本文關(guān)鍵詞： 訂單農(nóng)業(yè)供應(yīng)鏈 供應(yīng)數(shù)量和質(zhì)量不確定 龍頭企業(yè)簽約量 期望利潤(rùn)　出處：《昆明理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：訂單農(nóng)業(yè)不僅有效解決了小生產(chǎn)與大市場(chǎng)間的矛盾,而且還確保了企業(yè)以較低的交易費(fèi)用和適宜的價(jià)格獲得穩(wěn)定的原料來源,在我國(guó)得到了普遍推廣。然而,在訂單農(nóng)業(yè)實(shí)際運(yùn)營(yíng)中,頻繁發(fā)生的農(nóng)業(yè)自然災(zāi)害和農(nóng)戶的機(jī)會(huì)主義行為,導(dǎo)致農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的供應(yīng)數(shù)量和質(zhì)量都不確定。不穩(wěn)定的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)使得龍頭企業(yè)的原材料供應(yīng)得不到有效保證,給企業(yè)帶來較大的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失,進(jìn)而影響企業(yè)從事訂單農(nóng)業(yè)的積極性,不利于我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)化的發(fā)展。目前,學(xué)者們對(duì)供應(yīng)不確定下的零售商訂貨策略研究大多只考慮供應(yīng)數(shù)量不確定或質(zhì)量不確定,缺乏同時(shí)考慮供應(yīng)數(shù)量和質(zhì)量都不確定情況。論文針對(duì)“公司+農(nóng)戶”型訂單農(nóng)業(yè)供應(yīng)鏈中農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)數(shù)量和質(zhì)量都不確定問題,從龍頭企業(yè)決策者的視角出發(fā),對(duì)龍頭企業(yè)最佳簽約量問題進(jìn)行研究。首先,論文基于經(jīng)典報(bào)童模型,建立了農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)數(shù)量和供應(yīng)質(zhì)量都不確定下的龍頭企業(yè)簽約量決策模型。模型以龍頭企業(yè)期望利潤(rùn)最大為目標(biāo)函數(shù),以簽約量為決策變量。目標(biāo)函數(shù)考慮了農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的銷售收入、采購(gòu)成本、加工成本、儲(chǔ)存成本、缺貨成本和剩余庫存殘值。其次,根據(jù)模型非線性連續(xù)可微的特點(diǎn),采用二分法對(duì)模型的一階最優(yōu)性條件進(jìn)行求解。再次,結(jié)合云南某龍頭企業(yè)的實(shí)際運(yùn)營(yíng)情況,在分析農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)不確定數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)規(guī)律的基礎(chǔ)上,設(shè)計(jì)算例驗(yàn)證模型和算法的有效性,并進(jìn)行了參數(shù)的靈敏度分析。最后,為了揭示農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)數(shù)量和質(zhì)量不確定對(duì)龍頭企業(yè)簽約量的影響,論文對(duì)供應(yīng)數(shù)量和質(zhì)量都不確定、僅考慮供應(yīng)數(shù)量不確定以及僅考慮供應(yīng)質(zhì)量不確定這三種供應(yīng)情況下的龍頭企業(yè)最佳簽約量、期望利潤(rùn)進(jìn)行了對(duì)比分析。論文的研究得出以下結(jié)論:(1)同時(shí)考慮供應(yīng)數(shù)量和質(zhì)量不確定的龍頭企業(yè)簽約量模型,比只考慮一種供應(yīng)不確定下的簽約量模型能更好地描述龍頭企業(yè)實(shí)際運(yùn)營(yíng)情況;(2)在農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)數(shù)量和質(zhì)量不確定情況下,龍頭企業(yè)與農(nóng)戶的總簽約量大于市場(chǎng)需求分布的期望,且總簽約量隨著農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)率的增加而減小;(3)上等農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的各參數(shù)變化對(duì)簽約量和期望利潤(rùn)的影響比下等農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的各參數(shù)變化對(duì)簽約量和期望利潤(rùn)的影響程度大;(4)最佳簽約量隨著農(nóng)產(chǎn)品需求、單位出售價(jià)格、單位缺貨成本、單位剩余庫存殘值的增加而呈增大的趨勢(shì),隨著農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)率、單位加工成品率、單位采購(gòu)成本、單位加工成本、單位儲(chǔ)存成本的增加而呈減小的趨勢(shì);(5)期望利潤(rùn)隨著農(nóng)產(chǎn)品需求、單位加工成品率、單位出售價(jià)格、單位剩余庫存殘值的增加而呈增大的趨勢(shì),隨著下等農(nóng)產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)率、單位缺貨成本、單位采購(gòu)成本、單位加工成本、單位儲(chǔ)存成本的增加而呈減小的趨勢(shì);(6)對(duì)同一質(zhì)量等級(jí)的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品,其供應(yīng)率、加工成本比其它參數(shù)對(duì)簽約量和期望利潤(rùn)的影響更大。論文的研究彌補(bǔ)了已有對(duì)簽約量相關(guān)研究的不足,有助于龍頭企業(yè)確定最佳簽約量,減少了龍頭企業(yè)的潛在損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn),提高了訂單農(nóng)業(yè)供應(yīng)鏈的穩(wěn)定性,促進(jìn)了農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)化的發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Order agriculture not only effectively solve the contradiction between small production and large market, but also to ensure that the enterprises to obtain a stable source of raw materials with lower transaction costs and reasonable price, has been widespread in our country. However, in the actual operation of agricultural order, the opportunistic behavior of frequent occurrence of natural disasters of agriculture and farmers result, the quantity and quality of agricultural products supply are uncertain. The instability of the agricultural products supply the raw materials of leading enterprises to supply the effective guarantee to bring greater economic losses, thereby affecting the enthusiasm of enterprises engaged in farming, is not conducive to the development of agricultural industrialization in China. At present, the research of retailers ordering policy scholars on supply uncertainty take into account only supply uncertainty or lack of quality uncertainty, considering the quantity and quality of supply uncertainty on paper. "Company + farmer" order agriculture supply chain of agricultural products supply quantity and quality are uncertain problems, starting from the leading enterprise decision-makers perspective, to study the optimal amount of contracted enterprises. Firstly, the classical newsboy model is established based on the agricultural products supply quantity and supply quality of the leading enterprises contract volume decision model. Model of maximum expected profit by leading enterprises as the objective function, the contract amount as the decision variable. The objective function considering the agricultural product sales revenue, purchasing cost, processing cost, storage cost, out of stock cost and surplus inventory value. Secondly, according to the characteristics of the model of nonlinear continuous differentiable and solved by a dichotomy for model order optimality conditions. Thirdly, combined with the actual operation situation of Yunnan some leading enterprises, in the analysis of agricultural products supply uncertainty based on statistical data of the law On the effectiveness of the design examples to validate the model and algorithm, and sensitivity analysis of parameters. Finally, in order to reveal the influence of agricultural products supply quantity and quality uncertainty to the leading enterprises of the signing, the uncertainty of the quantity and quality of supply, supply quantity only considering the uncertainty and only consider the supply of quality uncertainty leading enterprises best signing quantity of the three supply conditions, expected profits are analyzed. This paper draws following conclusions: (1) considering the model contract quantity and quality leading enterprises in uncertain supply, than only considering a supply contract volume under the uncertain model can better describe the actual situation the operation of leading enterprises; (2) in the agricultural products supply quantity and quality of the uncertain circumstances, the total contract amount of leading enterprises and farmers than the distribution of market demand expectations, and the total contract amount with the supply of agricultural products The increase rate should be decreased; (3) effects of various parameters on superior agricultural products signing quantity and expected profit than the changes of the parameters of such agricultural products impact on the contract amount and expected profit level; (4) the optimal contract volume with the demand for agricultural products, unit price, unit shortage cost per unit. Add the remaining inventory residuals were increased, with the supply of agricultural products, the unit processing rate of finished products, the unit purchasing cost, unit cost, unit storage costs increased, decreased; (5) the expected profit with the demand of agricultural products, the unit processing rate of finished products, the unit selling price, increase the remaining units inventory residuals were increased, with lower agricultural supply rate, unit shortage cost, unit cost, unit cost, unit storage costs increased, decreased tendency; (6) on the same quality level of agricultural products The goods supply rate, processing cost more than the other parameters influence on the contract amount and expected profit. This study makes up the shortage of the study on the relevant contract volume has the help of leading enterprises determine the optimal contract volume, reduce the potential risk of loss of leading enterprises, improve the stability of the order of agricultural supply chain. To promote the development of agricultural industrialization.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F324

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