本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)視角的中國“中等收入陷阱”規(guī)避研究　出處：《哈爾濱商業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：中等收入陷阱描述的是這樣一種經(jīng)濟(jì)狀態(tài),當(dāng)?shù)褪杖雵彝黄频褪杖脒_(dá)到中等收入水平后,由于不能順利實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式的轉(zhuǎn)變或受外部沖擊,導(dǎo)致持續(xù)增長動力不足和快速發(fā)展中積累的社會矛盾集中爆發(fā),從而出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長回落或長期停滯。目前中國正值經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的關(guān)鍵時(shí)期,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)自改革開放后高速增長,同時(shí)引發(fā)社會、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展問題日益凸顯,并相互交織、相互作用,在很大程度上增加中國落入中等收入陷阱的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),能否解決經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)失衡問題是中國規(guī)避中等收入陷阱的關(guān)鍵所在。全文以總結(jié)國內(nèi)外關(guān)于中等收入陷阱的研究文獻(xiàn)為基礎(chǔ),分析中等收入陷阱的實(shí)質(zhì)與特征,采用文獻(xiàn)分析法、系統(tǒng)分析法、實(shí)證分析法,將比較分析與歸納演繹相結(jié)合、定性分析與定量分析相結(jié)合,并根據(jù)廣義經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的定義,具體從需求結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、城鄉(xiāng)結(jié)構(gòu)、收入分配結(jié)構(gòu)四個(gè)層次研究中國規(guī)避中等收入陷阱的問題。結(jié)合中國經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)狀,分析中國規(guī)避中等收入陷阱在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、金融、人口、公共服務(wù)、國際競爭等方面的制約因素,認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)失衡使居民消費(fèi)率低下、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)難以升級、城鎮(zhèn)化滯后、收入差距過大等問題并發(fā)是致使上述制約因素的主要原因。對此進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,首先利用國際宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)建立面板數(shù)據(jù)模型分析在不同的收入水平下經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的動力機(jī)制,其次建立多元回歸模型分析中國經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)與收入水平的計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系。并歸納巴西和馬來西亞落入中等收入陷阱的失敗教訓(xùn),以及日本和韓國跨越中等收入陷阱的成功經(jīng)驗(yàn),從國際經(jīng)驗(yàn)分析對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的啟示。通過分析可知,在不同的收入狀態(tài)下經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的動力機(jī)制可知,各個(gè)要素在不同的收入水平經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用各不相同,上一階段的動力機(jī)制并不適用于下一階段,規(guī)避中等收入陷阱需適時(shí)調(diào)整經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)。中國居民消費(fèi)率與城鎮(zhèn)化水平對人均GDP的影響并不顯著,基尼系數(shù)與人均GDP呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)是拉動中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)鍵。最后,以經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)為視角,根據(jù)上述研究結(jié)果提出中國規(guī)避中等收入陷阱的建議。
[Abstract]:The middle-income trap describes an economic situation in which low-income countries fail to realize the transformation of their economic development patterns or are subject to external shocks when they break through the low income level and reach the middle-income level. This has led to a concentrated outbreak of social contradictions accumulated in the course of sustained growth and accumulation in rapid development, resulting in a decline in economic growth or long-term stagnation. At present, China is in a critical period of economic restructuring. The rapid growth of China's economy since the reform and opening up, at the same time triggered the social and economic development problems increasingly prominent, and intertwined, interaction, to a large extent increase the risk of China falling into the middle-income trap. Whether we can solve the imbalance of economic structure is the key for China to avoid the middle-income trap. This paper analyzes the essence and characteristics of the middle-income trap on the basis of summarizing the domestic and foreign research literature on the middle-income trap. Literature analysis, system analysis, empirical analysis, comparative analysis and inductive deduction, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis combined, and according to the definition of the generalized economic structure, the specific structure of demand. Industrial structure, urban and rural structure, income distribution structure four levels of research on China to avoid middle-income trap. Combined with the current situation of China's economic structure, analysis of China to avoid middle-income trap in economic growth, finance. Population, public services, international competition and other constraints, the economic structure of the imbalance caused by the low consumption rate of residents, industrial structure is difficult to upgrade, urbanization lags behind. The problem of excessive income gap is the main reason for the above factors. Firstly, the panel data model is established by using international macroeconomic data to analyze the dynamic mechanism of economic structure on economic growth under different income levels. Secondly, we establish a multivariate regression model to analyze the econometric relationship between Chinese economic structure and income level, and conclude the failure lessons of Brazil and Malaysia falling into the middle-income trap. As well as Japan and South Korea's successful experience of crossing the middle-income trap, from the international experience analysis of China's economic development enlightenment. Under different income state, the dynamic mechanism of economic structure to economic growth can be known, each element in different income level economic structure to economic growth function is different. The motive mechanism of the previous stage is not suitable for the next stage. To avoid the middle-income trap, it is necessary to adjust the economic structure at the right time. The influence of the consumption rate and urbanization level of Chinese residents on GDP per capita is not significant. Gini coefficient has a negative correlation with per capita GDP. Adjusting the industrial structure is the key to stimulate China's economic growth. Finally, from the perspective of economic structure. According to the above research results, China proposes to avoid the middle-income trap.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱商業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F124.7

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