【摘要】：工程建設具有的動態(tài)工作環(huán)境、勞動密集型、使用重型設備、項目臨時性等特點決定了其與其他行業(yè)相比較有更大的安全隱患,導致工程建設安全事故頻發(fā)并且后果嚴重,因此需要建立工程建設安全風險分析模型并提出安全事故的預防措施。工程建設包含不同范疇的眾多安全風險因素,這些風險因素一般可歸為社會和技術兩個層面,且它們之間相互關聯,因此需要從系統(tǒng)的角度分析復雜的社會-技術系統(tǒng)。傳統(tǒng)的風險分析方法缺乏系統(tǒng)的視角或從系統(tǒng)的角度分析但沒有充分考慮這些風險因素之間的耦合作用,導致分析的結果偏離實際情況而不能指導安全風險的管理。本文綜合考慮工程建設的系統(tǒng)性和耦合性,針對工程建設全過程建立工程建設安全風險分析模型,認識系統(tǒng)安全的演化規(guī)律,預防和控制安全事故的發(fā)生。首先,介紹耦合相關概念,分析工程建設系統(tǒng)的耦合特點,并結合安全事故案例分析工程安全事故的類型和分布特征及相應的安全風險因素,提出本文的研究路線,將研究的問題結合工程建設子系統(tǒng)進行分類處理,即一類安全事故類型與工程建設組織子系統(tǒng)相關,另一類安全事故與工程建設組織系統(tǒng)和物理系統(tǒng)相關。其次,為了分析工程建設系統(tǒng)在風險因素耦合作用下安全狀態(tài)的演化規(guī)律,本文基于歷史風險分析理論,分別建立工程建設組織子系統(tǒng)和物理子系統(tǒng)安全風險分析模型,并說明兩個子系統(tǒng)分別基于決策基準和安全風險的演化,以及決策基準和安全風險耦合產生的非線性作用效果,兩個子系統(tǒng)通過安全風險傳遞和反饋構成工程建設安全風險系統(tǒng)。再次,為了說明上述構建的工程建設安全風險系統(tǒng)概念模型的有效性,本文以湘湖地鐵基坑建設為案例,基于前述理論基礎分析湘湖基坑組織系統(tǒng)的在決策基準耦合作用下產生的風險因素,在風險因素進一步耦合作用下改變物理系統(tǒng)的屬性,系統(tǒng)安全狀態(tài)(支護結構位移)發(fā)生非線性變化。
[Abstract]:The characteristics of dynamic working environment, labor-intensive, heavy equipment and temporary project determine that engineering construction has more hidden dangers than other industries, resulting in frequent accidents and serious consequences. Therefore, it is necessary to establish the safety risk analysis model of engineering construction and put forward the preventive measures of safety accidents. Engineering construction includes many safety risk factors in different categories. These risk factors can generally be classified as two levels of society and technology, and they are related to each other. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze complex social-technological systems from the point of view of system. The traditional risk analysis method lacks a systematic perspective or analyses from a systematic point of view, but does not fully consider the coupling between these risk factors, which results in the result of analysis deviating from the actual situation and can not guide the management of security risk. Considering the systematicness and coupling of engineering construction, this paper establishes a safety risk analysis model for the whole process of engineering construction, understands the evolution law of system safety, and prevents and controls the occurrence of safety accidents. First of all, the concept of coupling is introduced, the coupling characteristics of engineering construction system are analyzed, and the types and distribution characteristics of engineering safety accidents and the corresponding safety risk factors are analyzed in combination with safety accident cases, and the research route of this paper is put forward. The problems studied are classified and dealt with by the engineering construction subsystem, that is, one type of safety accident is related to the engineering construction organization subsystem, the other kind of safety accident is related to the engineering construction organization system and the physical system. Secondly, in order to analyze the evolution law of the safety state of engineering construction system under the coupling of risk factors, based on the theory of historical risk analysis, this paper establishes the safety risk analysis models of engineering construction organization subsystem and physical subsystem, respectively. The results show that the two subsystems are based on the evolution of decision-making benchmark and security risk, and the nonlinear effect of the coupling of decision-making benchmark and security risk. The two subsystems constitute the engineering construction safety risk system through the safety risk transmission and feedback. Thirdly, in order to illustrate the validity of the above conceptual model of safety risk system, this paper takes the foundation pit construction of Xianghu metro as a case study. Based on the above theory, this paper analyzes the risk factors of the Xianghu foundation pit organization system under the coupling of decision-making datum, and changes the attributes of the physical system under the further coupling of the risk factors. The safety state of the system (displacement of supporting structure) changes nonlinear.
【學位授予單位】：華中科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TU714

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