本文關(guān)鍵詞： 數(shù)據(jù)準(zhǔn)確性 修正Benford分布律 加權(quán)平均　出處：《天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)是統(tǒng)計(jì)決策的重要依據(jù),其準(zhǔn)確性直接影響著統(tǒng)計(jì)決策的正確性。統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)已經(jīng)被看作一種特殊的生產(chǎn)要素,準(zhǔn)確的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)已經(jīng)廣泛應(yīng)用于社會(huì)主義經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)、民主和法制建設(shè)中。在此背景下,國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者研究了眾多方法評(píng)估統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的準(zhǔn)確性。其中Benford分布律是評(píng)估數(shù)據(jù)準(zhǔn)確性的常用方法,被廣泛用于會(huì)計(jì)、審計(jì)領(lǐng)域,宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域等多個(gè)領(lǐng)域的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)準(zhǔn)確性評(píng)估。國(guó)內(nèi)學(xué)者對(duì)Benford分布律統(tǒng)計(jì)性質(zhì)方面的研究較少。適用于Benford分布律評(píng)估的數(shù)據(jù)需要滿足一定的假設(shè)條件,這使得Benford分布律的應(yīng)用存在一定的局限性。針對(duì)上述問(wèn)題,在對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者采用Benford分布律評(píng)估統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)準(zhǔn)確性的研究進(jìn)行了梳理后,隨機(jī)模擬比較了 Benford分布律與幾種常見分布。并且,總結(jié)了 Benford分布律的局限性。針對(duì)Benford分布律不能用于有界數(shù)據(jù)集準(zhǔn)確性評(píng)估的局限性,提出了修正Benford分布律。給出了修正Benford分布律的算法,以及用于數(shù)據(jù)準(zhǔn)確性評(píng)估的方法,通過(guò)統(tǒng)計(jì)模擬分析,比較了修正Benford分布律與Benford分布律之間的差異,結(jié)果顯示修正Benford分布律有較優(yōu)良的統(tǒng)計(jì)性質(zhì),與傳統(tǒng)的Benford分布律相比具有更好的適用性。并利用修正Benford分布律對(duì)367個(gè)縣級(jí)城市的主要數(shù)據(jù)準(zhǔn)確性進(jìn)行了評(píng)估。
[Abstract]:Statistical data is an important basis for statistical decision-making, and its accuracy directly affects the correctness of statistical decision-making. Statistical data have been regarded as a special factor of production, and accurate statistical data have been widely used in socialist economic construction. In the construction of democracy and legal system, scholars at home and abroad have studied many methods to evaluate the accuracy of statistical data. Benford distribution law is widely used in the field of accounting and auditing. The accuracy evaluation of statistical data in many fields, such as macroeconomic field, is seldom studied by domestic scholars. The data suitable for Benford distribution law evaluation need to satisfy some assumptions. This makes the application of Benford distribution law have some limitations. In view of the above problems, after combing the domestic and foreign scholars using Benford distribution law to evaluate the accuracy of statistical data, The Benford distribution law and several common distributions are compared by random simulation, and the limitations of Benford distribution law are summarized. The limitation of Benford distribution law can not be used to evaluate the accuracy of bounded data set. In this paper, the modified Benford distribution law is proposed, the algorithm of the modified Benford distribution law and the method used to evaluate the accuracy of the data are given. The difference between the modified Benford distribution law and the Benford distribution law is compared by statistical simulation analysis. The results show that the modified Benford distribution law has better statistical properties and better applicability than the traditional Benford distribution law, and the accuracy of the main data in 367 county-level cities is evaluated by using the modified Benford distribution law.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：C81

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