本文關(guān)鍵詞：中長(zhǎng)期負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)的計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)與系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)組合模型，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

中長(zhǎng)期負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)的計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)與系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)組合模型

A Model Integrating Econometric Approach With System Dynamics for Long-Term Load Forecasting

[1] [2] [3] [4] [5]

TAN Zhongfu, ZHANG Jinliang, WU Liangqi, DING Yawei, SONG Yihang （1. Institute of Electric Power Economics, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 1

[1]華北電力大學(xué)電力經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所,北京市昌平區(qū)102206; [2]河南洛陽(yáng)供電公司,河南省洛陽(yáng)市471009

文章摘要：電力系統(tǒng)中的長(zhǎng)期負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)受政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)、人口、氣候等各種隨機(jī)因素的影響，單一的預(yù)測(cè)方法很難提高預(yù)測(cè)精度。為此，提出一種基于計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的組合方法。首先，利用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的方法找出電力需求的主要影響因素，在此基礎(chǔ)上建立電力需求與其影響因子的計(jì)量方程；其次，建立考慮人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)及環(huán)境的可持續(xù)發(fā)展的系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)電力需求預(yù)測(cè)模型；最后將人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)、電力需求的子系統(tǒng)方程帶入系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。實(shí)際算例結(jié)果表明該方法具有較高的預(yù)測(cè)精度。

Abstr：The medium- and long-term load prediction of power system are influenced by enchancement factor such as politics, economy, population and climate, therefore practical experiences show that it is hard to improve prediction accuracy by single forecasting model. For this reason, the authors propose a combined forecasting method based on econometrics and system dynamics. Firstly, using econometric approach the main factors influencing power demand are found, on this basis the econometric equations are established for power demand and its impacting factors; then, a system dynamics-based power demand forecasting model, in which the population as well as sustainable development of economy and environment are taken into account, is built; finally, the subsystem equations related to population, economy and power demand are put into the system dynamics-based model to carry out load forecasting. Forecasting results show that the proposed method can improve prediction accuracy.

文章關(guān)鍵詞：

Keyword：:econometrics system dynamics load forecasting sustainable development

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課題項(xiàng)目：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目（71071053）.

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：中長(zhǎng)期負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)的計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)與系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)組合模型，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。