本文關(guān)鍵詞：復(fù)雜項(xiàng)目活動(dòng)不確定性對(duì)進(jìn)度績(jī)效的影響研究　出處：《南京航空航天大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 項(xiàng)目活動(dòng)不確定性 進(jìn)度績(jī)效 活動(dòng)重疊 活動(dòng)迭代 系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)仿真

【摘要】：在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈且高違約金的市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)中,項(xiàng)目完工期至關(guān)重要。隨著中國(guó)改革開(kāi)放30多年以來(lái),經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)一直處于高速發(fā)展,大型復(fù)雜項(xiàng)目接踵而至,比如世界最大填海造地項(xiàng)目——上海臨港新城,工程總投資250億元,世界最長(zhǎng)的高速鐵路項(xiàng)目——京滬高速鐵路,工程總投資2200億元等。一個(gè)項(xiàng)目在計(jì)劃工期內(nèi)完工并交付使用是投資者最關(guān)心的核心問(wèn)題之一,也是項(xiàng)目管理的最主要的內(nèi)容之一,對(duì)于大型復(fù)雜項(xiàng)目也不例外。復(fù)雜項(xiàng)目具有高度不確定性,其不確定性體現(xiàn)在項(xiàng)目活動(dòng)間的高度耦合,經(jīng)常性項(xiàng)目活動(dòng)重疊,大量信息迭代,實(shí)施周期長(zhǎng)以及可能進(jìn)行多次返工等方面。在項(xiàng)目活動(dòng)不確定性的影響下,復(fù)雜項(xiàng)目通常無(wú)法在計(jì)劃工期和計(jì)劃成本內(nèi)完成。因此,在項(xiàng)目完工期的研究基礎(chǔ)上,將項(xiàng)目成本和質(zhì)量,一并作為進(jìn)度績(jī)效。為了控制項(xiàng)目活動(dòng)的不確定性對(duì)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度的影響程度,即從項(xiàng)目活動(dòng)重疊、活動(dòng)返工和活動(dòng)迭代等方面,研究它們對(duì)進(jìn)度績(jī)效的影響情況。因此,本文從四個(gè)方面展開(kāi)研究,第一,在獲得早期信息和完成信息的基礎(chǔ)上,分析了活動(dòng)重疊的實(shí)現(xiàn)方式,然后采用設(shè)計(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)矩陣的方法,描述和分析了活動(dòng)重疊對(duì)返工、項(xiàng)目完工期和質(zhì)量損失的影響;為了發(fā)揮活動(dòng)重疊正向效益,在成本的角度構(gòu)建活動(dòng)重疊綜合效益模型。第二,為了分析活動(dòng)迭代對(duì)項(xiàng)目完工期的影響,在順序迭代下,采用馬爾科夫鏈的方法估計(jì)耦合任務(wù)的完工期。第三,為了反映項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度狀態(tài),采用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)仿真方法模擬項(xiàng)目活動(dòng)的進(jìn)度狀態(tài),分析了輸出時(shí)間因子變動(dòng)和輸入時(shí)間因子變動(dòng)對(duì)項(xiàng)目完工期的影響情況,識(shí)別出使得項(xiàng)目完工期波動(dòng)比較大的時(shí)間因子和對(duì)時(shí)間因子的比較敏感的項(xiàng)目活動(dòng)。第四,以“海洋模塊鉆機(jī)建造項(xiàng)目”為例,分析活動(dòng)重疊對(duì)進(jìn)度績(jī)效的影響,估計(jì)迭代的項(xiàng)目完工期和模擬項(xiàng)目活動(dòng)進(jìn)度狀態(tài),驗(yàn)證上述研究的有效性,為項(xiàng)目完工提出了作者的建議。
[Abstract]:In the fierce competition and high penalty in the market economy, the completion of the project period is very important. Chinese since 30 years of reform and opening up, economic construction has been rapid development, large and complex projects followed, such as the world's largest land reclamation project of Shanghai Lingang New City, a total investment of 25 billion yuan project, the world's longest high-speed railway project of Beijing Shanghai high speed the railway project, a total investment of 220 billion yuan. A project plan in the period of completion and delivery is one of the core issues of most concern to investors, but also the project management is the main content of a, is no exception for large and complex projects. The complex project has a high degree of uncertainty, the uncertainty of high coupling in project activities the current project activities overlap, a large amount of information iteration, long implementation cycle and possible uncertainty etc. Duoci rework in project activities The qualitative under the influence of complex projects often can not be completed in the plan period and planned cost. Therefore, the completion of the project based on the study period, the project cost and quality, as well as schedule performance. In order to control the influence of project uncertainty on the progress of the project, from project activities and activities overlap, rework activities iteration, to study their impact on the schedule performance. Therefore, this thesis, from four aspects: first, in the early and complete information based on the information, analyzes the implementation of overlapping activities, and then using the method of design structure matrix description and analysis of the activities of overlapping rework, influence the completion of the project time and quality loss; in order to play the positive activity overlapping benefits, construction activities in the perspective of the cost of overlapping comprehensive benefit model. Second, in order to analyze the activities of project completion iteration The effect in sequential iteration, using the method of Markov chain to estimate the coupled task completion. Third, in order to reflect the project progress status, using system dynamics simulation simulation project progress status, analysis of the output time factor and input time factor to the project completion stage effects, which identify the completion of the project the time period of relatively large fluctuations in the factor and the time factor is more sensitive to the activities of the project. In fourth, the "ocean module drilling rig construction project" as an example, analysis of activity overlapping on schedule performance impact, the completion of the project period of iterative estimation and simulation project progress status, verify the validity of the research, for the completion of the project the suggestions put forward by the author.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京航空航天大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TU722

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