本文選題：城市開(kāi)發(fā)邊界 + 空間約束　； 參考：《南京大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：國(guó)家新型城鎮(zhèn)化規(guī)劃明確提出要求劃定城市開(kāi)發(fā)邊界,同時(shí)城市開(kāi)發(fā)邊界的劃定也成為落實(shí)最嚴(yán)格耕地保護(hù)制度、推動(dòng)多規(guī)融合實(shí)施的新任務(wù)。面對(duì)城市無(wú)序蔓延、邊界限制城市擴(kuò)張作用較弱等實(shí)際問(wèn)題,科學(xué)劃定城市開(kāi)發(fā)邊界,對(duì)于統(tǒng)籌安排各類用地、合理布局各類產(chǎn)業(yè)具有指導(dǎo)意義,對(duì)于推動(dòng)新型城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展和多規(guī)融合實(shí)施具有實(shí)踐意義。元胞自動(dòng)機(jī)是進(jìn)行城鎮(zhèn)用地模擬、預(yù)測(cè)的成熟模型,同時(shí)考慮城鎮(zhèn)發(fā)展過(guò)程中受到的空間約束和規(guī)模約束,對(duì)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)CA模型加以改進(jìn),使預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果更加科學(xué)合理。本文以江蘇省金壇市為研究區(qū),首先介紹金壇市城鎮(zhèn)用地空間增長(zhǎng)過(guò)程,并進(jìn)行城鎮(zhèn)用地空間增長(zhǎng)特征分析,在此基礎(chǔ)上通過(guò)變權(quán)法、模糊評(píng)價(jià)法、核主成分分析等方法對(duì)金壇市的絕對(duì)限制性、生態(tài)適宜性和區(qū)位適宜性進(jìn)行分析。其次通過(guò)對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)用地規(guī)模驅(qū)動(dòng)力和制動(dòng)力進(jìn)行分析,并在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型,對(duì)目標(biāo)年城鎮(zhèn)用地規(guī)模進(jìn)行多情景預(yù)測(cè)。最后結(jié)合空間約束和規(guī)模約束,通過(guò)ArcGIS ModelBuilder平臺(tái)構(gòu)建模型進(jìn)行城鎮(zhèn)用地?cái)U(kuò)展模擬和預(yù)測(cè),并考慮現(xiàn)有規(guī)劃的控制邊界,綜合劃定城市開(kāi)發(fā)邊界。本文主要研究?jī)?nèi)容和研究結(jié)論如下:(1)城鎮(zhèn)用地空間增長(zhǎng)與約束分析:首先對(duì)金壇市城鎮(zhèn)用地從增長(zhǎng)過(guò)程、分形維數(shù)、重心偏移、擴(kuò)展強(qiáng)度四方面進(jìn)行分析,確定金壇市城鎮(zhèn)用地發(fā)展趨勢(shì)整體上是向東方向進(jìn)行擴(kuò)展,其次是向南方向進(jìn)行擴(kuò)展,并且擴(kuò)張速度逐步變緩。另外通過(guò)生態(tài)適宜性分析、區(qū)位適宜性分析,確定金壇市適宜性較高的區(qū)域主要集中在金城鎮(zhèn)、經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)發(fā)區(qū)、堯塘鎮(zhèn)附近,其次則分布在各個(gè)鎮(zhèn)區(qū)附近。(2)城鎮(zhèn)用地規(guī)模分析與預(yù)測(cè):首先確定城鎮(zhèn)用地規(guī)模驅(qū)動(dòng)力(城鎮(zhèn)化、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、交通發(fā)展、工業(yè)園區(qū))和制動(dòng)力(生態(tài)安全、耕地保護(hù)、工程項(xiàng)目),然后構(gòu)建系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型并設(shè)置多個(gè)目標(biāo)年情景,通過(guò)對(duì)不同情景預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果進(jìn)行比較,確定金壇市2020年城鎮(zhèn)用地規(guī)模為7395.28公頃。(3)城市開(kāi)發(fā)邊界劃定:首先以2004年城鎮(zhèn)用地作為基礎(chǔ)模擬2012年,并將模擬情況與實(shí)際情況進(jìn)行比較,模擬結(jié)果表明主要是形成城鎮(zhèn)用地的集聚效應(yīng),而對(duì)于部分區(qū)域的跳躍式發(fā)展則難以模擬出來(lái),總體來(lái)說(shuō)模擬精度可以達(dá)到預(yù)期效果。然后以2012年城鎮(zhèn)用地作為基礎(chǔ)模擬2020年,模擬結(jié)果表明對(duì)于中心城區(qū)部分,城鎮(zhèn)用地的集聚效應(yīng)更加明顯,另外對(duì)于堯塘鎮(zhèn)鎮(zhèn)區(qū)部分,則展現(xiàn)出向北擴(kuò)展的趨勢(shì),且該區(qū)域相較于其他鎮(zhèn)區(qū)擴(kuò)展強(qiáng)度更大,這與金壇市當(dāng)前的金城鎮(zhèn)一經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)發(fā)區(qū)一堯塘鎮(zhèn)新組團(tuán)發(fā)展模式相吻合。在預(yù)測(cè)的金壇市2020年城鎮(zhèn)用地布局的基礎(chǔ)上劃定城市開(kāi)發(fā)邊界,并考慮現(xiàn)有規(guī)劃的控制邊界,對(duì)城市開(kāi)發(fā)邊界進(jìn)行修正,綜合確定金壇市城市開(kāi)發(fā)邊界。綜上所述,本文提出了一套城市開(kāi)發(fā)邊界的劃定方法,從空間約束分析、規(guī)模約束分析、城鎮(zhèn)用地模擬與預(yù)測(cè)、城市開(kāi)發(fā)邊界劃定與修正四大方面入手,綜合確定城市開(kāi)發(fā)邊界。其中通過(guò)變權(quán)法、模糊評(píng)價(jià)法、核主成分分析法、系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)等方法,改進(jìn)CA模型中的空間約束和規(guī)模約束部分,使模擬結(jié)果更加科學(xué),使劃定的城市開(kāi)發(fā)邊界更加合理。最后確定的城市開(kāi)發(fā)邊界可以為金壇市未來(lái)城市規(guī)劃、建設(shè)管理提供一定的參考和借鑒。
[Abstract]:The national new urbanization plan clearly puts forward the requirements for the delimitation of the urban development boundary, while the delimit of the urban development boundary is also a new task to implement the most stringent farmland protection system and promote the implementation of multi-disciplinary integration. Facing the unordered spread of the city, the boundary restrictions on urban expansion are weak, and the urban development boundary is scientifically delimited. It is of practical significance to promote the development of new urbanization and the implementation of multi-disciplinary integration. Cellular automata is a mature model for urban land use simulation and prediction, considering the spatial constraints and scale constraints in the process of urban development, and the standard CA model is taken into account. This paper, taking Jintan city of Jiangsu Province as the research area, first introduces the growth process of urban land space in Jintan, and analyses the spatial growth characteristics of urban land use, and on this basis, the absolute restrictive and ecological suitability of Jintan city by means of variable weight method, fuzzy evaluation method and nuclear principal component analysis. And location suitability analysis. Secondly, through the analysis of urban land use scale driving force and system dynamics, and on this basis, the system dynamics model is built to predict the urban land use scale in the target year. Finally, combined with space constraints and scale constraints, the model of urban land use is constructed through the ArcGIS ModelBuilder platform. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows: (1) analysis of urban land space growth and constraint analysis: first of all, the urban land use of Jintan is analyzed from four aspects: growth process, fractal dimension, center of gravity migration and expansion strength, and the determination of Jintan The development trend of urban land use is extended to the East on the whole, followed by the expansion of the south direction, and the expansion rate gradually slows. In addition, through the ecological suitability analysis and location suitability analysis, it is determined that the regions with higher suitability in Jintan are mainly concentrated in Jincheng Town, economic Development Zone, Yao Tang Town, and then distributed in the vicinity of the town of Yao Tong. (2) the scale analysis and prediction of urban land use: first determine the driving force of urban land scale (urbanization, economic development, traffic development, Industrial Park) and the dynamic (ecological security, cultivated land protection, engineering projects), and then construct the system dynamics model and set up multiple target year scenarios, through the different scenarios prediction results. By comparison, the size of urban land use in Jintan in 2020 is 7395.28 hectares. (3) the urban development boundary is delimited. First, the urban land use in 2004 is simulated in 2012, and the simulation results are compared with the actual situation. The simulation results show that the agglomeration effect is mainly formed in the urban land use, and the jump development in some areas is the same. It is difficult to simulate it. In general, the simulation precision can reach the expected effect. Then the urban land use in 2012 is used as the basis to simulate 2020. The simulation results show that the agglomeration effect of urban land is more obvious for the central part of the city, and the trend of the northern expansion of the town area of Yao Tong town is shown, and the region is compared to it. The expansion of his town is more intense, which is in accordance with the new development model of the new group of Yao Tang Town, an economic development zone in Jincheng city of Jintan. The urban development boundary is delimited on the basis of the urban land distribution in the city of Jintan in 2020, and the control boundary of the existing planning is considered, the development boundary of the city is amended and the Jintan city is synthetically determined. In summary, this paper puts forward a set of methods for the delimitation of urban development boundaries. From four aspects: spatial constraints analysis, scale constraint analysis, urban land use simulation and prediction, urban development boundary delimitation and correction, the urban development boundary is synthetically determined. The system dynamics and other methods improve the spatial constraints and scale constraints in the CA model, make the simulation results more scientific and make the delimited urban development boundary more reasonable. The final determination of the urban development boundary can provide some reference and reference for the future urban planning and construction management of Jintan.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TU984.113;P208

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前8條

1 李偉;蘇中友;陳民;;城市開(kāi)發(fā)演進(jìn)管理的決策支持方法[J];系統(tǒng)工程理論與實(shí)踐;2009年03期

2 李娜;;小議城市開(kāi)發(fā)[J];今日科苑;2009年23期

3 陳曉紅;滿強(qiáng);由明遠(yuǎn);姜美芳;肖海豐;周嘉;;城市開(kāi)發(fā)與生態(tài)環(huán)境相互作用過(guò)程研究[J];國(guó)土與自然資源研究;2011年01期

4 ;城市開(kāi)發(fā)在排斥誰(shuí)?[J];世界博覽;2009年24期

5 賈東奇;強(qiáng)連紅;;城市開(kāi)發(fā)和建設(shè)對(duì)自然環(huán)境的影響[J];黑龍江氣象;2009年04期

6 丁小平;;城市中心區(qū)節(jié)地模式的探討——以長(zhǎng)沙市新河三角洲開(kāi)發(fā)新模式為例[J];國(guó)土資源情報(bào);2008年10期

7 寧越敏;新城市化進(jìn)程——90年代中國(guó)城市化動(dòng)力機(jī)制和特點(diǎn)探討[J];地理學(xué)報(bào);1998年05期

8 ;[J];;年期

相關(guān)會(huì)議論文 前7條

1 李偉;蘇中友;陳民;;城市開(kāi)發(fā)演進(jìn)管理的決策支持方法[A];和諧發(fā)展與系統(tǒng)工程——中國(guó)系統(tǒng)工程學(xué)會(huì)第十五屆年會(huì)論文集[C];2008年

2 范潤(rùn)生;;中美城市開(kāi)發(fā)控制機(jī)制的比較[A];中國(guó)城市規(guī)劃學(xué)會(huì)2002年年會(huì)論文集[C];2002年

3 夏南凱;宋海瑜;;大規(guī)模城市開(kāi)發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)初探[A];和諧城市規(guī)劃——2007中國(guó)城市規(guī)劃年會(huì)論文集[C];2007年

4 趙學(xué)彬;夏南凱;;我國(guó)大規(guī)模城市開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目中的社會(huì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)研究[A];轉(zhuǎn)型與重構(gòu)——2011中國(guó)城市規(guī)劃年會(huì)論文集[C];2011年

5 李松梧;王星云;;城市開(kāi)發(fā)怎樣留住原生態(tài)[A];中國(guó)公園協(xié)會(huì)2010年論文集[C];2010年

6 張曉瑞;宗躍光;;城市開(kāi)發(fā)的資源利用效率測(cè)度與評(píng)價(jià)——基于30個(gè)省會(huì)城市的實(shí)證研究[A];2009中國(guó)可持續(xù)發(fā)展論壇暨中國(guó)可持續(xù)發(fā)展研究會(huì)學(xué)術(shù)年會(huì)論文集(下冊(cè))[C];2009年

7 袁奇峰;;和諧社會(huì)背景下的城市開(kāi)發(fā)之困[A];規(guī)劃50年——2006中國(guó)城市規(guī)劃年會(huì)論文集（上冊(cè)）[C];2006年

相關(guān)重要報(bào)紙文章 前10條

1 本報(bào)記者 熊筱偉;城市開(kāi)發(fā)邊界，，該怎么劃？[N];四川日?qǐng)?bào);2014年

2 孫雪東 趙云泰 石義;城市開(kāi)發(fā)邊界怎么劃[N];中國(guó)國(guó)土資源報(bào);2014年

3 楊秀成;城市開(kāi)發(fā)重在做好失地農(nóng)民幫扶工作[N];黔西南日?qǐng)?bào);2008年

4 記者 臧耀紅;千方百計(jì)加快城市開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目建設(shè)[N];菏澤日?qǐng)?bào);2009年

5 徐海江;山東菏澤牡丹區(qū)全力推進(jìn)城市開(kāi)發(fā)[N];中華建筑報(bào);2010年

6 通訊員 王鳳起　任明敏;牡丹區(qū)全力加快城市開(kāi)發(fā)改造步伐[N];菏澤日?qǐng)?bào);2010年

7 國(guó)務(wù)院參事 劉秀晨;超越資源和容量負(fù)荷的城市開(kāi)發(fā)當(dāng)引起高度重視和警惕[N];中華建筑報(bào);2013年

8 姚吉宏 周志光;黎平以路網(wǎng)建設(shè)引領(lǐng)城市開(kāi)發(fā)[N];貴州日?qǐng)?bào);2013年

9 記者 張伯平;解放辦城市開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)展順利[N];渭南日?qǐng)?bào);2008年

10 記者 董世梅;內(nèi)江簽約50億元城市開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目[N];四川日?qǐng)?bào);2010年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前8條

1 闞慧;水環(huán)境約束下的無(wú)錫市區(qū)城市開(kāi)發(fā)邊界劃定研究[D];南京大學(xué);2016年

2 馬會(huì)寧;“多規(guī)合一”下城市開(kāi)發(fā)邊界模擬系統(tǒng)開(kāi)發(fā)與應(yīng)用研究[D];河南農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué);2016年

3 張盧奔;空間—規(guī)模約束下的城市開(kāi)發(fā)邊界劃定研究[D];南京大學(xué);2015年

4 劉馨蔚;大規(guī)模城市開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目決策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究[D];長(zhǎng)安大學(xué);2014年

5 熊澤群;城市開(kāi)發(fā)片區(qū)轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展策略研究[D];華僑大學(xué);2014年

6 夏雷;基于核心價(jià)值的城市開(kāi)發(fā)控制指標(biāo)量綱研究[D];山東建筑大學(xué);2012年

7 張華;城市開(kāi)發(fā)與區(qū)域社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展關(guān)系的研究[D];新疆師范大學(xué);2008年

8 王嘉淵;城市開(kāi)發(fā)與街區(qū)公共性的衰落[D];吉林大學(xué);2013年

本文編號(hào)：1994785