本文選題：人口普查質(zhì)量評估　切入點(diǎn)：事后調(diào)查法　出處：《天津財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策和社會發(fā)展規(guī)劃都需要依據(jù)國內(nèi)的人口狀況進(jìn)行制定,人口普查是各國獲取人口數(shù)據(jù)的主要方法,使用人口普查數(shù)據(jù)之前,首先要保證數(shù)據(jù)信息的準(zhǔn)確性,因此,人口普查質(zhì)量評估成為了人口普查工作的重中之重。國際上,常用的評估方法是事后調(diào)查法,基于捕獲再捕獲抽樣的雙系統(tǒng)模型是事后調(diào)查法的核心。雙系統(tǒng)模型在人口普查評估中的應(yīng)用存在三個問題:第一,雙系統(tǒng)模型的應(yīng)用需要嚴(yán)格的假設(shè)條件。第二,事后調(diào)查不僅提高了調(diào)查成本,還會給被調(diào)查者帶來負(fù)擔(dān)。第三,由于對人口信息的保密性,導(dǎo)致了國內(nèi)學(xué)者對雙系統(tǒng)模型的研究側(cè)重于理論解讀,實(shí)證研究較少。引入人口行政記錄改進(jìn)雙系統(tǒng)模型在我國的應(yīng)用,意在為人口普查質(zhì)量評估提供一個參考�？紤]到人口行政記錄的優(yōu)良性,可以用人口行政記錄數(shù)據(jù)來代替事后調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),構(gòu)建基于人口行政記錄的雙系統(tǒng)模型,以拓展雙系統(tǒng)模型在人口普查評估中的應(yīng)用。以中國第六次人口普查為例,與普查時間不一致的人口行政記錄,利用人口變動平衡方程進(jìn)行調(diào)整,使用第六次人口普查數(shù)據(jù)和調(diào)整后的人口行政記錄數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)建雙系統(tǒng)模型估計人口總量。由于人口行政記錄數(shù)據(jù)的來源不同,估計量結(jié)果也不盡相同,綜合考慮2009-2011年的人口行政記錄信息,對三個估計量做一個校準(zhǔn)估計,評估結(jié)果會更具有參考價值。結(jié)果顯示中國第六次人口普查質(zhì)量在可接受范圍內(nèi)。由于人口行政記錄是政府部門依法獲取的人口統(tǒng)計資料,數(shù)據(jù)來源完全獨(dú)立于人口普查,能夠克服普查和事后調(diào)查不獨(dú)立引起的交互作用偏差。此外,人口行政記錄數(shù)據(jù)具有獲取成本低、無回答少等優(yōu)點(diǎn)。建立基于人口行政記錄的雙系統(tǒng)模型,不僅能滿足雙系統(tǒng)模型適用的假設(shè)條件,還能在無微觀個人數(shù)據(jù)的情況下提供一種較好的人口估計方法。
[Abstract]:National economic policies and social development plans need to be formulated on the basis of the population situation in the country. Census is the main method used by countries to obtain population data. Before using census data, the accuracy of data information must be guaranteed first. Therefore, census quality assessment has become a top priority in census work. In the world, the commonly used assessment method is the ex post survey method. The dual system model based on capture and recapture sampling is the core of the ex post investigation method. There are three problems in the application of double system model in census assessment: first, the application of double system model needs strict assumptions. Ex post investigation not only increases the investigation cost, but also brings the burden to the respondents. Thirdly, because of the confidentiality of population information, the domestic scholars focus on the theoretical interpretation of the double system model. There are few empirical studies. The application of the improved dual system model of population administrative records in China is intended to provide a reference for the quality assessment of population census. We can use the population administrative record data instead of the ex post survey data, and construct the dual system model based on the population administrative record to expand the application of the double system model in the census evaluation. Take the 6th population census in China as an example. Administrative records of population that are inconsistent with census time are adjusted by using the balance equation of population change, Using 6th census data and adjusted population administrative record data to construct a double-system model to estimate the total population. Due to the different sources of population administrative record data, the estimated results are also different. Taking into account the information on the administrative records of the population for the period 2009-2011, a calibrated estimate of the three estimates is made, The results show that the quality of the 6th population censuses in China is within an acceptable range. Because the population administrative records are demographic data obtained by government departments according to law, the data source is completely independent of the census. It can overcome the interaction bias caused by the independence of census and ex post investigation. In addition, the population administrative record data has the advantages of low cost of obtaining, no answer and so on. A dual system model based on population administrative record is established. It can not only satisfy the hypothetical conditions of the two-system model, but also provide a better method for population estimation without microcosmic personal data.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：C924.25

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