發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-15 19:23

  本文選題：變形預(yù)測 + 時(shí)序分析法�。� 參考：《西南交通大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：邊坡的變形預(yù)測與預(yù)警研究一直以來都是巖土工程領(lǐng)域的重要課題。邊坡的準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測和及時(shí)預(yù)警不僅有利于邊坡的整體安全,也有利于周邊生命財(cái)產(chǎn)的安全。本文從預(yù)測與預(yù)警兩個(gè)角度著手,結(jié)合數(shù)學(xué)理論與數(shù)值模擬手段,進(jìn)行邊坡的變形預(yù)測模型和分級(jí)預(yù)警閾值的確定的研究工作,主要研究內(nèi)容與成果如下：1.基于時(shí)序分析法,以邊坡變形監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)為位移時(shí)間序列,分解趨勢項(xiàng)位移與季節(jié)項(xiàng)位移,引入GM灰色模型與ARMA模型,提出并建立了邊坡預(yù)測的位移分離模型。利用所建模型對(duì)大水田邊坡數(shù)據(jù)作位移預(yù)測分析,并與常規(guī)模型進(jìn)行預(yù)測精度的對(duì)比,結(jié)果表明位移分離模型具有更好的預(yù)測效果。2.基于工程類比法,選取了影響滑坡相似程度的9個(gè)因子(邊坡角、斷層節(jié)理發(fā)育程度、滑動(dòng)破壞模式、滑動(dòng)面深度、巖體結(jié)構(gòu)、巖體基本質(zhì)量、降雨量、地下水及開挖爆破)。對(duì)各因子進(jìn)行了分級(jí)量化,并利用層次分析法確定其影響權(quán)重。由此提出確定邊坡相似程度的計(jì)算方法。3.收集了24個(gè)典型滑坡及其相關(guān)資料,主要涉及邊坡的地質(zhì)構(gòu)造條件、水文氣候條件及破壞前的位移變化情況等。根據(jù)滑坡三階段規(guī)律,確定把邊坡進(jìn)入中加速階段、初加速階段及安全儲(chǔ)備系數(shù)為1.25的等速變形后期時(shí)的三個(gè)變形速率作為滑坡位移速率預(yù)警閾值。4.對(duì)布沼壩露天礦西幫邊坡運(yùn)用基于工程類比法的預(yù)警閾值方法進(jìn)行分析,找到與其最相似的已滑邊坡——撫順西露天礦西幫人卷車滑坡,給出了邊坡三個(gè)級(jí)別的位移速率預(yù)警值2.62mm/d、3.27mm/d及12.13mm/d。利用Midas/GTS軟件模擬西幫邊坡的分步開挖,計(jì)算得到坡體進(jìn)入初加速階段與中加速階段時(shí)的累計(jì)位移分別為130mm與400mmm,與基于工程類比法的位移速率預(yù)警值對(duì)應(yīng)的累計(jì)位移值150mm與470mm基本吻合,說明該位移速率預(yù)警閾值的確定方法具有一定現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。
[Abstract]:The study of slope deformation prediction and early warning has always been an important subject in geotechnical engineering field. Accurate prediction and early warning of slope are not only conducive to the overall safety of slope, but also conducive to the safety of life and property around the slope. From the angles of prediction and early warning, combining mathematical theory and numerical simulation, this paper studies the prediction model of slope deformation and the determination of the threshold of graded warning. The main research contents and results are as follows: 1. Based on the time series analysis, the displacement separation model of slope prediction is proposed and established by introducing GM grey model and ARMA model, taking slope deformation monitoring data as displacement time series and decomposing trend term displacement and season term displacement. The model is used to predict and analyze the displacement of large paddy slope data, and the prediction accuracy is compared with the conventional model. The results show that the displacement separation model has better prediction effect. Based on the engineering analogy, nine factors (slope angle, fault joint development, sliding failure mode, sliding surface depth, rock mass structure, basic rock mass quality, rainfall, groundwater and excavation blasting are selected. The influence weight of each factor is determined by analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Therefore, a calculation method for determining the similarity degree of slope is put forward. In this paper, 24 typical landslides and their related data are collected, which mainly involve the geological and structural conditions of the slope, hydro-climatic conditions and displacement changes before failure. According to the law of three stages of landslide, the three deformation rates of the slope in the middle acceleration stage, the initial acceleration stage and the late stage of isokinetic deformation with safe reserve coefficient 1.25 are determined as the early warning threshold of landslide displacement rate .4. Based on the analysis of the early warning threshold method based on the engineering analogy method, the slope of west side of Buzhuaba opencast mine is analyzed, and the most similar landslide is found in the west side slope of Fushun West Open-pit Mine. The displacement-rate warning values of 2.62 mm / d 3.27 mm / d and 12.13 mm / d are given for the three levels of slope displacement. The Midas/GTS software is used to simulate the step excavation of the west slope. The accumulative displacement of slope at the initial acceleration stage and the middle acceleration stage is calculated to be 130mm and 400mmm, respectively, which is basically consistent with the cumulative displacement value 150mm and 470mm corresponding to the early warning value of displacement rate based on the engineering analogy method. It shows that the method of determining the threshold of displacement rate warning is of certain practical significance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TU433

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)會(huì)議論文 前3條

1 姚寶魁;孫玉科;;白灰廠滑坡及其變形破壞機(jī)制研究[A];中國典型滑坡[C];1986年

2 姚寶魁;孫玉科;;宜昌鹽池河磷礦山崩及其崩坍破壞機(jī)制[A];中國典型滑坡[C];1986年

3 王清云;姚運(yùn)生;周明禮;;雞鳴寺滑坡[A];自然邊坡穩(wěn)定性分析暨華鎣山邊坡變形趨勢研討會(huì)論文集[C];1991年

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本文編號(hào)：1893598