本文關(guān)鍵詞： 長期護(hù)理保險(xiǎn) 需求調(diào)查 Logit回歸模型 籌資能力 ARIMA模型　出處：《浙江財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：依據(jù)聯(lián)合國通用標(biāo)準(zhǔn),60歲年齡及以上的老年人群占總?cè)丝诘谋戎剡_(dá)到10%以上,則被定義為步入人口老齡化社會(huì)。在2000年,我國60歲年齡及以上的老年人群占總?cè)丝诘?0.2%,意味著我國在2000年開始進(jìn)入老齡化社會(huì)。而浙江早在1987年,60歲年齡及以上的老年人群占總?cè)丝诒戎爻^10%,標(biāo)志著浙江省進(jìn)入老齡化社會(huì)。截止2015年底,浙江省年齡在60歲及以上的老年人口的數(shù)量已經(jīng)達(dá)到985萬人,占總?cè)藬?shù)的比重為20.2%。其中,年齡在80歲及以上的老人有155.8萬人,占老年人口比重的15.84%,老齡化率與高齡化率均高于全國平均水平,意味著在浙江省,人口老齡化程度已經(jīng)相當(dāng)嚴(yán)重。浙江省目前失能和半失能老年數(shù)量為69.55萬人,占老年人口總數(shù)的比重為7.07%。隨著年齡的增加,老年人身體機(jī)能退化,患各種疾病、傷殘、失能的概率逐漸上升,使得老年人的生活自理能力下降,隨之而來的是人們對(duì)老年長期護(hù)理需求會(huì)大大增加。與此同時(shí),由于我國之前長期實(shí)施計(jì)劃生育政策,導(dǎo)致我國的家庭戶規(guī)模越來越小,“4-2-1”的倒金字塔家庭結(jié)構(gòu)比重不斷的增大。作為第三代需要贍養(yǎng)上面六個(gè)人,并且伴隨著生活和工作的壓力讓人照顧老人力不從心;除此之外,隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,就業(yè)人口的跨地區(qū)流動(dòng)和遷徙大大增加,造成了空巢家庭不斷增加。這些老年人不僅缺乏生活經(jīng)濟(jì)保障和日常生活的照料看護(hù),而且也容易出現(xiàn)心理疾病。由于家庭戶規(guī)模越來越小、“4-2-1”的倒金字塔家庭結(jié)構(gòu)和空巢家庭的不斷出現(xiàn),讓家庭養(yǎng)老的功能逐漸削弱,當(dāng)有老年人需要長期護(hù)理服務(wù)時(shí),家庭模式如今已難以承受。人口老齡化問題阻礙了社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,嚴(yán)重沖擊著社會(huì)保障體系。雖然目前的社會(huì)醫(yī)療保障制度普及率較高,然而保障水平較低,老人缺乏長期護(hù)理服務(wù)。建立適應(yīng)我國國情的長期護(hù)理保險(xiǎn)制度已經(jīng)刻不容緩,然而因?yàn)槲覈鱾�(gè)地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不平衡和文化不同的問題,希望短期內(nèi)構(gòu)建全國統(tǒng)一的長期護(hù)理保險(xiǎn)制度是不可能的,這需要根據(jù)不同地區(qū)的實(shí)際具體情況設(shè)計(jì)相應(yīng)的長期護(hù)理保險(xiǎn)制度。本文的內(nèi)容如下:第一,對(duì)長期護(hù)理保險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行理論分析,重點(diǎn)通過比較分析國內(nèi)外長期護(hù)理保險(xiǎn)的籌資模式,建議在浙江省建立社會(huì)保險(xiǎn)模式的的長期護(hù)理保險(xiǎn)制度。第二,對(duì)浙江省長期護(hù)理保險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行需求調(diào)查與費(fèi)用預(yù)測(cè)。首先描述當(dāng)前浙江省人口老齡化與護(hù)理需求概況,來說明在浙江省建立長期護(hù)理保險(xiǎn)制度的必要性。其次對(duì)浙江省人群長期護(hù)理保險(xiǎn)需求情況展開問卷調(diào)查,內(nèi)容包括身體狀況、家庭狀況、對(duì)長期護(hù)理保險(xiǎn)的購買意愿及實(shí)施模式等。運(yùn)用Logit回歸模型分析了解影響購買長期護(hù)理保險(xiǎn)的主要因素,并對(duì)未來的長期護(hù)理服務(wù)需求費(fèi)用進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。第三,評(píng)估浙江省長期護(hù)理保險(xiǎn)相關(guān)主體的籌資能力,利用統(tǒng)計(jì)模型評(píng)估政府、企業(yè)及個(gè)人的籌資能力,其中采用ARIMA模型預(yù)測(cè)政府的籌資能力,從而確定長期護(hù)理保險(xiǎn)制度可行的籌資主體。第四,基于浙江省長期護(hù)理保險(xiǎn)的需求調(diào)查與籌資能力評(píng)估結(jié)果,提出浙江省社會(huì)長期護(hù)理保險(xiǎn)制度的構(gòu)建方案,并為發(fā)展和完善浙江省長期護(hù)理保險(xiǎn)制度提出相應(yīng)的對(duì)策建議。問卷調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),當(dāng)前浙江省居民對(duì)長期護(hù)理保險(xiǎn)的需求較強(qiáng)烈,絕大多數(shù)人們希望政府建立社會(huì)長期護(hù)理保險(xiǎn)制度。對(duì)于社會(huì)長期護(hù)理保險(xiǎn)而言,資金的籌集是其能否正常運(yùn)行的重要基礎(chǔ),由于政府、企業(yè)及個(gè)人都可能作為籌資主體,因此第四章利用科學(xué)的統(tǒng)計(jì)模型來分析政府的籌資能力、企業(yè)繳費(fèi)能力及個(gè)人負(fù)擔(dān)能力,結(jié)果表明企業(yè)由于負(fù)擔(dān)過重暫不考慮,可以考慮政府和個(gè)人作為主要籌資主體。最后本文提出了浙江省社會(huì)長期護(hù)理保險(xiǎn)制度的設(shè)想思路,并提出可行性建議。
[Abstract]:According to the general standard of the United Nations, 60 years of age and older population more than the proportion of the total population of more than 10%, is defined as entering into the aging society. In 2000, 60 years of age and older population in China accounted for more than 10.2% of the total population, means that China has entered the aging society in 2000. Zhejiang as early as 1987, 60 years of age and older population more than the proportion of the total population of more than 10%, marking the Zhejiang province entered the aging society. By the end of 2015, Zhejiang Province, at the age of 60 years of age and older population has reached 9 million 850 thousand people, the proportion of the total number of 20.2%. which, in old age at the age of 80 and more than 1 million 558 thousand people, accounting for 15.84% of the proportion of the elderly population, the rate of population aging and the aging rate were higher than the national average, means that in Zhejiang Province, the degree of population aging has been quite serious. Zhejiang province is currently disabled and half The number of disabled elderly 695 thousand and 500 people, accounting for the proportion of elderly population is 7.07%. with the increase of age, the degradation of physical function of the elderly, suffering from various diseases, disability, disability probability decreased gradually increased, making the elderly self-care ability, followed by people will be greatly increased for the long-term care needs of the elderly. At the same time. Because of our long before the implementation of the family planning policy, leading to China's household size is more and more small, the "inverted Pyramid family structure 4-2-1" increasing. As the third generation to support the above six people, and with life and work pressure makes people unable to take care of the elderly; in addition, with the economy the development of cross regional floating population migration and employment increase greatly, resulting in empty nest families is increasing. These old people are not only lack of economic security and daily life as The material of care, but also prone to mental illness. The family size is more and more small, "4-2-1" inverted Pyramid family structure and empty nest families continue to appear, let the family pension function gradually weakened, when elderly people need long-term care services, family pattern is now difficult to bear. The problem of population aging has hindered the social and economic development, a serious impact on the social security system. Although the social medical insurance system at the higher rate, but lower the level of protection, the lack of long-term care services. To establish long-term care insurance system in our country is imperative, however, because of China's economic development in various regions and different cultural imbalance problems in the short term, hope to build a unified national long-term care insurance system is not possible, the need to design the corresponding term according to the practical situation in different regions The nursing insurance system. The contents of this paper are as follows: first, a theoretical analysis of long term care insurance, mainly through the comparative analysis of the financing mode of long-term care insurance at home and abroad, proposed the establishment of social insurance model of long term care insurance system in Zhejiang province. In second, the Zhejiang Province Survey and prediction of long term care insurance costs demand described. The current situation of population aging in Zhejiang province and nursing needs, to illustrate the necessity of establishing the long-term care insurance system in Zhejiang province. The population of Zhejiang province long-term care insurance demand situation questionnaire, including health status, family status, the long-term care insurance purchase intention and implementation mode. Using Logit regression model analysis of the main factors to understand the impact of buy long-term care insurance, and predicts the future demand of long-term care costs. Third, evaluation of Zhejiang Long term care insurance related to the subject of Jiang province's financing ability, evaluation of the government using the statistical model, enterprise and individual financing ability, which uses the ARIMA model to predict the government's financing ability, so as to determine the subject of financing feasible long-term care insurance system. Fourth, evaluation results of demand survey and financing ability of long-term care insurance in Zhejiang Province Based on the construction plan the long-term care insurance system in Zhejiang province of the society, and for the development and improvement of long term care insurance system in Zhejiang Province, puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. The survey found that the current Zhejiang province residents demand for long-term care insurance is strong, the vast majority of people want the government to establish long-term care insurance system for the society. Social long-term care insurance, funds the raise is whether the important foundation of the normal operation of the government, enterprises and individuals are likely as the subject of financing, because The fourth chapter uses statistical models to analyze the science of government financing ability, enterprise payment ability and personal burden ability, the results show that enterprise because of heavy burden will not consider, consider the government and individuals as the main subject of financing. Finally this paper proposed ideas of long term care insurance system in Zhejiang province of the society, and puts forward some feasible suggestions.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F842.6

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