海區(qū)通航安全進行評價,彌補傳統(tǒng)交通實態(tài)觀測數(shù)據(jù)的不足。在大量閱讀相關文獻的基礎上,本文首先根據(jù)海區(qū)通航環(huán)境的特點,全面研究分析了影響海區(qū)通航安全的因素,并基于AIS信息中所能挖掘出的內(nèi)容,確定基于AIS實態(tài)觀測的海區(qū)通航安全評價指標體系,并對指標體系中各指標的評價標準進行研究。然后從兩個角度對海區(qū)通航安全進行評價。一是通航安全相對評價,即確定幾個不同海區(qū)通航安全程度的相對大小,通過多目標多層次模糊優(yōu)選理論,從層次結(jié)構(gòu)最底層計算,逐漸運算到最高層,最終選出高風險、低風險海區(qū)。二是通航安全絕對評價,定量判斷某一個海區(qū)的通航安全狀況,選用應用較廣泛的模糊綜合評價法對其進行評價;在評價指標權重確定過程中,采用改進的層次分析法—模糊層次分析法確定指標權重,克服傳統(tǒng)層次分析方法運算復雜及主觀因素影響過大的不足。最后,利用基于AIS數(shù)據(jù)的船舶交通流特性統(tǒng)計平臺統(tǒng)計成山頭水域船舶通航數(shù)據(jù),運用所建立的海區(qū)通航安全評價模型,分別進行海區(qū)通航安全相對評價和絕對評價,通過對評價結(jié)果分析,驗證兩種評價模型在海區(qū)通航安全評價中的科學性及可行性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the continuous development of shipping industry, the status of maritime economy has become increasingly prominent, and the number of ships has also increased to a certain scale. However, with the diversification of ship types, large-scale and high-speed, as well as the increasingly complex maritime navigation environment, The frequent occurrence of maritime traffic accidents has become a major factor restricting the development of shipping. In order to ensure the safety of navigation, reduce unnecessary accidents, and ensure the sustainable development of the shipping industry, It is necessary to conduct a deep study on the safety of navigation at sea and establish a scientific evaluation system of maritime navigation safety, which can provide a certain basis for maritime safety management. There are many factors affecting the safety of navigation in the sea area, and it is difficult to collect information. The degree of importance of various factors and the evaluation criteria are unknown and fuzzy to a certain extent. Based on the traditional traffic observation data, it is difficult to meet the requirements of navigational safety evaluation in the sea area. Therefore, the traffic real observation data obtained from massive AIS information through data mining are used to evaluate the navigation safety of the sea area, to make up for the deficiency of the traditional traffic real observation data. In this paper, according to the characteristics of navigation environment in the sea area, the factors affecting the navigation safety of the sea area are studied and analyzed, and based on the contents that can be excavated from the AIS information, the evaluation index system of navigation safety in the sea area based on the real observation of AIS is determined. And the evaluation criteria of each index in the index system are studied. Then the navigable safety of the sea area is evaluated from two angles. One is the relative evaluation of the navigation safety, that is, the relative magnitude of the navigable safety degree of several different sea areas. Based on the theory of multi-objective and multi-level fuzzy optimal selection, from the lowest level of hierarchical structure to the highest level, the high risk and low risk sea area is finally selected. The second is the absolute evaluation of navigable safety to quantitatively judge the navigable safety condition of a certain sea area. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, which is widely used, is used to evaluate the index weight, and the improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to determine the index weight in the process of determining the index weight. In order to overcome the disadvantages of traditional analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, which is complex in operation and too influenced by subjective factors, finally, the statistical platform of ship traffic flow characteristics based on AIS data is used to calculate ship navigation data in mountainous waters. The relative and absolute evaluation of navigable safety in the sea area is carried out by using the established evaluation model of navigation safety in the sea area. The scientific and feasibility of the two evaluation models in the evaluation of navigation safety in the sea area are verified by the analysis of the evaluation results.
【學位授予單位】：大連海事大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U698

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 牛佳偉;李連博;陳昌源;林威;;加權灰色關聯(lián)理論模型在遼寧海上交通事故分析與預測中的應用[J];上海海事大學學報;2016年01期

2 杜磊;文元橋;李正強;孫騰達;肖長詩;周春輝;;水上交通宏觀態(tài)勢評估模型[J];大連海事大學學報;2016年01期

3 肖瀟;邵哲平;潘家財;紀賢標;;基于AIS信息的船舶軌跡聚類模型及應用[J];中國航海;2015年02期

4 肖瀟;邵哲平;紀賢標;陳玲玲;;基于AIS信息的船舶進出港航速控制模型[J];上海海事大學學報;2014年04期

5 甄榮;邵哲平;潘家財;趙強;;基于AIS信息的航道內(nèi)船舶速度分布統(tǒng)計分析[J];集美大學學報(自然科學版);2014年04期

6 唐存寶;邵哲平;吳建生;唐強榮;;基于AIS信息的船舶密度分布算法的研究與實現(xiàn)[J];廣州航海高等專科學校學報;2012年03期

7 鄧術章;汪運濤;李光正;喬文明;;成山頭水域商船與漁船碰撞事故原因及對策[J];中國海事;2011年02期

8 李偉;胡甚平;尤慶華;席永濤;;港口水域通航風險評價的未確知測度模型[J];上海海事大學學報;2009年03期

9 秦庭榮;陳偉炯;葛育英;夏少生;張曉東;張善杰;;證據(jù)理論在港口航行環(huán)境安全組合評價中的應用[J];中國安全科學學報;2007年09期

10 鄭中義;黃忠國;吳兆麟;;港口交通事故與環(huán)境要素關系[J];交通運輸工程學報;2006年01期

，

本文編號：1689237