基于案例推理的城市洪澇災(zāi)害應(yīng)急方案生成方法研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-21 12:00
【摘要】：由于全球氣候異常、生態(tài)環(huán)境破壞、人類活動等原因,洪澇災(zāi)害成為人類面臨的重大威脅。隨著我國城市化進程不斷加深,城市洪澇致災(zāi)模式已經(jīng)并將繼續(xù)發(fā)生變化,同時,現(xiàn)代城市面對暴雨洪水顯得更為脆弱。因此,在城市洪澇災(zāi)害發(fā)生之初如何選擇適當(dāng)?shù)膽?yīng)對方案并及時加以實施,是有效減輕災(zāi)害損失的重要途徑。對城市洪澇災(zāi)害應(yīng)急方案生成方法的相關(guān)問題進行研究是城市安全領(lǐng)域的熱點問題,對我國以后的城市洪澇災(zāi)害應(yīng)急決策具有很強的實踐指導(dǎo)作用。缺乏系統(tǒng)完善的應(yīng)急領(lǐng)域知識、決策時間短、決策信息缺失等往往是城市洪澇災(zāi)害應(yīng)急決策者常面臨的難題。應(yīng)急預(yù)案一直被視為是應(yīng)對城市洪澇災(zāi)害的有力武器,但應(yīng)急預(yù)案具有獲取途徑困難、實際操作性欠佳和修改周期較長等問題。因此本文將案例推理技術(shù)引入城市洪澇災(zāi)害的應(yīng)急決策領(lǐng)域,用以往的應(yīng)急案例實施方案進行修正后代替應(yīng)急預(yù)案,快速生成方案。案例推理方法不僅可以實現(xiàn)救援措施的具體化、解決應(yīng)急決策信息部分缺失問題,而且該案例推理系統(tǒng)能不斷更新加入新案例,刪除無用舊案例,更新完善進度比應(yīng)急預(yù)案快速有效許多。本文以案例推理的四個環(huán)節(jié)為主線,首先在對城市洪災(zāi)形成原理進行深入剖析,概括洪澇災(zāi)害影響因素的基礎(chǔ)上,選取框架表示法來對應(yīng)急案例的問題域、解決方案域和應(yīng)急效果域三大方面內(nèi)容進行表示,并構(gòu)建城市洪澇災(zāi)害的案例屬性體系;然后針對城市洪澇災(zāi)害存在的屬性值缺失、屬性值不確定和屬性間復(fù)雜關(guān)系對計算案例相似度所造成的影響問題,給出一種新的基于歸納索引法和RIMER方法的綜合索引技術(shù),并詳細闡述了其在城市洪澇災(zāi)害中的應(yīng)用求解過程,進一步地,在案例檢索過程中還考慮了應(yīng)急方案的實施效果,運用證據(jù)推理方法進行兩次證據(jù)合成來進行效果評估,使檢索結(jié)果更具合理性和準確性;接著研究了案例推理方法中案例修正及案例學(xué)習(xí)等在應(yīng)急方案生成過程中的實現(xiàn)方式。最后給出了一種基于CBR的城市洪澇災(zāi)害應(yīng)急方案生成方法基本框架。
[Abstract]:As a result of global climate anomaly, ecological environment damage, human activities and other reasons, flood disaster has become a major threat to mankind. With the deepening of urbanization in China, urban flood disaster pattern has changed and will continue to change. Meanwhile, modern cities are more vulnerable to torrential rain and flood. Therefore, it is an important way to reduce the loss of urban flood disaster by choosing the appropriate plan and implementing it in time at the beginning of the flood disaster. It is a hot issue in the field of urban safety to study the generation method of urban flood disaster emergency plan, which has a strong practical guidance role in the future urban flood disaster emergency decision-making in China. Lack of systematic knowledge of emergency response field, short decision-making time and lack of decision-making information are often difficult problems faced by urban flood emergency decision makers. The emergency plan has been regarded as a powerful weapon to deal with urban flood disaster, but the emergency plan has many problems, such as difficult way to obtain, poor practical operation and long period of modification. In this paper, the case-based reasoning technology is introduced into the emergency decision-making field of urban flood disaster, and the former emergency case implementation scheme is modified to replace the emergency plan, and the scheme is quickly generated. Case-based reasoning (CBR) can not only realize the embodiment of rescue measures and solve the problem of missing part of emergency decision information, but also can update and add new cases and delete useless old cases. The update and improvement schedule is much faster and more effective than the emergency plan. In this paper, the four links of case-based reasoning are taken as the main line. Firstly, on the basis of deeply analyzing the formation principle of urban flood disaster and summarizing the influencing factors of flood disaster, the frame representation method is selected to solve the problem domain of emergency cases. The solution domain and emergency effect area are represented, and the case attribute system of urban flood disaster is constructed, and then the attribute value of urban flood disaster is missing. This paper presents a new comprehensive indexing technique based on inductive index method and RIMER method. Furthermore, in the process of case retrieval, the effect of emergency plan is considered, and the effect is evaluated by using the method of evidence reasoning twice. The retrieval results are more reasonable and accurate. Then, the implementation of case correction and case learning in the process of emergency scheme generation is studied. Finally, a basic framework of urban flood emergency scheme generation based on CBR is presented.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TU998.4
[Abstract]:As a result of global climate anomaly, ecological environment damage, human activities and other reasons, flood disaster has become a major threat to mankind. With the deepening of urbanization in China, urban flood disaster pattern has changed and will continue to change. Meanwhile, modern cities are more vulnerable to torrential rain and flood. Therefore, it is an important way to reduce the loss of urban flood disaster by choosing the appropriate plan and implementing it in time at the beginning of the flood disaster. It is a hot issue in the field of urban safety to study the generation method of urban flood disaster emergency plan, which has a strong practical guidance role in the future urban flood disaster emergency decision-making in China. Lack of systematic knowledge of emergency response field, short decision-making time and lack of decision-making information are often difficult problems faced by urban flood emergency decision makers. The emergency plan has been regarded as a powerful weapon to deal with urban flood disaster, but the emergency plan has many problems, such as difficult way to obtain, poor practical operation and long period of modification. In this paper, the case-based reasoning technology is introduced into the emergency decision-making field of urban flood disaster, and the former emergency case implementation scheme is modified to replace the emergency plan, and the scheme is quickly generated. Case-based reasoning (CBR) can not only realize the embodiment of rescue measures and solve the problem of missing part of emergency decision information, but also can update and add new cases and delete useless old cases. The update and improvement schedule is much faster and more effective than the emergency plan. In this paper, the four links of case-based reasoning are taken as the main line. Firstly, on the basis of deeply analyzing the formation principle of urban flood disaster and summarizing the influencing factors of flood disaster, the frame representation method is selected to solve the problem domain of emergency cases. The solution domain and emergency effect area are represented, and the case attribute system of urban flood disaster is constructed, and then the attribute value of urban flood disaster is missing. This paper presents a new comprehensive indexing technique based on inductive index method and RIMER method. Furthermore, in the process of case retrieval, the effect of emergency plan is considered, and the effect is evaluated by using the method of evidence reasoning twice. The retrieval results are more reasonable and accurate. Then, the implementation of case correction and case learning in the process of emergency scheme generation is studied. Finally, a basic framework of urban flood emergency scheme generation based on CBR is presented.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TU998.4
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