【摘要】：“茶馬古道”以茶馬互市而生,興于唐宋,盛于明清。沿線有隨地理環(huán)境變化而產(chǎn)生的豐富自然景觀和大量民族特色的文化遺存。然而,目前面臨著地震、水土流失、病蟲(chóng)害、茶園面積減少、道路密度過(guò)高等自然人文雙重風(fēng)險(xiǎn),使得茶馬古道的生態(tài)、文化受到嚴(yán)重?fù)p失。文本以普洱“茶馬古道”為研究對(duì)象,結(jié)合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)理論和茶馬古道歷史文化背景,探討了茶馬古道生態(tài)文化綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型構(gòu)建的方法。研究?jī)?nèi)容和主要結(jié)論如下：(1)區(qū)域綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率的空間分布。選取影響茶馬古道風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的自然風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源：海拔、地震、干旱、洪澇、水土流失、病蟲(chóng)害、滑坡泥石流；與人文風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源：耕地面積增率、茶園面積減少、非物質(zhì)遺產(chǎn)文化、物質(zhì)遺產(chǎn)文化、道路密度、古鎮(zhèn)面積比、化肥使用、林地減少等作為主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源,通過(guò)計(jì)算分析得到區(qū)域的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率,得出綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率在區(qū)域內(nèi)中間高,東西低的總體格局。(2)區(qū)域生態(tài)損失值的空間分異：通過(guò)景觀優(yōu)勢(shì)度指數(shù)、景觀結(jié)構(gòu)指數(shù)、景觀破碎度指數(shù)、景觀分離度指數(shù)、景觀脆弱度指數(shù)以及景觀損失指數(shù)這六種景觀格局指數(shù)來(lái)度量。得出高損失度區(qū)主要位于思茅區(qū)中西部、瀾滄東部和江城南部地區(qū),低損失度區(qū)主要位于景谷中部、鎮(zhèn)沅部分地區(qū)和景東大部分地區(qū)。(3)生態(tài)文化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值的空間分異：通過(guò)擬合綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率和生態(tài)損失度值得出高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)位于思茅、寧洱地區(qū),低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)位于孟連、瀾滄、江城、鎮(zhèn)沅、景谷區(qū)域；利用地理加權(quán)回歸模型分析得到不同地理位置主要受到的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源影響的分析結(jié)果：物質(zhì)遺產(chǎn)因子的影響范圍最大,主要影響中部和南部大部地區(qū)；地震的影響范圍位于西部和北部,其它風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因子的影響力面積低于10%,在區(qū)域各處均有分布。在普洱茶馬古道生態(tài)文化綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的研究上,基于自然與文化雙重因子的分析,采用區(qū)域生態(tài)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型與地理加權(quán)模型的結(jié)合,使得研究結(jié)果與現(xiàn)狀有較高的擬合度,在方法上完善了現(xiàn)有的生態(tài)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)研究,并為今后“茶馬古道”的保護(hù)、相關(guān)法律的制定提供依據(jù)和指導(dǎo)作用。
[Abstract]:The Ancient Road of Tea and Horse was born with tea and horse exchange, flourished in Tang and Song dynasties, and flourished in Ming and Qing dynasties. Along the route, there are rich natural landscape and a large number of cultural relics with national characteristics with the change of geographical environment. However, at present, it is facing the double risks of nature and humanities, such as earthquake, soil erosion, pests and diseases, the reduction of tea garden area and the high road density, which makes the ecology and culture of tea horse ancient road suffer serious loss. Taking Pu'er 's "Tea Horse Road" as the research object, combined with the risk assessment theory and the historical and cultural background of Tea Horse Road, this paper discusses the method of constructing the comprehensive risk assessment model of Tea Horse Ancient Road Ecological Culture. The research contents and main conclusions are as follows: (1) the spatial distribution of regional comprehensive risk probability. Select the natural risk sources that affect the risk of tea and horse ancient road: altitude, earthquake, drought, flood, soil and water loss, diseases and insect pests, landslide and debris flow; And human risk sources: cultivated land area increase rate, tea garden area reduction, intangible heritage culture, road density, ancient town area ratio, chemical fertilizer use, forest land reduction as the main risk sources, Through calculation and analysis, the comprehensive risk probability of the region is obtained, and the overall pattern of the comprehensive risk probability is high in the middle of the region and low in the east and west. (2) Spatial differentiation of regional ecological loss value: through landscape dominance index, landscape structure index, Landscape fragmentation index, landscape separation index, landscape vulnerability index and landscape loss index were measured. It is concluded that the high loss degree area is mainly located in the central and western parts of Simao District, the east of Lancang and the southern part of Jiangcheng, and the low loss degree area is mainly located in the middle of Jinggu. Some areas of Zhenyuan and most areas of Jingdong. (3) Spatial differentiation of ecological and cultural risk values: by fitting the comprehensive risk probability and ecological loss degree, the high risk area is located in Simao, Ninger area, and the low risk area is located in Menglian and Lanchang. Jiangcheng, Zhenyuan, Jinggu area; The analysis results of the main risk sources affected by different geographical locations are obtained by using the geographical weighted regression model: the influence range of material heritage factors is the largest, mainly affecting most of the central and southern regions; The influence range of the earthquake is located in the west and north, and the influence area of other risk factors is less than 10%, which is distributed all over the region. Based on the analysis of the dual factors of nature and culture, the combination of regional ecological risk assessment model and geographical weighted model is adopted in the study of the comprehensive risk of ecological culture in Pu'er Tea Ma Dao, which makes the research results have a high degree of fit with the present situation. In the method, the existing ecological risk assessment research is improved, and the basis and guidance for the protection of "Tea Horse Road" and the formulation of relevant laws in the future are provided.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：TU984.18

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