本文關鍵詞： 空氣污染 產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調整 灰色系統(tǒng) LMDI分解　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟貿易大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：北京市作為首都具有特殊的地位,是全國政治、經(jīng)濟、文化中心,是著名的國際化大都市。北京具有信息、醫(yī)療、教育等公共資源優(yōu)勢,以及大量的就業(yè)機會,極大地吸引外地人口特別是農村人口向中心化城市快速遷移。近年來,首都人口過快增長與北京市資源環(huán)境的矛盾日益凸顯:水資源緊缺;空氣污染嚴重;交通道路擁堵;房價高漲,調控艱難;城市自然環(huán)境和生態(tài)系統(tǒng)受到較大破壞等等。而產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的優(yōu)化升級以及空間上的布局,對能源消耗和帶動人口合理分布都有著重要意義。產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調整的方向就是我們將要研究的課題。本文在對北京市空氣質量和產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的描述性統(tǒng)計分析中發(fā)現(xiàn),空氣質量的變動不僅與產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的能量消費和各行業(yè)比重有密切關聯(lián),還與產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的空間布局有著很高的相似度。因而我們選取2010年到2015年北京市各行業(yè)能源消費量和廢氣排放量數(shù)據(jù),進行灰色系統(tǒng)關聯(lián)度分析,分析結果表明,與廢氣排放量密切相關的行業(yè)多為第三產(chǎn)業(yè)中的行業(yè),與廢氣排放量關聯(lián)度最大的行業(yè)分別是:工業(yè),住宿和餐飲業(yè),生活消費,交通運輸、倉儲和郵政業(yè),房地產(chǎn)和建筑業(yè),電力、熱力的生產(chǎn)和供應業(yè)。GM(1,n)模型結果表明,工業(yè)和生活消費對廢氣排放量有著最大促進作用。隨后我們用LMDI的分解方法對二氧化硫排放的驅動因素進行分解,結果表明,產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調整因素和人口規(guī)模因素是驅動二氧化硫排放的主要因素�；谘芯拷Y果,本文提出了合理調整產(chǎn)業(yè)結構空間布局的宏觀政策,加快第三產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)化調整,加大新能源技術的科研投入,推動技術進步,加快普及使用綠色能源,提高使用效率,控制人口規(guī)模,發(fā)展智能交通,提高公眾環(huán)保意識等建議。
[Abstract]:Beijing has a special status as the capital, is the national political, economic, cultural center, is a famous international metropolis, Beijing has information, health care, education and other public resources advantages, as well as a large number of employment opportunities. In recent years, the contradiction between the rapid growth of the capital population and the resources and environment of Beijing has become increasingly prominent: water resources shortage; Serious air pollution; Traffic congestion; High house prices, difficult control; The urban natural environment and ecosystem are greatly damaged and so on. And the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and spatial layout. It is of great significance to energy consumption and rational distribution of population. The direction of industrial structure adjustment is the subject that we will study. This paper finds out in the descriptive statistical analysis of air quality and industrial structure in Beijing. . The change of air quality is not only closely related to the energy consumption of industrial structure and the proportion of different industries. There is also a high similarity with the spatial layout of the industrial structure. So we select the data of energy consumption and exhaust gas emissions from 2010 to 2015 in Beijing to carry out the grey system correlation analysis. The results show that the industries closely related to the emission of exhaust gas are mostly in the tertiary industry, and the industries with the greatest correlation with the emissions are: industry, accommodation and catering industry, living consumption, transportation. The results of the storage and post industry, real estate and construction, electricity, thermal production and supply industry. Industrial and household consumption have the greatest contribution to emissions. Then we use the decomposition method of LMDI to decompose the drivers of sulfur dioxide emissions, and the results show that. The factors of industrial structure adjustment and population scale are the main factors driving sulfur dioxide emission. Based on the research results, this paper puts forward a macro policy to adjust the spatial distribution of industrial structure reasonably. We will speed up the optimization and adjustment of the tertiary industry, increase investment in scientific research on new energy technologies, promote technological progress, speed up the popularization of the use of green energy, improve the efficiency of use, control the size of the population, and develop intelligent transportation. Raise public awareness of environmental protection and other suggestions.
【學位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟貿易大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X51;F127

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