本文關(guān)鍵詞：遼寧省洪水對菌痢影響的定量研究及超額發(fā)病數(shù)的預(yù)估　出處：《山東大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 氣候變化 洪水事件 細菌性痢疾 超額發(fā)病數(shù) 預(yù)估

【摘要】：研究背景洪水已經(jīng)成為全球范圍內(nèi)公認的發(fā)生最為頻繁、造成損失最大的自然災(zāi)害類型之一,約占全球自然災(zāi)害發(fā)生總數(shù)的百分之四十。洪水被認為會增加全球疾病負擔(dān)并會給全球公共衛(wèi)生服務(wù)體系造成持續(xù)的壓力。洪水對人類健康的影響主要包括死亡、傷害、引起災(zāi)后傳染病流行和心理健康等問題,其中洪水引起的災(zāi)后傳染病的流行是主要問題之一。我國地域遼闊,氣候類型分布復(fù)雜,洪水的發(fā)生具有種類多、影響范圍廣、時空分布不均勻、發(fā)生頻率高和造成的損失嚴重的特點。雖然洪水的發(fā)生會嚴重危害災(zāi)區(qū)人群生命安全和健康狀況,但國內(nèi)外定量評價洪水對健康危害的研究相對較少且研究方法比較局限。同時,在聯(lián)合國政府間氣候變化專門委員會的第五次報告中曾指出,由于未來全球海平面上升以及極端降雨事件發(fā)生頻率的升高,全球范圍內(nèi)洪水的發(fā)生頻率以及強度也會隨之加強；有研究指出,在全球氣候變化的大背景下遼寧省洪水的發(fā)生頻率以及強度也將進一步加大。隨著我國經(jīng)濟社會的發(fā)展和城鎮(zhèn)人口數(shù)量的快速增加,我國有越來越多的人口暴露在洪水這一危險因素之下。研究目的本研究以遼寧省2004-2010年作為基準時間段,選定細菌性痢疾為研究的目標疾病,應(yīng)用面板Poisson回歸模型定量評價遼寧省洪水事件對細菌性痢疾發(fā)病的影響；同時,在確定的基準時間段洪水與菌痢定量關(guān)系的基礎(chǔ)上,在一定的假設(shè)條件并考慮未來人口變化的前提下,預(yù)估遼寧省2020、2030、2050、2100年洪水導(dǎo)致的細菌性痢疾的超額發(fā)病數(shù),為遼寧省當(dāng)前及未來時間洪水事件過后菌痢的防治政策和控制措施提供依據(jù)和參考。本研究主要目的包括以下幾點：1.收集整理遼寧省2004-2010年細菌性痢疾月發(fā)病數(shù)據(jù)、氣象數(shù)據(jù)和人口數(shù)據(jù),在控制氣象因素、長期趨勢、季節(jié)效應(yīng)和滯后效應(yīng)等因素的影響下,利用面板Poisson回歸模型定量評價遼寧省洪水事件對細菌性痢疾的影響,為當(dāng)?shù)貫?zāi)后針對該種傳染病的預(yù)防和控制提供依據(jù)。2.利用地理信息系統(tǒng)軟件,整理預(yù)估得到的RCP4.5和RCP8.5情境下2020、2030、2050、2100年日降水的網(wǎng)格數(shù)據(jù),根據(jù)國家科委全國重大自然災(zāi)害綜合研究組有關(guān)洪水的定義,統(tǒng)計遼寧省2020、2030、2050、2100年洪水發(fā)生的具體情況；同時,根據(jù)聯(lián)合國所發(fā)布的中國地區(qū)未來人口自然增長率,以2010年人口數(shù)為基準,預(yù)估得到2020、2030、2050、2100年遼寧省人口數(shù)據(jù)。3.在一定的假設(shè)條件下,預(yù)估未來時間段洪水導(dǎo)致的細菌性痢疾的超額發(fā)病數(shù),為未來時間當(dāng)?shù)卣凸残l(wèi)生機構(gòu)對洪水過后加強針對該種疾病的公共衛(wèi)生投入和準備提供一定啟示和依據(jù)。研究方法本研究利用Spearman相關(guān)分別在滯后0-2月對細菌性痢疾發(fā)病率和研究因素進行相關(guān)性分析,將其中具有統(tǒng)計學(xué)意義且最大的相關(guān)系數(shù)所在的滯后月作為最佳滯后期；在調(diào)整了滯后效應(yīng)、氣象因素、長期趨勢和季節(jié)趨勢等因素的影響后,利用面板Poisson回歸模型定量評價2004-2010年遼寧省洪水事件對細菌性痢疾發(fā)病的影響并計算IRR(Incidence Rate Ratio)及其95%可信區(qū)間；然后采用國家科委全國重大自然災(zāi)害綜合研究組有關(guān)洪水的定義統(tǒng)計得到遼寧省RCP4.5和RCP8.5兩種情景下2020、2030、2050、2100年具體的洪水發(fā)生情況,在一定的假設(shè)并考慮未來人口變化的條件下預(yù)估遼寧省2020、2030、2050、2100年洪水事件致傳染病的超額發(fā)病數(shù)。研究結(jié)果1.Spearman相關(guān)分析結(jié)果顯示,遼寧省洪水事件對細菌性痢疾發(fā)病影響的最佳滯后期為0月,即洪水的發(fā)生對細菌性痢疾發(fā)病的影響不存在滯后效應(yīng)。2.利用面板數(shù)據(jù)模型定量評價洪水事件對細菌性痢疾發(fā)病的影響,結(jié)果顯示,遼寧省洪水事件對細菌性痢疾發(fā)病存在顯著影響,IRR值為1.383(95%CI:1.353-1.414)。同時,模型結(jié)果還表明氣象因素對細菌性痢疾發(fā)病也存在影響,月平均溫度和月平均相對濕度的升高可以使細菌性痢疾發(fā)病的風(fēng)險增加。3.本研究在一定的假設(shè)條件下預(yù)估得到了遼寧省2020、2030、2050、2100年洪水事件致細菌性痢疾的超額發(fā)病數(shù)。結(jié)果顯示,在RCP4.5情景并低生育率情景下遼寧省2020、2030、2050、2100年洪水事件致細菌性痢疾的超額發(fā)病數(shù)分別為1111、355、453、658；中生育率情景下分別為1117、357、455、669；高生育率情景下分別為1131、362、466、694；在RCP8.5情景并低生育率情景下遼寧省2020、2030、2050、2100年洪水事件致細菌性痢疾的超額發(fā)病數(shù)分別為330、1108、616、292；中生育率情景下分別為332、1114、619、296；高生育率情景下分別為336、1127、634、308。研究結(jié)論本研究應(yīng)用面板Poisson回歸模型定量評價遼寧省洪水事件對細菌性痢疾發(fā)病的影響,且在一定的假設(shè)條件并考慮未來人口變化的前提下,預(yù)估遼寧省2020、2030、2050、2100洪水導(dǎo)致的細菌性痢疾的超額發(fā)病數(shù)。結(jié)果表明,遼寧省洪水事件對細菌性痢疾發(fā)病存在顯著影響,洪水事件的發(fā)生可增加災(zāi)區(qū)人群罹患細菌性痢疾的風(fēng)險,定量評價遼寧省洪水事件對細菌性痢疾發(fā)病的影響可為當(dāng)?shù)貫?zāi)后細菌性痢疾的預(yù)防和控制以及災(zāi)后衛(wèi)生資源的分配提供依據(jù)。在RCP4.5情景并低生育率情景下,遼寧省2020、2030、2050、2100年洪水事件致細菌性痢疾的超額發(fā)病數(shù)分別為1111、355、453、658；中生育率情景下分別為1117、357、455、669；高生育率情景下分別為1131、362、466、694；在RCP8.5情景并低生育率情景下,遼寧省2020、2030、2050、2100年洪水事件致細菌性痢疾的超額發(fā)病數(shù)分別為330、1108、616、292；中生育率情景下分別為332、1114、619、296；高生育率情景下分別為336、1127、634、308。未來遼寧省洪水事件的發(fā)生仍會對當(dāng)?shù)厝巳航】翟斐捎绊懖⒔o當(dāng)?shù)氐墓残l(wèi)生服務(wù)帶來一定的壓力,提示當(dāng)?shù)貞?yīng)在洪水發(fā)生后加強對災(zāi)區(qū)細菌性痢疾的監(jiān)測,做好災(zāi)后衛(wèi)生防疫工作,及時為災(zāi)區(qū)群眾提供安全衛(wèi)生的飲用水以及食物；建立基礎(chǔ)衛(wèi)生設(shè)施并保障災(zāi)民日常生活有條不紊的進行,以期盡量減少洪水對人民群眾健康造成的威脅。研究局限性由于月尺度數(shù)據(jù)的局限性可能無法準確估計出洪水對菌痢發(fā)病影響的滯后效應(yīng)；許多其他的因素如不同地區(qū)的社會經(jīng)濟水平未納入到研究當(dāng)中；同時,本研究中的預(yù)估是在一定假設(shè)條件下進行的,這也是本研究的主要局限性之一。
[Abstract]:On the background of the flood has become recognized worldwide occurred most frequently, the loss caused by one of the biggest natural disaster type, accounting for about forty percent of the total global occurrence of natural disasters. The flood is expected to increase in the global burden of disease and may cause sustained pressure to the global public health service system. The flood impact on human health including death damage caused by the disaster, epidemic of infectious diseases and mental health problems, which caused the flood disaster after the epidemic of infectious diseases is one of the main problems. China's vast territory, climate type complex distribution, flooding has many kinds, affecting a wide range, the distribution is not uniform, the occurrence characteristics of high frequency and caused serious damage to the although the occurrence of flood disaster will seriously endanger the safety of life and health of people, but the domestic and foreign research on quantitative evaluation of flood hazard. Compare the limitations of less and research methods. At the same time, in the fifth report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on climate change has pointed out that, due to the increase of future global sea-level rise and extreme precipitation event frequency, the frequency of occurrence of worldwide flood and strength will also strengthen; studies have pointed out that in the background the global climate change in Liaoning Province under the flood frequency and intensity will also further increase. With the rapid increase in the number of China's economic and social development and urban population, more and more people are exposed to the flood risk factors. The study in Liaoning province 2004-2010 years as the benchmark period, the selected bacteria the research target of dysentery disease, using panel Poisson regression model for quantitative evaluation of influence of Liaoning province flood events on the incidence of bacillary dysentery; at the same time, Based on the relationship between the reference time and the quantitative determination of the flood dysentery, in certain conditions and considering the future population changes under the excess incidence prediction of bacillary dysentery caused flood in Liaoning province for 2020203020502100 years, and provides reference for the Liaoning Province, the current and future time after the flood event and dysentery prevention policy control measures. The main purpose of this study include the following: 1. collect the monthly incidence of bacillary dysentery in Liaoning province 2004-2010 data, meteorological data and population data, the long-term trend in the control of meteorological factors, seasonal effect and hysteresis effect of other factors, using the panel Poisson regression model for quantitative evaluation of influence of Liaoning Province on flood events bacterial dysentery, local post disaster for the prevention and control of the infectious diseases and provide the basis for.2. using geographic information system software, pre finishing We assessed RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 under the situation of daily precipitation data grid for 2020203020502100 years, according to the definition of the State Science and Technology Commission national comprehensive research group of major natural disasters of flood, flood situation statistics in Liaoning province for 2020203020502100 years; at the same time, according to United Nations Chinese in the future the natural population growth rate, the 2010 population of reference Liaoning Province, estimated the population data of.3. under certain assumptions for 2020203020502100 years, the incidence of abnormal prediction of bacillary dysentery in the future period of time the flood, the time for the future of local government and public health institutions to strengthen the investment in public health and disease to provide reference and basis for the research method after the floods. Study on the use of Spearman in 0-2 were related to the month lag factors of bacillary dysentery incidence and research Analysis, which has the largest correlation coefficient and statistical significance as the best month lag lag; in the adjustment of the lagged effect of meteorological factors, effects of long-term trends and seasonal trends and other factors, using the panel Poisson regression model for quantitative evaluation of influence of Liaoning province flood event in 2004-2010 on the incidence of bacillary dysentery and calculation IRR (Incidence Rate Ratio) and 95% confidence interval; then in Liaoning province by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 two scenarios of occurrence of floods in the next 2020203020502100 years, the specific definition of statistics of State Science and Technology Commission national comprehensive research group of major natural disasters of flood, under certain assumptions and consider the excess incidence of infectious disease caused by the flood event 2020203020502100 years in Liaoning province prediction of future population changes under the conditions. The results showed that 1.Spearman correlation analysis results, Liaoning province flood. The best lag on the incidence of bacillary dysentery effects for 0 months, is the impact of floods on the incidence of bacillary dysentery has no effect, the lag effect.2. using the panel data model to quantitative evaluation of flood events on the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Liaoning province showed that the flood event has significant impact on the incidence of bacillary dysentery. The value of IRR was 1.383 (95%CI:1.353-1.414). At the same time, the model results show that the meteorological factors had effects on the incidence of bacterial dysentery, average relative humidity monthly average temperature and monthly increase can make the incidence of bacillary dysentery increased risk of the.3. estimate under certain assumptions the excess incidence of flood events in 2020203020502100 years Liaoning Province, caused by bacterial dysentery. The results showed that in the RCP4.5 scenario and low birth rate scenarios of flood events in 2020203020502100 years in Liaoning Province caused by bacterial dysentery The excess incidence was 1111355453658; in the fertility rate scenarios were 1117357455669; high fertility scenarios were 1131362466694; the excess incidence of RCP8.5 in the scene and the low fertility scenario flood event in 2020203020502100 years in Liaoning Province caused by bacterial dysentery respectively in 3301108616292; fertility scenarios were 3321114619296 higher; the fertility rate scenarios respectively for the quantitative evaluation of the impact of Liaoning province flood events on the incidence of bacillary dysentery 3361127634308. research conclusions of this study using panel Poisson regression model, and considering the future population changes under certain assumptions, the excess incidence of bacillary dysentery in Liaoning Province, estimated 2020203020502100 flood. The results showed that in Liaoning provincial flood events have significant influence on the incidence of bacillary dysentery, flood event. The disaster affected population can increase the occurrence of bacillary dysentery risk, quantitative evaluation of the impact of Liaoning province flood events on the incidence of bacillary dysentery can provide basis for the prevention and control of bacterial dysentery and allocation of health resources of local post disaster after disaster. In the RCP4.5 scenario and low fertility scenario, the excess incidence of flood events in 2020203020502100 years Liaoning Province, caused by bacterial dysentery was 1111355453658; in the fertility rate scenarios were 1117357455669; high fertility scenario was 1131362466694; in the RCP8.5 scenario and low fertility scenario, the excess incidence of flood events in 2020203020502100 years in Liaoning Province caused by bacterial dysentery was 3301108616292; in the fertility rate scenarios respectively. 3321114619296; high birth rates were 3361127634308. future scenarios in Liaoning province flood events still occur Impact and bring some pressure to the local public health services to the local population health, suggesting that local monitoring should be strengthened in the disaster stricken areas of bacillary dysentery in the flood occurred, good health and epidemic prevention work after the disaster, in time for the people in the disaster areas to provide safe drinking water to health and food; establish basic health facilities and protection of victims daily life in order to reduce everything in good order and well arranged, caused by the flood of people's health threat. The limitations of the study due to the limitation of the monthly scale data may not accurately estimate the lagged effects of flood on the incidence of bacillary dysentery; many other factors such as social economic level in different regions were not included in the study; at the same time, this study estimated in some conditions are, this is also one of the major limitations of this study.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：R516.4

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8 記者 吳佳s，

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