本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于貝葉斯理論的區(qū)域建筑冷熱負(fù)荷預(yù)測模型的應(yīng)用研究　出處：《湖南大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 區(qū)域建筑 冷熱負(fù)荷 預(yù)測模型 貝葉斯理論 準(zhǔn)確性與適用性

【摘要】：近年來,區(qū)域供能技術(shù)的研究和應(yīng)用逐步興起。其中,對區(qū)域建筑的冷熱負(fù)荷準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測是區(qū)域能源技術(shù)開發(fā)及推廣的重要基礎(chǔ)。本課題組在分析現(xiàn)有的建筑負(fù)荷預(yù)測方法的基礎(chǔ)上,提出一種基于貝葉斯理論的區(qū)域建筑冷熱負(fù)荷預(yù)測模型,是專門針對在區(qū)域能源規(guī)劃階段缺乏詳細(xì)建筑信息的一種區(qū)域建筑冷熱負(fù)荷預(yù)測方法。由于該方法提出后缺少工程實例驗證和分析,所以本文將通過對實際案例的分析對此方法的準(zhǔn)確性和適用性進(jìn)行驗證與分析。本文首先對基于貝葉斯理論的區(qū)域建筑冷熱負(fù)荷預(yù)測模型進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)介紹,為了驗證該方法在不同氣候區(qū)的適用性、在不同功能類型的區(qū)域建筑的適用性以及在冷負(fù)荷和熱負(fù)荷的預(yù)測上是否都一樣適用。選擇3個案例:案例1——寒冷地區(qū)某城市的某住宅小區(qū),案例2——夏熱冬冷地區(qū)某城市的某學(xué)校,案例3——嚴(yán)寒地區(qū)某城市的大型綜合生活區(qū)作為驗證案例,采用Design Builder能耗模擬軟件作為工程模擬軟件以及Matlab作為數(shù)值計算軟件。通過對三個案例基本信息的調(diào)研與統(tǒng)計,分別建立各自區(qū)域的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)單體建筑,并進(jìn)行動態(tài)負(fù)荷的模擬獲取逐時/日動態(tài)負(fù)荷。其次,將得到的各個案例的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)建筑的動態(tài)負(fù)荷分別作為先驗信息,將調(diào)查和統(tǒng)計得到的各案例對應(yīng)地區(qū)的其他區(qū)域?qū)?yīng)逐時/日負(fù)荷值作為樣本信息,分別將每個案例的先驗信息和樣本信息代入貝葉斯回歸模型,得出各自的后驗信息,以此作為各案例的負(fù)荷預(yù)測因子。將最終得到的修正結(jié)果與對應(yīng)的簡單面積疊加法得到的預(yù)測結(jié)果以及實測負(fù)荷值進(jìn)行對比,并根據(jù)建筑負(fù)荷預(yù)測方法評價指標(biāo)(逐時/日相對誤差、均方根相對誤差以及最大誤差比)分析各案例的預(yù)測精度。通過對三個案例的誤差結(jié)果的分析和比較,可以證明所提出的預(yù)測方法較簡單面積疊加法的準(zhǔn)確性更高。再由橫向比較三個案例的相對精準(zhǔn)度,分析得出該方法的適用性:1)對區(qū)域建筑的夏季冷負(fù)荷和冬季熱負(fù)荷都是適用的;2)適用于我國各類建筑熱工區(qū)域的區(qū)域建筑負(fù)荷預(yù)測;3)大多數(shù)類型和規(guī)模下的區(qū)域建筑的負(fù)荷預(yù)測,都是適用的;4)在樣本信息質(zhì)量越好數(shù)量越多的情況下,預(yù)測效果越好。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the research and application of regional energy technology gradually rise. Among them, the cold and heat load on the regional building accurate prediction is an important basis for regional energy technology development and promotion. This paper based on the analysis of the existing building load forecasting methods, put forward a forecasting model of regional building cooling load based on the theory of Juliu bay that is specific to the lack of detailed information on the construction of regional energy planning stage of a region and cold load forecasting method. Due to the lack of engineering examples and analysis method, so the accuracy of the analysis of the actual case by this method and applicability are verified and analyzed. This paper firstly introduces the the building area of the cold and heat load prediction model based on Bayesian theory, in order to verify the applicability of this method in different climatic zones, in the different type of functional area The applicability domain architecture as well as in the prediction of cooling load and thermal load are the same if applicable. 3 cases: a case of 1 - City in cold area of a residential area, 2 case - a city in hot summer and cold winter area of a school, a large 3 - a case of cold region city comprehensive living area as to verify the case, using Design Builder simulation software as engineering simulation software and Matlab as the numerical calculation software. Through the investigation and statistics of the three cases of basic information, establish their respective regional standard single building, simulation and dynamic load for hourly dynamic load / day. Secondly, the dynamic load of each standard building the cases are used as prior information, corresponding to other regions corresponding to the case area investigation and statistics of the hourly / daily load value as the sample information, respectively, each The case of the prior information and the sample information into the Bayesian regression model, we get their posterior information, as the case of the load forecasting factor. The final results will be corrected with the corresponding area of simple superposition of the predicted result and the measured value of the load ratio, and the evaluation index according to the hourly building load (on the relative error of mean square error and the maximum error ratio) analysis and prediction accuracy for each case. By analyzing and comparing the error results of three cases, the accuracy of prediction can prove that this method is simple area superposition method is higher. By the comparison of the three cases of the relative accuracy. Analysis of applicability of the method is derived: 1) on the regional building cooling load in summer and winter heat load are available; 2) regional construction suitable for China's various types of pre load thermal building area (3) most of the load prediction of regional buildings under most types and scales is applicable; 4) the better the quality of samples is, the better the prediction effect is.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TU831.2

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本文編號：1405850