本文關(guān)鍵詞：河南省土地生產(chǎn)率與土地經(jīng)營規(guī)模關(guān)系的研究　出處：《河南大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 土地生產(chǎn)率 農(nóng)戶土地經(jīng)營面積 逐步回歸分析法 土地適度規(guī)模經(jīng)營

【摘要】：21世紀(jì)以來,隨著科技水平的迅速發(fā)展、人口的不斷增長,對糧食的需求呈現(xiàn)急速上漲的態(tài)勢,然而細碎化、小農(nóng)經(jīng)濟的生產(chǎn)模式嚴重制約了糧食生產(chǎn)水平的提高。在現(xiàn)有耕地的基礎(chǔ)上如何提高糧食產(chǎn)量成為人們越來越關(guān)注的焦點。很多學(xué)者從技術(shù)效率的角度來研究;還有的學(xué)者認為小規(guī)模分散化的經(jīng)營模式是阻礙糧食產(chǎn)量提高的一個主要原因,因此認為土地適度規(guī)模經(jīng)營是提高糧食產(chǎn)量的必然趨勢。但是,隨著土地經(jīng)營面積的擴大,單位面積的糧食產(chǎn)量是否一定會提高呢?土地生產(chǎn)率與土地規(guī)模經(jīng)營面積存在怎樣的關(guān)系呢?土地生產(chǎn)率與土地經(jīng)營規(guī)模的關(guān)系一直是國內(nèi)外學(xué)者研究的焦點之一,在繼著名經(jīng)濟學(xué)家恰亞諾夫、亞馬提亞·森之后,IR關(guān)系被推向農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟研究領(lǐng)域的高潮�；趯鴥�(nèi)外文獻的梳理,國內(nèi)關(guān)于土地生產(chǎn)率與農(nóng)戶土地經(jīng)營面積關(guān)系的研究相對較少,對河南省的土地生產(chǎn)率與土地經(jīng)營面積關(guān)系的研究文獻搜集中,發(fā)現(xiàn)無論是從數(shù)據(jù)還是從計量方法上,都是很不充分的。然而農(nóng)業(yè)的發(fā)展又受到土地質(zhì)量、灌溉條件、天氣等多種因素的影響,不同地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)的生產(chǎn)條件也是不同的,如果用其他地區(qū)的研究結(jié)果做為我省農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展政策的依據(jù),是不科學(xué)的,也是缺少理論依據(jù)的。因此,本文在借鑒大多學(xué)者研究經(jīng)驗的基礎(chǔ)上,利用河南省“百縣千村”的最新調(diào)研數(shù)據(jù),對河南省的土地生產(chǎn)率與土地經(jīng)營規(guī)模的關(guān)系進行探究,從而為河南省農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展和土地規(guī)模經(jīng)營提供理論依據(jù)。本文以柯布—道格拉斯生產(chǎn)函數(shù)為載體,以實地調(diào)查的關(guān)于河南省1100個農(nóng)戶橫截面數(shù)據(jù)為計量分析樣本,借助EVIEWS計量軟件,充分考慮土地質(zhì)量(土壤肥力、土地灌溉條件)、單位面積的中間投入要素(化肥投入、種子投入、農(nóng)藥投入、勞動力投入)、土地塊數(shù)、勞動力受教育程度、有無村干部等10個變量因素,對河南省土地生產(chǎn)率與土地規(guī)模經(jīng)營面積之間的關(guān)系進行逐步回歸分析,找出最優(yōu)解釋變量,最終得出土地生產(chǎn)率與土地經(jīng)營面積的這種逆向關(guān)系(IR)在河南省農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展中是存在的。通過對本文的計量分析,得出的結(jié)論如下:第一,在河南糧食生產(chǎn)中,土地生產(chǎn)率與家庭擁有的土地種植面積之間仍然存在顯著的負相關(guān)關(guān)系。說明河南省農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的規(guī)模仍然很小,小農(nóng)經(jīng)濟的生產(chǎn)方式是制約河南省農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展的重要因素。第二,勞動力對糧食生產(chǎn)的貢獻是顯著的,說明河南省農(nóng)村的剩余勞動力轉(zhuǎn)移已經(jīng)宣告結(jié)束,劉易斯拐點的確已經(jīng)到來。第三,土地碎片化對河南糧食生產(chǎn)的影響是顯著的,減少土地塊數(shù)可以提高糧食產(chǎn)量。第四,種子、化肥、灌溉條件、土壤肥力等土地替代類生產(chǎn)要素對河南糧食生產(chǎn)的影響是顯著的,說明了測土施肥,現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)方式亟需引入。第五,勞動力受教育程度對糧食生產(chǎn)的影響不顯著。說明河南農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)仍然嚴重依賴于傳統(tǒng)耕作方式,現(xiàn)代化轉(zhuǎn)型的壓力很大。第六,家庭成員中是否有村干部對糧食生產(chǎn)的影響不顯著,說明河南省農(nóng)村土地分配政策相對是公平的。針對本文的結(jié)論,提出以下政策建議:1.應(yīng)該鼓勵農(nóng)地流轉(zhuǎn),適當(dāng)擴大農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營的土地面積。2.選種育種對河南糧食生產(chǎn)的影響是顯著的,政府應(yīng)該繼續(xù)加大這方面的投入。3.化肥施用應(yīng)該采取精確測量、結(jié)構(gòu)化微調(diào)的方式提高化肥的利用率。4.加大農(nóng)村水利設(shè)施建設(shè),發(fā)展節(jié)水灌溉技術(shù)。5.繼續(xù)推進土地確權(quán),激勵農(nóng)民積極進行土地改良和土地質(zhì)量提升。6.在積極發(fā)展現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)的基礎(chǔ)上,大力普及農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)教育和現(xiàn)代經(jīng)營管理知識。發(fā)展現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè),提升農(nóng)業(yè)收益的比較利益,吸引優(yōu)質(zhì)勞動力回流農(nóng)村。本文主要從數(shù)據(jù)、計量方法、變量因素以及數(shù)據(jù)的處理等方面進行創(chuàng)新,利用最小二乘法對變量進行多元回歸分析,使我們的計量結(jié)果更加客觀和可靠。但是,由于時間和調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)的限制,本文運用的是橫截面數(shù)據(jù),并沒有對農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展的技術(shù)因素進行分析,因此,在以后的研究中將繼續(xù)對“IR關(guān)系”進行更深入的擴展分析。
[Abstract]:Since twenty-first Century, with the rapid development of science and technology level, the increase of population, the demand for food is rapidly rising trend, but the fragmentation of the production of small-scale peasant economy model seriously restricts the grain production level. How to improve the focus of food production become increasingly concerned on the basis of the existing cultivated land. A lot of scholars to study from the point of view of technical efficiency; some scholars believe that the small scale and decentralized business model is a major obstacle to increasing grain yield, so that the appropriate scale of land management is the inevitable trend of increasing grain yield. However, with the expansion of land area, grain yield per unit area are bound to improve? What is the relationship between land productivity and land scale operation area? The relationship between land productivity and land management scale has been the scholars at home and abroad The focus, after the famous economist Chayanov, Amatiya Sen, IR is pushed to the agricultural economy research climax. The literature review on domestic research on land productivity and land management area is relatively small, the research literature search in Henan province land productivity and land management area of concentration it is found from the data or from the measurement method, are not sufficient. However, the development of agriculture and by land quality, irrigation conditions, weather and other factors, the production conditions of different areas of agriculture is different, if the other area of research results as the basis for policy development of agriculture in our province that is not scientific, but also the lack of theoretical basis. Therefore, this paper on the basis of most scholars research on the experience of Henan Province, using "hundred thousand villages" The latest research data, to explore the relationship between land productivity and land management scale in Henan Province, so as to provide a theoretical basis for the agricultural development of Henan province and the scale management of land. Based on the Cobb Douglas production function as the carrier, with the survey on the cross-sectional data of 1100 farmers in Henan Province as samples by means of quantitative analysis. EVIEWS measurement software, considering the quality of the land (soil fertility, land irrigation), the middle unit area inputs (fertilizer, seed, pesticide input, labor input), pieces of land, labor education, there is no village cadres and other 10 variables, the stepwise regression Analysis on the relationship between Henan province land productivity and land scale management area, to find the optimal variables. Finally the inverse relationship between land productivity and land management area (IR) in Henan Province Is there in the agricultural development. Through the measurement of the analysis, the conclusions are as follows: first, grain production in Henan, there is still a significant negative correlation between land productivity and family owned land acreage. Agricultural production in Henan Province, the scale is still small, the production of small-scale peasant economy is an important way the factors restricting the development of agriculture in Henan province. Second, labor contribution to grain production is significant, that has been declared the end of the transfer of surplus labor force in rural areas of Henan Province, Lewis turning point has arrived. Third indeed, land fragmentation effects on grain production in Henan is significantly reduced, pieces of land can increase the grain output. Fourth. Seed, fertilizer, irrigation, soil fertility and land replacement production factors influence on grain production in Henan is significant, the fertilization of modern agricultural production. It is urgent to introduce way. Fifth, the influence of labor education on food production is not significant. The agricultural production in Henan is still heavily dependent on traditional farming methods, the modern transformation of the great pressure. Sixth, whether family members in the village cadres impact on food production was not significant, indicating that the policy of rural land distribution in Henan province is relatively fair. According to the conclusion of this paper, put forward the following policy recommendations: 1. should encourage rural land circulation, expand the agricultural production and operation of the land area of Henan.2. selection breeding of grain production is significant, the government should continue to increase investment in this area applying.3. fertilizer should take accurate measurement, structured fine tune the way to improve the utilization rate of chemical fertilizer.4. increase the rural water conservancy facilities, the development of water-saving irrigation technology.5. continue to promote land ownership, land improvement and incentives for farmers to actively carry out land To improve the quality of.6. based on the positive development of modern agriculture, promote agricultural technology education and modern management knowledge. The development of modern agriculture, improve agricultural comparative interest income, to attract high-quality labor in rural areas. This paper mainly from the data, measurement methods, variables and data processing for terms of innovation, using least square method multiple regression analysis on the variables, we make the measurement results more objective and reliable. However, due to the time limit and survey data, this paper uses the cross section data, and no technical factors on agricultural development were analyzed, therefore, the research in the future will expand more in-depth analysis of the "IR" to continue.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：河南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F301.2

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