本文關(guān)鍵詞： 農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi) 風(fēng)險防范 凝聚力 指標(biāo)體系　出處：《河北師范大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：旱災(zāi)是我國損失和影響最為嚴重的自然災(zāi)害之一。隨著全球氣候變暖,極端天氣頻發(fā),區(qū)域社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展,需水量劇增等壓力的加大,干旱災(zāi)害及其風(fēng)險問題越來越突出,旱災(zāi)有不斷加重的趨勢。減輕區(qū)域農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險,需要集中與旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險防范相關(guān)的各種行動措施,形成凝聚力。有效地減低脆弱性,提高適應(yīng)和應(yīng)對能力,是當(dāng)前和未來綜合減災(zāi)的發(fā)展方向。本文將凝聚力概念引入?yún)^(qū)域農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)綜合風(fēng)險防范研究。通過典型區(qū)域特大旱災(zāi)案例在網(wǎng)絡(luò)發(fā)布的應(yīng)對信息,梳理了旱災(zāi)成因、災(zāi)情、影響、應(yīng)急措施、救助、災(zāi)后恢復(fù)、災(zāi)前/以及下一輪災(zāi)害發(fā)生前所做的備災(zāi)工作。弄清了各種風(fēng)險防范參與主體在旱災(zāi)防災(zāi)減災(zāi)過程中所起的作用,發(fā)現(xiàn)了凝聚力形成的動力來源,根據(jù)分析做出了體現(xiàn)區(qū)域農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)協(xié)同減災(zāi)的案例表。通過分析來自政府部門的統(tǒng)計資料,工作報告或工作進展,獲取農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)營的資源環(huán)境基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù),篩選研究區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)綜合風(fēng)險防范的影響因素。通過實際調(diào)研走訪,了解了農(nóng)戶的旱災(zāi)意識、減災(zāi)意愿、減災(zāi)策略和行動措施對凝聚力形成的重要性。根據(jù)災(zāi)害系統(tǒng)理論,采用綜合分析與主導(dǎo)因素相結(jié)合的思路,按照凝聚力形成的力量來源,利用指標(biāo)篩選以及GIS空間分析等技術(shù)方法,開展了對區(qū)域農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)綜合風(fēng)險防范凝聚力指標(biāo)體系和凝聚力評價方法的構(gòu)建。建立了縣級和村級農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)綜合風(fēng)險防范凝聚力評價的指標(biāo)體系。評價指標(biāo)包括軟硬兩類,其中,軟指標(biāo)涵蓋組織領(lǐng)導(dǎo)、管理調(diào)控、科學(xué)技術(shù)、保險、信息傳播、交流與溝通等方面;硬指標(biāo)主要考核農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)營的孕災(zāi)環(huán)境、水土資源匹配程度,農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)適應(yīng)與應(yīng)對的各種能力等�？h域水平上凝聚力評價指標(biāo)分兩個層次,第一層次,考察應(yīng)對和適應(yīng)區(qū)域旱災(zāi)相關(guān)部門的組織領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力、部門協(xié)同合作力、政策支撐度、孕災(zāi)環(huán)境穩(wěn)定度、資源和工程設(shè)施保障力、財力和糧食供給的滿足度、農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)效率等。第二層次的指標(biāo)分別對第一層次提出的各個維度進行考量。區(qū)域農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)綜合風(fēng)險防范凝聚力指標(biāo)體系考慮了系統(tǒng)內(nèi)外兩種資源和力量。凝聚力的形成和影響因素在不同區(qū)域、不同時段存在差異,有動態(tài)變化的特征。結(jié)合區(qū)域旱災(zāi)案例及邢臺縣實際進行實證分析。分析結(jié)果表明,區(qū)域農(nóng)業(yè)旱災(zāi)綜合風(fēng)險防范凝聚力的形成和提升不僅取決于農(nóng)戶及個人的響應(yīng)方式調(diào)整,而且取決于政府部門領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力和部門、社會團體、企事業(yè)單位之間的高效協(xié)作。長期的旱災(zāi)風(fēng)險防范,需要將農(nóng)業(yè)水資源需求與供給控制到平衡狀態(tài)。為了謀求減災(zāi)與可持續(xù)發(fā)展,旱災(zāi)減災(zāi)需要由應(yīng)急模式轉(zhuǎn)為完整災(zāi)害周期的風(fēng)險防范。
[Abstract]:Drought is one of the most serious natural disasters in China. With the global warming, frequent extreme weather, regional social and economic development, increased water demand and other pressures. Drought disasters and their risks are becoming more and more prominent, drought has a trend of increasing. To mitigate the regional agricultural drought risk, we need to focus on drought risk prevention related to a variety of action measures. Build cohesion... effectively reduce vulnerability and improve adaptation and coping capacity. This paper introduces the concept of cohesion into the study of comprehensive risk prevention of regional agricultural drought. Combing the causes of drought, disaster situation, impact, emergency measures, relief, disaster recovery. The role of various risk prevention participants in the process of drought prevention and mitigation, and the power source of cohesion formation. According to the analysis, the paper makes a case table of regional agricultural drought disaster reduction. Through analyzing the statistical data, work report or progress of work from the government departments, the paper obtains the basic data of resources and environment of agricultural management. Screening the influence factors of comprehensive risk prevention of agricultural drought in the study area. Through the actual investigation and visit, we understand the awareness of drought and the willingness to reduce disaster of farmers. The importance of disaster reduction strategy and action measures to the formation of cohesion. According to the theory of disaster system, combining the comprehensive analysis with the leading factors, according to the strength source of cohesion formation. The methods of index screening and GIS spatial analysis were used. The index system of regional agricultural drought comprehensive risk prevention cohesion index system and cohesive force evaluation method are constructed. The index system of county level and village level agricultural drought comprehensive risk prevention cohesion evaluation is established. The evaluation indexes include:. Hard and soft. Among them, soft index covers organizational leadership, management control, science and technology, insurance, information dissemination, communication and so on; Hard indicators mainly assess the disaster environment of agricultural management, soil and water resources matching degree, agricultural drought adaptation and coping ability, etc. At the county level cohesion evaluation indicators can be divided into two levels, the first level. To investigate the organizational leadership, cooperation, policy support, environmental stability, resource and engineering support, financial resources and food supply satisfaction of drought response and adaptation departments in the region. The index of the second level considers each dimension of the first level separately. The index system of regional agricultural drought comprehensive risk prevention and cohesion takes into account two kinds of resources and strength inside and outside the system. The formation and influence of force are in different regions. According to the case of regional drought and the actual situation of Xingtai county, the analysis results show that there are differences in different periods of time and the characteristics of dynamic change. The formation and promotion of regional agricultural drought comprehensive risk prevention cohesion depends not only on the adjustment of farmers' and individuals' response mode, but also on the leadership of government departments and departments, social groups. The efficient cooperation between enterprises and institutions and the long-term drought risk prevention need to control the demand and supply of agricultural water resources to a balanced state in order to seek disaster reduction and sustainable development. Drought mitigation needs risk prevention from emergency mode to complete disaster cycle.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：S423

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