本文選題：城市埋地燃?xì)夤芫� + 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)��； 參考：《首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：城市燃?xì)夤芫�是城市重要的公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,城市的生命線之一,因其所輸送的物質(zhì)具有易燃、易爆、有毒的特殊危險(xiǎn)性,其安全問題不容忽視。有效的城市埋地燃?xì)夤芫�風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)能夠減少和預(yù)防城市埋地燃?xì)夤芫�泄漏事故的發(fā)生,保障城市運(yùn)行安全。論文主要是基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型對(duì)城市埋地燃?xì)夤芫�的泄漏失效可能性的評(píng)價(jià)。在對(duì)國內(nèi)外燃?xì)夤芫�事故統(tǒng)計(jì)分析和城市埋地燃?xì)夤芫�泄漏事故樹分析的基礎(chǔ)上總結(jié)城市埋地燃?xì)夤芫�泄漏事故的主要影響因素,并以管線泄漏失效可能性為評(píng)價(jià)目標(biāo)建立貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,以設(shè)計(jì)與施工因素、腐蝕因素、第三方破壞、自然災(zāi)害為模型的四個(gè)主要方面,具體到三級(jí)父節(jié)點(diǎn);使用noisy—or門確定節(jié)點(diǎn)條件概率,利用貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)具有的強(qiáng)大的處理不確定性問題的能力來合理地綜合專家的不同意見以更新節(jié)點(diǎn)邊緣概率,最后利用構(gòu)建的貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型定量計(jì)算北京市曹慧璐Ch1段埋地燃?xì)夤芫�泄漏失效可能性。采用貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型進(jìn)行城市埋地燃?xì)夤芫�泄漏失效可能性評(píng)價(jià)的關(guān)鍵在于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型的構(gòu)建和專家意見的有效集結(jié)。論文基于國內(nèi)外城市燃?xì)夤芫�泄漏事故統(tǒng)計(jì)分析和事故樹分析,總結(jié)主要影響因素為第三方破壞、老化腐蝕、設(shè)備及操作不當(dāng)、管線本身缺陷、地面沉降、自然因素、人為蓄意破壞、管線間相互影響破壞等,以此為根據(jù)構(gòu)建貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型的結(jié)構(gòu);利用noisy—or門和貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)具有的強(qiáng)大的處理不確定性問題的能力確定節(jié)點(diǎn)條件概率和節(jié)點(diǎn)邊緣概率,完成模型的構(gòu)建;以該模型對(duì)北京市曹慧路Ch1段燃?xì)廨斉涔芏胃g因素影響下泄漏失效可能性進(jìn)行定量評(píng)價(jià),評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果顯示該管段埋地燃?xì)夤芫�泄漏失效可能性概率值約為0.735,參照第7章失效可能性等級(jí)劃分表,該管線對(duì)應(yīng)的泄漏危險(xiǎn)等級(jí)為IV級(jí),對(duì)比評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果表明:利用貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型對(duì)城市埋地燃?xì)夤芫�進(jìn)行泄漏失效可能性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià),能夠?qū)Τ鞘袇^(qū)域內(nèi)的燃?xì)夤芫W(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的安全管理提供有效依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Urban gas pipeline is one of the most important public infrastructure and one of the lifelines of the city. Because of the special danger of flammable explosive and toxic the safety problems can not be ignored. Effective risk assessment of urban buried gas pipeline can reduce and prevent the leakage accident of urban buried gas pipeline and ensure the safety of urban operation. This paper is mainly based on Bayesian network model to evaluate the possibility of leakage failure of urban buried gas pipeline. Based on the statistical analysis of the gas pipeline accidents at home and abroad and the analysis of the gas pipeline leakage tree in the city, the main influencing factors of the gas pipeline leakage accident in the city are summarized. Taking the possibility of pipeline leakage failure as the evaluation goal, the Bayesian network model is established, with design and construction factors, corrosion factors, third party damage and natural disasters as the four main aspects of the model. Noisy-or gate is used to determine the conditional probability of nodes, and the strong ability of Bayesian network structure to deal with uncertain problems is used to reasonably synthesize the different opinions of experts to update the edge probability of nodes. Finally, the probability of leakage failure of buried gas pipeline in Ch1 section of Cao Huilu in Beijing is calculated quantitatively by using the constructed Bayesian network model. The key to evaluate the leakage failure possibility of urban buried gas pipeline by using Bayesian network model lies in the construction of Bayesian network model and the effective assembly of expert opinions. Based on the statistical analysis and accident tree analysis of leakage accidents of urban gas pipelines at home and abroad, the paper summarizes that the main influencing factors are third-party destruction, aging and corrosion, improper equipment and operation, pipeline defects, land subsidence, natural factors, etc. The structure of Bayesian network model is constructed based on artificial deliberate destruction and pipeline interaction failure. Using the powerful ability of noisy-or gate and Bayesian network structure to deal with uncertain problems, the conditional probability and edge probability of nodes are determined, and the model is constructed. Based on the model, the possibility of leakage failure was quantitatively evaluated under the influence of corrosion factors in Ch1 section of Caohui Road, Beijing. The evaluation results show that the probability of leakage failure of the buried gas pipeline is about 0.735. According to Chapter 7, the leakage risk level of the pipeline is grade IV. The comparison and evaluation results show that the risk assessment of leakage failure probability of urban buried gas pipeline based on Bayesian network model can provide an effective basis for the safety management of gas pipeline network system in urban area.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TU996.9

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本文編號(hào)：2005648