本文選題：洪澇災(zāi)害　切入點：河南省　出處：《河南理工大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：洪澇災(zāi)害是當(dāng)今世界上發(fā)生比較頻繁,危害比較嚴(yán)重的一種自然災(zāi)害,對人類社會的影響和生態(tài)環(huán)境的破壞越來越大。本文以河南省作為研究區(qū)域,使用氣象觀測數(shù)據(jù)、社會經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)和基礎(chǔ)地理信息數(shù)據(jù);運(yùn)用相關(guān)數(shù)學(xué)統(tǒng)計分析方法和地理信息系統(tǒng)技術(shù),分析了河南省近54a極端降水事件時空格局變化,并構(gòu)建洪澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估指標(biāo)體系和模型,得到河南省縣域尺度洪澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險等級。最后從風(fēng)險管理角度出發(fā),提出了河南省洪澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理對策。研究結(jié)果主要包括以下幾個方面:(1)河南省近54 a來平均氣溫上升變化趨勢較為顯著,年降水總量呈下降趨勢,變化傾向率分別為0.17℃/10a和-6.72mm/10a,在年際變化上,河南省極端降水比率在54 a間呈上升趨勢,年大雨以上日數(shù)和最大三日降水量呈微弱下降趨勢,極端降水對研究區(qū)降水量的影響較大;在空間分布上,河南省大雨以上日數(shù)呈北多南少,最大三日降水量呈現(xiàn)西部少東部多,極端降水比率呈東北部高于西南部的空間格局。(2)河南省洪澇災(zāi)害危險性大致呈現(xiàn)由北向南逐漸增大的趨勢;河南省洪澇災(zāi)害社會脆弱性大致上呈現(xiàn)以“東北-西南”一線較高,兩側(cè)縣域社會脆弱性等級較低的空間分布格局。另外,大多數(shù)市轄區(qū)社會脆弱性低于一般縣(市)社會脆弱性,這與防災(zāi)減災(zāi)能力建設(shè)投入有很大關(guān)系。河南省洪澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險等級大致以“京廣鐵路”為界,以東地區(qū)明顯高于以西地區(qū)。全省洪澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險指數(shù)最高的五個縣域分別是息縣、商水縣、淮陽縣、汝南縣、新蔡縣。(3)在洪澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評估過程上,發(fā)現(xiàn)河南省洪澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險的變化特點。有氣候變化致使極端降水事件增多,從而使洪澇災(zāi)害危險性增多。加上社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展以及城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程,使得洪澇災(zāi)害脆弱性和洪澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險進(jìn)一步增加。針對河南省洪澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險較高的地區(qū),提出的具體洪災(zāi)風(fēng)險管理對策主要包括增強(qiáng)工程和非工程手段、災(zāi)害規(guī)避、增強(qiáng)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險抗御能力、完善洪澇災(zāi)害應(yīng)急預(yù)案、制定洪澇災(zāi)害保險制度等方面。研究結(jié)果可為提高河南省洪澇災(zāi)害風(fēng)險的防御能力,降低洪澇災(zāi)害社會經(jīng)濟(jì)損失提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Flood disaster is a kind of natural disaster which occurs frequently and harms seriously in the world today. It has more and more influence on human society and ecological environment. In this paper, Henan Province is taken as the research area and meteorological observation data are used. The changes of spatial and temporal patterns of extreme precipitation events in Henan Province over the past 54 years are analyzed by using relevant mathematical statistical analysis methods and geographic information system techniques, including social and economic data and basic geographic information data. The index system and model of flood hazard risk assessment are constructed, and the risk grade of flood disaster at county scale in Henan Province is obtained. Finally, from the angle of risk management, The countermeasures of flood risk management in Henan Province are put forward. The results of the study mainly include the following aspects: 1) the rising trend of average temperature in Henan Province in the past 54 years is obvious, and the total annual precipitation is decreasing. The variation tendency rates were 0.17 鈩，

本文編號：1585017