本文選題：Bayes理論　切入點(diǎn)：極值-I型　出處：《建筑結(jié)構(gòu)》2016年S1期

【摘要】：建筑結(jié)構(gòu)極值風(fēng)速預(yù)測(cè)的研究在結(jié)構(gòu)設(shè)計(jì)與安全使用領(lǐng)域具有重要意義。基于Bayes理論提出極值風(fēng)速預(yù)測(cè)方法,采用Monte Carlo數(shù)值模擬方法產(chǎn)生服從極值-I型分布的偽風(fēng)速母樣,基于偽風(fēng)速母樣分別采用基于Bayes理論和最大似然估計(jì)理論的極值-I型風(fēng)速預(yù)測(cè)方法進(jìn)行風(fēng)速預(yù)測(cè),并與偽風(fēng)速母樣的理論值進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析。研究結(jié)果表明:與最大似然估計(jì)法相比,采用基于Bayes理論建立的極值-I型風(fēng)速預(yù)測(cè)模型進(jìn)行風(fēng)速預(yù)測(cè)的精度更高。
[Abstract]:The study of extreme wind speed prediction for building structures is of great significance in the field of structural design and safe use. Based on the Bayes theory, the method of extreme wind speed prediction is proposed, and the pseudo-wind speed master sample is produced by using Monte Carlo numerical simulation method. Based on the pseudo wind speed master sample, the extreme I wind speed prediction method based on the Bayes theory and the maximum likelihood estimation theory is used to predict the wind speed. Compared with the theoretical values of pseudo-wind speed master sample, the results show that, compared with the maximum likelihood estimation method, the prediction accuracy of extreme -I wind speed prediction model based on Bayes theory is higher than that of maximum likelihood estimation method.
【作者單位】： 長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)公路學(xué)院;同濟(jì)大學(xué)土木工程學(xué)院;中國(guó)建筑設(shè)計(jì)院有限公司;
【基金】：中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)專項(xiàng)資金項(xiàng)目(CHD2012JC077)
【分類號(hào)】：TU312.1

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