【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的快速甚至過(guò)度的發(fā)展,房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格對(duì)人民生產(chǎn)生活的影響越來(lái)越大,為了利用貨幣政策有效的調(diào)控房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格,引導(dǎo)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)綠色健康地發(fā)展,本文將房?jī)r(jià)引入到貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制中進(jìn)行分析。另外,我國(guó)各地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平不同,各地區(qū)金融結(jié)構(gòu)存在一定差異,貨幣政策通過(guò)房?jī)r(jià)在各地區(qū)傳導(dǎo)的效果是否也具有區(qū)域性差異,是一個(gè)具有理論與現(xiàn)實(shí)意義的問(wèn)題。本文首先對(duì)貨幣政策房?jī)r(jià)傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制進(jìn)行理論分析,從貨幣渠道和信貸渠道兩個(gè)方面了解貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制原理,再將貨幣政策房?jī)r(jià)傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制分為兩個(gè)階段進(jìn)行理論分析:第一個(gè)階段是貨幣政策對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)的傳導(dǎo);第二階段是房?jī)r(jià)對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的傳導(dǎo)。根據(jù)理論基礎(chǔ),借助圖表對(duì)傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制中相關(guān)指標(biāo)的現(xiàn)狀和趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行直觀的觀察。然后,將全國(guó)分為東部、中部、西部三個(gè)地區(qū),利用我國(guó)2003-2015年31個(gè)省市的季度數(shù)據(jù),分地區(qū)建立面板向量自回歸模型(PVAR),通過(guò)矩估計(jì)、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)圖研究不同區(qū)域貨幣政策房?jī)r(jià)傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的差異,并通過(guò)了模型的穩(wěn)定性判別,證明估計(jì)的有效性。結(jié)果表明貨幣政策房?jī)r(jià)傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制在各地區(qū)是通暢的,但是各地區(qū)的傳導(dǎo)過(guò)程不同:貨幣供應(yīng)量在東部地區(qū)和中部地區(qū)對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)的影響更顯著;利率在東部和西部地區(qū)對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)影響更為顯著,并且都為負(fù)向影響;三個(gè)地區(qū)房?jī)r(jià)對(duì)投資的影響都較為顯著;中部和西部地區(qū)的房?jī)r(jià)變動(dòng)對(duì)消費(fèi)的抑制效應(yīng)更為顯著,而東部地區(qū)房?jī)r(jià)只有通過(guò)利率渠道傳導(dǎo)時(shí),才會(huì)對(duì)消費(fèi)產(chǎn)生較明顯的影響。最后,根據(jù)文章的實(shí)證結(jié)果分析,從金融機(jī)構(gòu)體制的完善、制定區(qū)域化購(gòu)房的限制政策、引導(dǎo)人口流動(dòng)等方面提出了相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the rapid and even over-development of the real estate market in our country, the influence of the real estate price on the people's production life is becoming more and more important. In order to effectively adjust the real estate price by using the monetary policy, the real estate price is led to the green and healthy development of the real estate. In this paper, the house price is introduced into the monetary policy transmission mechanism for analysis. In addition, the regional economic development level of our country is different, there is a certain difference in the financial structure of each region, and whether the monetary policy has regional difference through the effect of house price conduction in various regions is a problem with both theoretical and practical significance. In this paper, the mechanism of monetary policy house price is analyzed theoretically, and the principle of monetary policy transmission mechanism is known from two aspects of money channel and credit channel, and the mechanism of price conduction of monetary policy is divided into two stages for theoretical analysis. The first stage is the conduction of the monetary policy to the house price; the second stage is the conduction of the house price to the real economy. According to the theoretical basis, the present situation and the trend of the related indexes in the conduction mechanism are visually observed with the help of the graph. Then, the whole country is divided into three parts of the east, the middle part and the west, and the self-regression model (PVAR) of the panel vector is set up in the sub-region by using the quarterly data of the 31 provinces and cities in 2003-2015, and the difference of the price conduction mechanism of the monetary policy in different regions is studied by the moment estimation and the impulse response function diagram. And the validity of the estimation is proved by the stability judgment of the model. The results show that the monetary policy house price conduction mechanism is smooth in all regions, but the conduction process of each region is different: the effect of the money supply in the east and the central region on the house price is more significant; the effect of interest rate on the house price in the eastern and western regions is more significant, and the effect of the negative effect is negative; The effect of house prices on investment in the three areas is significant; the change of house prices in the central and western regions is more significant to the effect of consumption, and only when the price of the east region is conducted through the channel of interest rate, it will have a more obvious effect on consumption. Finally, based on the analysis of the empirical results of the article, relevant policy suggestions are put forward from the aspects of the improvement of the financial institution system, the development of the restriction policy of the regional house purchase, the introduction of the population flow and so on.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F822.0;F299.23

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